I was certainly not expecting Jameson Taillon to shut down anyone and I definitely was not expecting an 11 game ‘Main’ slate on DraftKings today which starts at 1:00 pm. FanDuel did what I expected them to do and will have their ‘Main’ slate roll at 4pm.
The games that are DK only include Cubs/Yankees, Jays/Tigers, Cardinals/White Sox, Orioles/Twins
WEATHER
Royals at Guardians … This one has PPD risk, they should be able to get it in though.
And since today is not a Friday night “popular” slate, we have accurate pricing on pitchers with three guys in the five figure range on DK.
MY THREE PITCHERS
Kevin Gausman (DK: $11,500)
It’s the Tigers, they are not good and Gausman is good. That’s the dynamite analysis you need to know my friends. Gausman has the best xWOBA projected advantage today, he’s coming off a regular amount of rest and should be able to have a great outing to justify paying for him.
Tyler Wells (DK: $9000)
I suspect we’ll get another low scoring Orioles/Twins game today and while Sonny Gray is likely to give up fewer hits/walks, it’s Wells who has the better statistical advantage in terms of strikeouts. He also does not have the disadvantage of having just faced the Twins where as Gray saw Baltimore a week ago and that usually leans towards the hitters in the second meeting.
Brady Singer (FD: $6600) & Gavin Williams (DK: $7000, FD: $8500)
For FanDuel users, Brady Singer is in play because you do not have options of Gausman & Cole and he is a viable bargain at $6,600. On DraftKings, trust in Gavin Williams a little bit more since the Royals are whiffing a ton and even though they’ve got a prior history with him a couple weeks ago I don’t think they’re gonna go off today because they cannot string together long innings.
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS
I suspect you’ll see a decent amount of G.Cole & K.Gausman lineups paired together. Each is likely to be 40%~ owned if I took a rough guess and maybe 15% of those have both since there are 11 games to optimize/punt around some cheap sub 3k hitters today. It’s not a horrible strategy but I also don’t sense a dominant Cole outing.
Chalky mid tier arms are likely Matt Manning, Miles Mikolas and Gavin Williams.
Alex Wood is what DraftKings is listing as the Giants pitcher but they announced it will be Ryan Walker as the opener and then a ? after that. Wood is a logical guess since he has not pitched since the 2nd.
Everything to focus on for hitting should come from the 4PM window of games today.
REDS & BREWERS
CIN: Someone’s probably busy writing about how Elly is going to slow down now. No. He’s not. He might be on cycle watch today.
MIL: Adames and Yelich are both putting together good PA lately and Milwaukee flips to a side they should do well in with being able to get Brian Anderson in a good matchup against Weaver and Cincy’s mid-relief is their pen weakness.
GIANTS
Yastrzemski, Pederson, Bailey
PHILLIES
Turner, Bohm, Realmuto
CATCHER
- William Contreras
- Patrick Bailey
- Manny Pina
FIRST BASE
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Joey Votto
- Nate Lowe
SECOND BASE
- Jonathan India
- DJ LeMahieu
- Nick Gonzales
THIRD BASE
- Rafael Devers
- Josh Jung
- Alec Bohm
SHORTSTOP
- Trea Turner
- Elly De La Cruz
- Willy Adames
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Jorge Soler
- Christian Yelich
- Mike Yastrzemski
- Lane Thomas
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Joc Pederson
- Bryan Reynolds
OUTFIELD – Value
- Joey Gallo
- Ezequiel Duran
- Jesse Winker … Feels so gross
- Trea Turner – SS – Phillies – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Rafael Devers – 3B – Red Sox
- Mike Yastzemski – OF – Giants
- William Contreras – C – Brewers
- Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Cardinals
- Jonathan India – 2B – Reds
- Christian Yelich – OF – Brewers
- Jorge Soler – OF – Marlins
- BONUS …. Elly De La Cruz – SS – Reds
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Reds/Brewers
- Rockies/Giants
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Cubs/Yankees
- Jays/Tigers … 1st 5 innings under
- Orioles/Twins
- Royals/Guardians
ML Targets
Kinda like some dogs today…
- Athletics
- Nationals
- Phillies