Happy CFB end of season as we get into rivalry games with a nice Friday slate and then Saturday’s Big Slate as well. You’re going to see some chilly games today and tomorrow as well, so beware of that factor late in the season.
MIZZOU at ARKANSAS
I honestly like this game more than the TCU / Oklahoma one simply because we have the better team on the road. I think we’ll get a nice farewell game from KJ Jefferson here, who below $8000 is always in play and at $7300 he shouldn’t have much of a hard path to get 3x.
- Missouri – Brady Cook, Cory Schrader, Luther Burden
- Arkansas – KJ Jefferson, Andrew Armstrong
UTSA vs Tulane
Nearly 60 degrees down in New Orleans with no rain or wind, and a 2:30 mid afternoon local start time as well. Holy fuck this game is going to moon my friends and that could even wind up being Tulane winning by 40 if their defense shows up.
Can Frank Harris and Joshua Cephus break the slate? It all comes down to that. Nobody will use them today despite Harris waking up of late and Cephus having a + advantage in completions, yards and touchdowns today. I can’t start a lineup without Cephus at $6500.
- UTSA: Frank Harris, Joshua Cephus
- Tulane: Michael Pratt
While there are some quality QB options today, I can’t find myself forcing in 2 QB into builds unless its a correlated game stack.
CORE OPTIONS
KJ Jefferson – Arkansas – $7300 … The better games have come on the road but a good deal of that has been skewed by his last tow home games being against Auburn and Texas A&M. Missouri is a different type of foe, one that also will keep the tempo up all game for Jefferson to potentially have an extra possession or two. He shined in a bowl game last year and this is gonna feel like a bowl game send off for him as well today on Senior Day.
DONT MIND IN GAME STACKS:
Harris, Pratt, Cook
OPTING NOT TO PLAY
Gabriel, Henigan
I don’t hate either but I want the S-FLEX to be a RB or WR today unless it’s a game stack option from one of the three above.
We pretty much know what we are getting at RB this week and it’s a nice stable of high end options.
CORE OPTIONS
Jacory Croskey-Merritt – New Mexico – $6000 … One has to feel nervous about chasing someone coming off a 200 yard rushing game. But when you go from that to facing the 123rd ranked rush defense in a HOME game there’s almost no sense being too ‘cute’ here. Throw on top of that he is at home, only $6000 and we could use a nice balanced lineup CORE today and we’re just clicking his name and moving on.
Blake Watson – Memphis – $7300 … The last two road games for Memphis have produced massive fantasy games for Watson totallying 22-83-2 and 38.4 FPTS against Charlotte and then 17-169-2 for 43.9 FPTS against North Texas. I would imagine a similar recipe is in order today against a terrible Temple rush defense.
Ashton Jeanty – Boise State – $7500 (Could be Limited) … Boise should cover the 7 today, and if they do then Jeanty probably had a 120 yard rushing game with 2 touchdowns. He got 12 carries last week returning from injury and probably see’s around 15 today.
Peny Boone – Toledo – $7700 … Trust the ground game in what should be a competitive, but chilly game in the MAC. Boone is pricey considering Finn has the chance to steal some critical carries, but Boone has been far more consistent and is averaging nearly 7 YPC this season. Central Michigan is worse vs the pass, but should limit that today in chilly conditions.
Cory Schrader – Mizzou – $7200 … See my note below on Burden. You gotta have one of the top options for Mizzou today. I slightly lean Burden and with other good RB options here Shrader is more of a 4th RB option over locking him in as one of your top two.
Value RB: There are none
CORE OPTIONS
Joshua Cephus – UTSA – $6500 … Unlike some of the other options on this list I am highly confident that Cephus is going to be the leading skill position guy for UTSA. Tulane’s pass defense does allow over 66% completion rates on the season and UTSA’s options after Cephus are pretty bleak in my mind.
Luther Burden – Missouri – $7600 … In no scenario will Missouri come into Arkansas and not get a TD / big game from EITHER Burden or Schrader. You cannot build a DFS lineup today without ONE of them, if not both. Don’t be stupid here. Burden is the lean for me given the flow that Arkansas defense has funneled teams with in the red zone.
Roc Taylor – Memphis – $6300 … I cannot imagine actually rostering Seth Henigan and NOT using Roc Taylor too. Like, do we think Henigan is going to go over his 22 YPG average here today and just NOT carve up the 104th ranked pass defense as well?
Terell Vaughn – Utah State – $6800 … A lot in this game is pointing us towards the over and Terrell Vaughn when Utah State does pass is their clear consistent option. Jalen Royals is not far behind and works in a full game stack too.
TIER 2 PLAYS
Andrew Armstrong – Arkansas – $5800 … I’ll go down with the KJ ship, if he throws it should be to Armstrong or Isaac TeSlaa, who is a nice value at $4100
Drake Stoops – Oklahoma – $6100
Xavier Restrepo – Miami – $6600
VALUE WR
Zae Baines – Temple – $3000
Isaac TeSla – Arkansas – $4100
Kaleb Brown – Iowa – $3900
Dino Tomlin – Boston College – $3600
DRAFTKINGS CORE OPTIONS
QB: KJ Jefferson
RB: Jacory Croskey-Merritt
WR: Joshua Cephus
WR: Roc Taylor
SLATE BREAKDOWN
RB is deep, but the value and upside at WR is much higher today.
Play Blake Watson AND/OR Roc Taylor instead of Seth Henigan
BETS
Arkansas +9
Nebraska -2.5
Utah State / New Mexico OVER 59.5
UTSA / Tulane OVER 51.5
Toledo / Central Michigan UNDER 54.5
Memphis / Temple UNDER 63.5