A little scheduling note as we go into the All-Star Break. This weekend looks like it will be a one article day on Saturday and then one on Sunday before we are off for four days next week. I will have a brief HR Derby Betting guide for Monday’s derby once some more odds get posted for that and then radio silence Tue, Wed and Thu.
Absolutely nothing. It’ll be like I didn’t exist for those three days. Which honestly, is probably a good thing for all of you. No MLB, no Taysom Hill tweets, no complaining about MLB scheduling, etc… And then Friday will hit us with a 14 game slate and then I’ll be bitching and moaning about Juan Soto not being on the main slate.
But for now, let’s enjoy this weekend and before you know it College Football season will be upon us.
WEATHER
We should be clear of any big issues tonight.
Tonight we have the return of Carlos Rodon to the mound making his Yankee debut and he is doing it against Jameson Taillon who returns to Yankee Stadium as a visitor.
Nobody is above 10k on DraftKings even though we have a LHP with a 27% whiff rate against the Brewers, Zac Gallen against the Pirates and Corbin Burnes/Yu Darvish/Justin Verlander/Dylan Cease also going today. DraftKings just said fuck it, enjoy the cheap pricing and build whatever you want — FanDuel Style. I honestly don’t hate it today because it’s better to just make the depth of the pool even rather than make pricing so extreme that everyone builds the same way.
TOP PITCHERS
Zac Gallen (DK: $9600, FD: $10,100)
Gallen got hit by the Pirates in PNC earlier this season, a rare occurance for him and he has given up a HR in each of his last six starts, but the guy is an absolute machine at home, very comfortable in the closed roof environment at Chase Field and I would wager plenty of money that the D’Backs offense gives him support vs Rich Hill today.
Andy Abbott (DK: $9900, FD: $10600)
When do the wheels fall off on the young kid, that’s what I would like to know? This isn’t to imply that he doesn’t clearly have some talent and isn’t going to be a quality pitcher long term. But everyone has their struggles at some point and Abbott having it against the worst team vs LHP this year would be a wild bet to place, so we’re not going to blindly fade him for that reason.
To their credit, the Brewers are trying to mix things up in the lineup order lately but still you can’t fix stupid and you can’t fix Owen Miller, Blake Perkins and Brian Anderson’s whiff rates vs LHP.
SP2 OPTIONS
Aaron Civale (DK: $7700)
You could probably throw 6 innings against the Royals and be a viable SP in your DraftKings lineup tonight… So too can Civale.
Daniel Lynch (DK: $6000)
I expected Lynch to settle in as a big league arm this season because historically lefty pitchers and tall pitchers in general take more time to develop. It’s a mechanical thing where tall folks just need more reps to get the consistency down and lefties in general tend to take longer for whatever reason. A back injury slowed him down but he has a 1.24 WHIP, a lower BB% rate and has allowed 33% hard contact compared to the troubling 46% over his first two seasons. He’s pitching better and he isn’t trying to just strike everyone out, which he won’t be able to do vs Cleveland — but another 100 pitch, 6+ inning solid outing is going to get you good results tonight.
OTHER PITCHING NOTES
Justin Verlander should pitch extremely well vs the Padres even at his old age, but I sense some fireworks in this series from both sides, maybe even a benches clearing incident. I give the advantage to the Mets bullpen to get onto the field before the Padres pen, they ran out last night and should be in better shape for the fake tough guy sprint.
RED SOX
J.Turner, Devers, Verdugo, Duran, Yoshida
Boston’s hitting well again & Rafael Devers SHOULD be pushed out by every DFS Optimizer in the world tonight. He’s $4900 on DraftKings, Luis Medina’s been better over his last three but mostly fortunate with 12 walks total in his last 49 batters faced. The guy now gets to try and figure out his command vs Duran/Verdugo/Turner to start things off and if Devers doesn’t clear the bases, then Yoshida will. That said, Justin Turner is VERY key to a stack here, do not have Boston exposure without the Ginger.
BRONX ZOO
Cubs: Suzuki, Swanson, Hoerner
Yanks: Volpe, Torres, Higgy
Appropriate nickname here for these two clowns pitching. Happy C vs his former SP at home day with Higgy HOPEFULLY being the man behind the dish tonight for the Yanks. Chicago will hit well in Yankee stadium, they should hit Rodon a little bit here too & Suzuki/Swanson are too cheap
RANGERS
Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe, Leody Tavares
I would not encourage going 4+ Rangers to start things off just because it really limits your flexibility throughout the lineup. They should have plenty of men reach base and lots of cases where you see 2 men on if you look at the GameCenter in your favorite live app today. Walks, singles and clutch RBI hit opportunities for Nate Lowe, Jonah Heim and Leody Tavares.
CATCHER
It’s catchers on a Friday and half the time you’re gonna be punting with the cheapest guy who has a green check mark next to them. So don’t give me shit about playing Higgy tonight because he is gonna be batting 9th for a home team. C vs his former SP and he’s hit well of late + is coming off a rest night.
- Kyle Higashioka
- Jonah Heim
- Shea Langeliers
FIRST BASE
It’s old man night at 1st Base
- Justin Turner
- Anthony Rizzo
- Joey Votto
SECOND BASE
Did you know? Mookie Betts has 10 HR on Friday’s this season, by far the most of anyone. Now you do.
- Mookie Betts
- Marcus Semien
- Kyle Farmer
THIRD BASE
Best infield position for depth today.
- Rafael Devers
- Nolan Arenado
- Alex Bregman
- Evan Longoria
SHORTSTOP
- Anthony Volpe
- Tim Anderson
- Dansby Swanson / Nick Ahmed
I will now give you a minute to process the names above. Yes. I, Steve Renner, would not laugh if you backed Tim Anderson tonight against Jordan Montgomery who has pitched well in 2023 for the Cardinals. Volpe is cheaper and probably does more besides slap a single through and then flash some cheap ass gang sign symbols like a 10 year old white kid in the suburbs would do after he just achieved a new level on GTA in his room on a Sunny Summer day with boogers dripping down his shirt — because that’s Tim Anderson. Only Tim Anderson isn’t white of course… Speaking of white boys, I do like Dansby Swanson and a random Nick Ahmed homer tonight if you are into that kinda thing.
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Julio Rodriguez
- Jarren Duran
- Kyle Tucker
- Byron Buxton
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Nando Tatis Jr.
- Masataka Yoshida
- Lane Thomas
- Alex Verdugo
OUTFIELD – Value
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Leody Tavares
- Brent Rooker
- MJ Melendez
- Kyle Higashiokoa – C – NY Yankees – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Justin Turner – 1B – Red Sox
- Julio Rodriguez – OF – Mariners
- Mookie Betts – 2B – Dodgers
- Lane Thomas – OF – Nationals
- Rafael Devers – 3B – Red Sox
- Leody Tavares – OF – Rangers
- TIM ANDERSON – SS – WHITE SOX – HOLY F**** I might be on crack today.
- BONUS ………… Anthony Rizzo – 1B – Yankees
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Mariners/Astros
- Mets/Padres
- Cubs/Yankees
- Athletics/Red Sox
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Reds/Brewers
- Cardinals/White Sox
- Royals/Guardians
ML Targets
- Whichever team takes the lead in the Cardinals/White Sox game … take the other side.
- Orioles
- Reds