A few game notes today
- Michigan at Penn State: Great game to watch for football entertainment. I think it has sneaky high scoring potential as well.
- Texas Tech/Kansas, Tulsa/Tulane: 11 am local start time(s) in these games.
No singular game above others today.
Washington State at California (-1)
Expect Jaydn Ott to get 20+ touches for the Cal Bears. The Washington State defense is fairly balanced vs rush/pass but the real benefit is going to be the increased plays that Cal runs. For the Cougars, their passing game has been up and down and thus the top 3 WR (Victor, Williams, Kelly) are all sub $6k. That’s the best path to this offense instead of locking on Cameron Ward, but for a full stack I don’t mind it.
Wash St: Cameron Ward, Lincoln Victor, Josh Kelly
California: Jaydn Ott, Trond Grizzell
Oklahoma State (-2.5) at UCF
Two teams coming off big wins, and in the case of the Cowboys it’s been multiple big wins at home for them. Now they go down to Florida and I expect UCF to somehow win this game. John Rhys Plumlee continues to play his way out of a future football career but if the guy cannot hook up with Javon Baker or Kobe Hudson today then it might just need to end now.
OKST: Ollie Gordon
UCF: John rhys Plumlee, Javon Baker, Kobe Hudson
Tennesse (-2) at Missouri
Oh how I love this game and I love this spot for Mizzou. Brady Cook to Luther Burden all damn game long with Squirrel White running it back on the other side.
UT: Squirrel White
Mizzou: Brady COok, Luther Burden
Arizona (-10.5) at Colorado
Arizona is clearly the better team and deserves every DFS exposure that they are getting today, but I think the data projections are going to be a little too optimistic. I trust Colorado’s defense to continue to “play better” and to not allow Arizona to pop off for a 50 spot. That aside, we should be on this game and I am expecting a little bounce back for the Colorado offense.
AZ: Noah Fifita, Jacob Cowing
COL: Travis Hunter
- Micahel Pratt – Tulane – $8200 … Tulane is a massive home favorite against Tulsa, as they should be and I’m a little nervous about 11am starts down in New Orleans but we’re not getting a great pay up spot today for other high $ Quarterbacks
- Noah Fifita – Arizona – $6000 … Should be close to 50%+ owned today. Even without any rushing upside at a cheap price in a fast paced game against a poor defense he’ll be able to not destroy lineups. I personally think Colorado is going to cover the 10 points but also expect Fifita to throw 2+ touchdowns.
- Brady Cook – Missouri – $7900 … Love the Cook to Burden combination today.
I don’t see much value in fucking around here at RB today, although I have a contrarian RB2 that I looooove and that would be …
Kaytron Allen – Penn State – $5300 … Here he is, this is the RB2 which I feel is contrarian and worth looking at on a gut call whim today. Both PSU RB should be featured against Michigan as the Lions look for the High Noon beat down of Michigan without Harbaugh and I won’t fault you if you want to go Singleton instead, but the PSU backs are the difference makers today.
THE CORE BACKS
- Tahj Brooks – Texas Tech – $7700 … Better play than Ollie Gordon IMO. Kansas will push the pace enough and this game has more offensive possessions than the OKST/UCF one. So Brooks is my #1 RB.
- Ollie Gordon – Oklahoma State – $7900 … And yes, Ollie is just as damn good
- Mahki Hughes – Tulane – $5800 … There are three guys in this range and the other two both play for Clemson (Shipley who is back and Mafah who likely gets some more work). So take the one man Tulane RB who really just has to contend with Pratt in the rushing dept. Tulsa has allowed 20 rushing touchdowns on the season, Hughes at home should get in the box.
- Jayden Ott – California – $7500 … Mentioned above, volume and pace is very good here.
MY CORE PLAYS
- Luther Burden – Missouri – $6900 … Most obvious play of the season folks, lock it in. Tennessee’s total YPG allowed in the passing department is low but they do allow 65% completion rates and Burdern is one of the best WR they have seen all season — he’s gonna shred the Vols.
- Jacob Cowing – Arizona – $7000 … It’s a minimal $400 difference between Cowing and McMillan — both will get the 25-30% target share and Cowing is the preferred lean. Give me the guy 2 years older and the true #1 when going on the road.
- Squirrel White – Tennessee – $5800 … Fresh off a “get right” game against UCONN where White got a 82 yard TD catch I would like to see the Vols run their offense through him here today. Perfect run it back spot with Burden, or take Ramel Keyton for $1100 cheaper.
ALSO LIKE TO DO WELL
- Josh Kelly – Washington State – $5600 … There are 3 big options in this Wazu offense and one of them is going to be 56% owned or higher. This is an easy pivot to someone who should get steady volume
- Kobe Hudson – UCF – $5200
- Travis Hunter – Colorado – $6400
DRAFTKINGS CORE OPTIONS
QB: Noah Fifta
RB: Tahj Brooks
WR: Luther Burden
WR: Jacob Cowing
BETS
Penn State ML
Colorado +10
Purdue ML
Missouri ML
Oklahoma St/UCF under 65.5