MLB · August 1, 2023

The Dongers Club – August 1st

This is how every Tuesday night should be.  We get a near full slate and the avoidance of the Marlins and the Phillies in a game that probably has some HR juice in it – but who cares, we have plenty of other good options tonight.

The MLB trade deadline is tonight as well, so we’ll expect some late scratches and news but I do not anticipate any big name players being dealt.

 

WEATHER

Very clear

 

TOP OPTIONS

BRAYAN BELLO — DK: $8,900 | FD $8,500

We may just go auto-pilot on the RHP vs the Mariners the rest of the way out, doesn’t matter who takes the mound at this point.

ZAC GALLEN — DK: $10,500 | FD $10,600

Second have Gallen has cooled off a good amount and he has not been as dominant away from Chase Field, but neither concerns me as the Giants are slugging just .319 over their last 10 games and should not hit well here at home in a night game.  This is an okay spot to do a SP game stack but Gallen is by far the better option between him and Cobb in my mind.

LANCE LYNN — DK: $7,900 | FD $9,400

Lynn will make his Dodger debut and look here, he gets Oakland.  I’ll have my eyes big time on this game because I am very much back on the Dodgers to Win the World Series band wagon and Lynn performing well is pivotal for that happening.

OTHER NOTES

Anyone promoting Spencer Strider tonight is going to take an L in my mind.  The Braves have zero reason to push him down the stretch the final two months of the season and the Angels have too much power for him not to give up 1 or 2 hard hit doubles/homers today.  No reason to shop here on a 14 game slate.

The model loves Johan Oviedo today, and he’ll likely be a little popular at his price.  Too inconsistent for me to take that risk though.

 

ORIOLES

Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander

The Blue Jays decided to bring back Hyun-Jin Ryu right before Yusei Kikuchi pitches tomorrow AGAINST BALTIMORE.  Holy fuck the Orioles could not be running any better right now.  What in the world.  Zero hesitation here.  Play Mountcastle, who … uh, is $3600?  What?  The Birds have moved Mountcastle into the #2 spot, kinda curious here, but we’ll still take it.

TIGERS

Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Caprenter – 

…. Death… Taxes…. TIGERS VS PIRATES SCORING 50 RUNS!  Nice value from Detroit who should get some LiPNC action going today.

RANGERS

Josh Jung, Nate Lowe, Travis Jankowski

I like Texas a good amount but you can’t convince me to use Lowe over Mountcastle at 1B.  Jung is a great play tonight.

 

CATCHER

  1. Adley Rutschman
  2. Salvador Perez
  3. Connor Wong

 

FIRST BASE

  1. Ryan Mountcastle

 

SECOND BASE

  1. Mucho Gusto, me llamo Bradley, I’m Noc Hoerner than Ron Jeremy
  2. Jeff McNeil
  3. Jorge Polanco … Can be used at 3B on DK now

 

THIRD BASE

  1. Josh Jung
  2. Rafael Devers
  3. Manny Machado

 

SHORTSTOP

  1. Willy Adames
  2. Francisco Lindor
  3. CJ Abrams
  4. Amed Rosario

 

OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore

  1. Anthony Santander
  2. Yordan Alvarez … Might be going on a nice 5 game HR streak
  3. Riley Greene
  4. Eloy Jimenez

 

OUTFIELD – Tier 2

  1. George Springer
  2. Henry Davis
  3. Jarren Duran

 

OUTFIELD – Value

This is the best justification for forcing in Strider tonight that someone could make.  You can get a TON of value offensively on this slate and OF is a good spot for it too.

  1. Travis Jankowski
  2. Kerry Carpenter
  3. Edward Olivares
  4. Corey Julks
  5. Oscar Gonzalez

 

  1. Ryan Mountcastle – 1B – Baltimore – Orioles – Chairman of The Dongers Club
  2. Willy Adames – SS – Brewers
  3. Josh Jung – 3B – Rangers
  4. Anthony Santander – OF – Orioles
  5. Eloy Jimenez – OF – White Sox
  6. Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros
  7. Salvador Perez – C – Royals
  8. Nico Hoerner – 2B – Cubs
  9. BONUS …… Amed Rosario – SS – Dodgers

 

TODAY’S BETTING ANALYSIS

Good Over Upside — Meaning these have best potential to go way over…

  • BAL/TOR
  • DET/PIT
  • CWS/TEX

 

Good Under Upside — Meaning best potential to be a 2-1 or 5-2 type game.

  • BOS/SEA

 

ML Targets

  • Baltimore
  • Detroit

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