Compared to some of the early season slates this is one I really like and who knows maybe it’s because I know I don’t have to suffer through another Saints offensive debacle on Sunday ruining my weekend. But in all seriousness, despite having some key teams on BYE or outside of the Main slate window I think we actually have some very intriguing games for DFS purposes. Detroit vs Baltimore is fantastic, so too is Chargers/Chiefs and Packers/Broncos should deliver some level of excitement. Beyond that, we’ll have another few games which garner our attention and I wouldn’t be shocked to see some higher scoring real NFL games this week (just not high DFS scores because ownership gets spread out).
Lineup Strategy:
This is a week where my ‘Ambush’ plays are high priced studs. So for me, it’s a good week to have 3+ lineups if you are typically a one lineup and roll person and I would have different type of builds based upon these plays. I’ll summarize it all at the end of the article.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
PATRICK MAHOMES (DK: $8300, FD: $9200) … Easily my favorite pay up spot on the board at Quarterback and we’ve been waiting for Mahomes to have that MVP type game all season long. He has not had a game with more than 3 passing touchdowns, but has completed 75% passes two weeks in a row, Kelce is healthy and the WR are getting more comfortable in their roles (even with Hardman back). Pachecho looks to be a chalky RB option but after seeing Dak have success over the middle vs the Chargers I can’t see how Mahomes isn’t connecting for 4 or more TD this week.
OTHERS I LIKE
MATTHEW STAFFORD (DK: $6500, FD: $6700) … 300 yards and 3 touchdowns. Those are the measurables we need from Stafford in a game without Kyren Williams and an expectation that the Rams should just take the advantage they have in WR/CB matchups.
JORDAN LOVE (DK: $5800, FD: $7800) … I really like Watson, Doubs and Musgrave. So let’s do some simple first grade level math here and realize that we should like the sub $6000 Quarterback who has some rushing upside as well.
OTHER QB NOTES
- Geno Smith in 2023 is no longer Geno Smith in 2022 and I have to see it consistently before I re-consider him this season. He’s a fade with Kenneth Walker being such a logical pivot.
- Lamar Jackson was on my original list of 3 QB’s, but I dropped him once I kinda cooled off on that game being an explosive shootout.
- I have zero interest in all the backup/bad QB’s starting this week.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
AUSTIN EKELER (DK: $8600, FD: $9000) … It seems nobody wants Ekeler anymore and the Chiefs defense should not be ignored in a game where Mahomes is your QB1. This siply means that Ekeler becomes a key in the passing game out of the backfield and with high price tags should be sub 10% in the best ‘game’ on the slate.
CORE RUNNING BACKS THIS WEEK
Three guys below are easily my “Big 3” RB this week, beyond the sneaky Ekeler above…
KENNETH WALKER III (DK: $7000, FD: $8800) …Three straight pretty good outings and the 28th ranked rush defense coming into a home ‘get right’ game. Best chalky RB play on the board who you just lock in and move on.
JEROME FORD (DK: $5200, FD: $6600) … Love that Watson is going to be back for Cleveland, this should lighten it up for Ford who went from the FAAB darling to the forgotten man and now will benefit from a massive OL vs DL matchup for Cleveland.
JAHMYR GIBBS (DK: $6300, FD: $6200) … Common sense play? Could be or could be a sharp fade. Gibbs gets the perceived ‘usage’ boost due to injuries, but I caution that Baltimore will hold good time of possession here which means he HAS to get all his volume in the 2 minute drills when applicable and Goff IMO isn’t the best play outdoors in Baltimore. If he as 1k more, I would avoid, but here on DK at $6300 it should be hard for him to not be good enough.
ALSO LIKE …
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Brian Robinson Jr.
- Roschon Johnson (Value)
- Jaleel McLaughlin (Value)
THE AMBUSH PLAY
COOPER KUPP (DK: $9500, FD: $9700) … Kupp only drew 7 targets in a game when the Rams didn’t have the ball much early and then ran it most of the second half. And he still dropped a 30 spot. He might see his normal 15 targets here this week vs Pittsburgh, which can only translate into a big score. With lots of value at RB and WR3 we can easily lock in Kupp and move on.
MID RANGE
TERRY McLAURIN (DK: $5400, FD: $7200) … Much better play over on DraftKings as the volume is the main key for his production. He can very reasonable produce a 7-75 game which puts you in decent waters and we hope for the TD variance to pan out.
MARQUISE BROWN (DK: $5300, FD: $6700) … All the data is going to lock in on Hollywood today. The guy’s seeing 10+ targets per game and facing the 32nd ranked defense in allowing receptions to WR. Dobbs is locked in on Brown and so should we.
CHRISTIAN WATSON (DK: $5600, FD: $6600) … As mentioned above we have a lot to like here in the Green Bay passing attack. Denver’s passing defense shouldn’t be showing any signs of improving from where it ranks & the vertical game with Watson could thrive today.
THE VALUE
KADARIUS TONEY (DK: $3800, FD: $5500) …Yeah, I’m a sucker for the punishment. If and when Mahomes does throw for 5 TD though, Toney is a lock to get two of them.
WAN’DALE ROBINSON (DK: $3800, FD: $5600) … All of the Giants? With their offense struggling to put up big scores the receivers here are dirt cheap against Washington’s 31st ranked defense vs WR. I like Hyatt as well, who has to be gaining more trust with his quality play and he is the bare nuts minimum at $3000 on DK. WanDale’s TGT% expectation though is too hard to ignore.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
TRAVIS KELCE (DK: $8000, FD: $8500) … Kelce hasn’t had the smash games this season, unless of course we are … nope, not gonna go there. Anyways, moving on now, we just look at Kelce vs the Chargers and historically this was a Tyreek Hill spot, but at home with the extra rest here too I would be shocked if Kelce wasn’t 1 or 2 of the 4 to 5 touchdowns that Mahomes throws this week.
CHEAP TE OPTIONS
These all qualify as FLEX options which can essentially be pivots for going the cheap TE2 route with Kelce. I say this because I really have no desire for any of the mid range TE compared to Kelce.
- MICHAEL MAYER (DK: $2700, FD: $4900)
- LUKE MUSGRAVE (DK: $3300, FD: $5000)
- CADE OTTON (DK: $2900, FD: $4700)
I am really sick of picking defenses. I’m finally in the boat that they’re boring and useless for DFS. I guess I am broken, but you know what ISNT broken? The Cleveland Browns defense, and if they don’t get a turnover or four and a defensive score vs the Colts then they are definitely going back into the FRAUDS category.
- CLEVELAND BROWNS … Complete miss-match DL vs OL
- SEATTLE SEAHAWKS … Hollywood Brown’s volume aside, the Seattle defense is in line for a couple takeaways, sacks and if we’re lucky that late afternoon D/ST Touchdown.
- BALTIMORE RAVENS … Really expect Goff to struggle here. Detroit is a very good team, this game though is going to be like 19-16, come down to a late Justin Tucker FG and the Ravens defense has a very sneaky game.
And, anyone really nauseated that the Raiders D/ST is $3800 on DK???
AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Most overlooked player(s):
Austin Ekeler – RB – Chargers
Favorite Core Builds:
Obviously going all four of the ‘Ambush’ plays together in a lineup is going to be Stars and Scrubs type build and isn’t the best thing in NFL DFS. But I would present a correlation strategy with building 3 lineups this week as such:
- Mahomes + Ekeler + 3 mid range/value WRs such as Toney, Brown, Watson
- Mahomes + Kelce + Ford
- Ekeler + Kupp + No Chiefs
Favorite Pay Up Spots
Mahomes, Ekeler, Kupp, Kelce
Game Stacks
Chargers/Chiefs
Commanders/Giants
Steelers/Rams
Packers/Broncos
Favorite Bets
Washington/NY Giants over 37.5
Upset Calls
None