Closing out the first half of the MLB DFS season with 10 games on the Main Sunday slate today.
WEATHER
Cubs at Yankees – This and the game in Boston have some Thunderstorm chances with the %’s being much higher and longer duration here.
All other games on the MAIN slate should play. The worst looking one today is the 12:00 pm Showdown spot between Texas and Washington.
MY TWO PITCHERS
Jesus Luzardo (DK: $9,900 / FD: $10,300)
On the narrative side you have the road Phillies coming off an early Saturday afternoon game yesterday with a 4 day vacation looming after today and they had all night in South Beach to sit around and do what? I’m pretty sure Bryce Harper was sitting in his room staring at a candle with one eye until it went blind, Trea Turner had his VR headset on and was on level 7 of some Dungeons and Dragons type game while Craig Kimbrel sat quietly in the corner just staring at him plotting someone’s death. The rest of the team? Half of them hitched on with Alec Bohm and Edmundo Sosa while the other half went out with Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos… The Bohm and Sosa group were passed out drunk by 11pm and are definitely not playing today while the Schwarber/Castellanos side, well, we can’t share what that group did but I doubt they ever went to sleep. Yes, my friends, welcome to South Beach Sunday 2023….
Oh, on the analytical side, Luzardo has been fantastic at home all season, he carries a 32% K rate on LHH and a 28.3% K rate on RHH and should post a 7+ strikeout spot today… Lock him in.
Lucas Giolito (DK: $8,800, FD: $10,000)
If you believe the Cardinals show up today then God Bless you my friend. Even if they do, we’re not backing someone like Brady Singer here, so with confidence I would go Giolito on either site.
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS
I really like both Luzardo and Giolito today, and we have a good amount of depth on this slate.
Guys like Nola, Ryan, even Eflin vs Atlanta are all going to pitch well enough that I don’t see them being blown up & I didn’t even mention Bieber vs the Royals who also should be fine. So the upside in going to a ‘sleeper’ today just isn’t there.
That said, Domingo German peaks my interest slightly, as does JP Sears.
The likely chalk today will come from Cleveland, Boston and Minnesota. Of which I do not see any value in going 4+ from any of those teams today. So we limit our stack exposure down to just two teams so that we avoid being ‘wrong’ instead of trying to ‘cover all the bases’.
MARINERS
Teoscar Hernandez, Julio Rodriguez, JP Crawford, Ty France
Seattle has the boost of being on the road for that 9th inning AB, which could be critical if the Astros just decide to burn through their bullpen today after Bielak starts. He’s coming off his best start vs Colorado but is still not good enough to take advantage of Seattle’s wing and miss rates — I expect some hard contact from the Mariners today.
BREWERS
Yelich, Contreras, Tapia
Milwaukee always hits well at home in day games, they have faced Lively recently and a couple key guys (Contreras/Yelich/Adames) are all having fantastic weeks so this could be a nice spot to jump on a value bat like Raimel Tapia if he hits 5th again to clean up the bases.
CATCHER
- William Contreras
- Tyler Stephenson
- Ryan Jeffers
FIRST BASE
Big time contrarian spot today, yes Matt Olson probably takes Eflin deep and yes we have value hitters elsewhere, but I honestly like Pratto/Cooper against tough SP as well. I would use Ty France only in a full Seattle stack where you hope he gets on base and scores when others drive him in…
- Garrett Cooper
- Nick Pratto
- Matt Olson
SECOND BASE
- Sunday Whit Merrifield vs a Lefty leading off
- Edouard Julien
- Jordan Diaz
THIRD BASE
- Matt Chapman
- Alex Bregman
- Jose Ramirez
SHORTSTOP
- Amed Rosario …vs Yarbro? Coming off the IL? At home? On a Sunday???? For $3900? He’s going over his 1.5 hit prop today.
- Willy Adames
- Matt McLain
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
Seattle is the key here with Teo and Julio leading the way. If they decide to let Julio sit before the ASG back in their home park then boost Luis Robert Jr up here in his spot. Yes, I am going with Melendez to hit a LiC homer off Bieber.
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Christian Yelich
- Julio Rodriguez
- MJ Melendez
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Adam Duvall
- Riley Greene
- Byron Buxton
OUTFIELD – Value
- Raimel Tapia
- Max Kepler
- Brent Rooker / JJ Bleday
- Mike Tauchman
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Mariners – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Garrett Cooper – 1B – Marlins
- Whit Merrifield – 2B – Jays
- Amed Rosario – SS – Guardians
- Alex Bregman – 3B – Astros
- William Contreras – C – Brewers
- Luis Robert Jr. – OF – White Sox
- MJ Melendez – OF – Royals – LiC
- BONUS …………… Christian Yelich – OF – Brewers
TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS
Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…
- Reds / Brewers
- Royals / Guardians
- Mariners / Astros
Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.
- Athletics / Red Sox
- Phillies / Marlins
ML Targets
- Athletics
- Marlins
- Rays
- White Sox