Finally a week with what appears to be a loaded set of GOOD and entertaining NFL games. A couple odd scheduling spots here in divisional games that I want to point out.
- Chiefs at Broncos – Quick turn around after their TNF game last week.
- Eagles at Commanders – I’m not sure I trust Washington to cover twice vs the Eagles in one season.
Most likely games which I would expect to have potential to ‘shoot out’, even though there is really no such thing as a shoot out in the NFL anymore
- LA Rams vs Dallas
- Kansas City vs Denver
Games which I think have no shot of being high scoring
- Cleveland at Seattle
Not a big pay up week for me on Quarterbacks. This means I’ll pass on the Hurts, Mahomes, Lamar big three this week. In the case of each of them you’re going above the 8k martk on DraftKings and it’s almost a $2000 difference from other options who will be within reason. If Hurts/Lamar rush 2 TD in then I tip my hat and move on.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
- Matthew Stafford (DK/FD) … If Dak winds up beating Stafford it’s because he ran one in, otherwise Stafford is the right play here even for a slightly higher price tag. We shouldn’t trust the Rams to have a big day rushing the football and we shouldn’t expect McVay being distracted by a newborn son to limit Stafford from peppering his two dominant WR. I love the pre-snap motion that the Rams can use against a good defense like Dallas & open up allow big catch days and a 300+ passing yard game for the Texas kid going home.
SOMEONE ELSE I LIKE
- Russell Wilson (DK) … Advantage the losing team when meeting twice in a VERY short window. Also the advantage that we know they’ll want to attack through the air to keep up with the Chiefs because the rush and play defense approach just ain’t gonna get it done.
OTHER QB NOTES
- Zach Wilson … The Giants were really bad defensively to start the season and have turned the page of late, yet we’ll see a ton of chalk going to Breece Hall and a very dirt cheap Zach Wilson is sitting here staring us in the face in a ‘home’ game where he should put up good enough numbers. If you pay down, why not Wilson.
- CJ Stroud vs Bryce Young … I feel like this one is getting overlooked a little bit. The #1 vs #2 QB from the past draft is one thing but both offenses had the BYE to reset things for their young Quarterbacks and in Houston’s case we know they want to throw it a ton — something that could present upside for Carolina defense — but also could lead to this game becoming a back and forth sneaky good game.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
- Tony Pollard … A tradition as old as time, any RB who can catch the ball and do damage in open field vs the Rams is going to be on my radar. The fact that it comes in what I feel is the best DFS game on the slate and we’re all in.
CORE RUNNING BACKS THIS WEEK
- Travis Etienne … I really like the Jags going into Pittsburgh & the Steelers rush defense is a good spot to pick on with someone playing very well like Etienne right now. They’re also coming off the 10 day rest and are about to go into their BYE. The Jags should roll big time.
- Saquan Barkley … Lots of love going to Alvin Kamara for all the receptions he is getting, but I caution that both Jammal Williams & Kendre Miller will be used today — plus the return of Juwan Johnson does hurt Alvin on third downs. Meanwhile Barkley is going up against the 31st ranked defense to RB out of the backfield this season & is the entire Giants offense right now.
ALSO LIKE …
- Breece Hall (sure, fine) … But let’s not overlook Barkley too.
- Gus Edwards … See Swift below and Edwards here, great advantage in the running game for Edwards against Arizona and certainly a nice pivot off Lamar Jackson.
- D’Andre Swift … I like Swift and Smith to do the damage for the Eagles as Washington rolls coverage onto AJ Brown.
- Dameon Pierce … Welcome to the value that I doubt anyone uses. Carolina’s rush defense remains too soft, they give away too many 3 and outs and lots of short fields to opponents which feeds into the opponent RB having a viable day and a touchdown is a lock for Pierce.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
- Drake London … I jumped London up here and moved DeVonta down — partially because of price, but also because I really don’t see how anyone on Tennessee is going to stop him on third down and in the red zone. This SHOULD be a big London game even if it’s not a big “shootout” potential game because of the styles of both teams. Tennessee might have trouble getting enough pressure on Ridder, so London will have 6-80-1 which is a great starting point in lineups at $5100
CORE LOCKS
- Cooper Kupp … Go right back to the Kupp play this week. He will not flop two weeks in a row. Period.
- Zay Flowers … Gotta like Baltimore offense, but Lamar should be able to hand it off or just complete easy passes. So instead of paying for him, take the WR.
MID RANGE
- DeVonta Smith … A Washington destroyer who did nothing last time they met and has really taken a step back this season in DFS production. That should change here this week with a second meeting against a dead mans walking defense which would be smart to roll double coverage over to A.J. Brown. I would be shocked if Smith doesn’t get open on a crossing pattern and turn it up field for a big gain today.
- Diontae Johnson … Johnson had 5-79 in his return last week against a relatively decent pass defense so far in the Rams. Now he gets a much weaker one and I believe that Jacksonville should play very sound offensively pushing this to be a spot where Pittsburgh is tempted to throw it a little more than they might want.
- Christian Watson … Packers will win this week. Packers gotta have a good passing game too and Love who has been inconsistent at times will find Watson for a big play.
THE VALUE
- Rashid Shaheed … Saints have lots of illness issues, Olave with Carr issues (see what I did there?), etc., etc., etc. The one consistency though is that Carr will chuck it to Sheed two times in this game, he catches one and might get a punt return TD here finally… Happy Shaheed week 2023.
- Curtis Samuel / Jahan Dotson … I hate trying to guess here, both are cheap and heck even McLaurin isn’t that expensive either. Dotson might be hard to trust right now so Samuel makes a little more sense but either way Washington’s only gonna get support from their WR.
Random Anytime TD Picks:
I don’t like these guys to have huge DFS games, but I do like them to score
Jerry Jeudy, Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk
The big guys like Andrews, Kelce, Goedert and Kittle will not hurt you at all. But I am not here to write up 10 different TE’s and would look for some value options.
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
- Chig Okonkwo … TE vs the Falcons, I am here again. Dirt cheap and paired with cheap QB allows for the RB/WR to be our pay up spots this week. I’m confident he will go over 4 Targets with the bums at QB here having to keep it simple & a 4 catch for 40 yard and a bonus touchdown game will smash this 3k price.
- Evan Engram … His usage in the offense is legit and a good reason why Calvin Ridley sucks
OTHER TE OPTIONS
- Tyler Higbee
- Seattle Seahawks … Cleveland had their big comeback win last week with PJ Walker, this week they’re gonna look like ass in Seattle. Cleveland defense is viable as well.
- New Orleans Saints … Dennis Allen has faced Gardner Minshew twice and he has dominated him both times, confusing the often confused looking QB into some big time mistakes. Should have more of that today as it seems that most of the Saints illness issues are on the offensive side.
- Jacksonville Jaguars … Jags off extra rest + extra passes by Kenny Pickett for them to Pick It to the end zone. Heyooo, I’ll be here all week
- Green Bay Packers
AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Most overlooked player(s):
- Matt Stafford to Cooper Kupp
Favorite Core Builds:
- Matthew Stafford
- Tony Pollard
- Drake London
Favorite Pay Up Spots:
- Cooper Kupp
- Saquan Barkley
Game Stacks:
- Rams/Cowboys
Favorite Bets:
- Jacksonville -2
- Rams +7
- Seahawks -4
Upset Calls:
- Rams over Cowboys