Anything good on today? A lot of spots where teams could wind out just blowing opponents out in these “rivalry” spots, and then of course the Ohio State vs Michigan game.
UCF (vs Houston)
Houston is coming in off back to back home losses and now ends the season on the road with no Bowl game hopes and ready to go home and mail it in. I would be shocked if they showed up for this game. It’s all UCF stack if anything.
Kobe Hudson has 5 TD in the Knights last two home games. Worth taking a shot on him after Baker had a 100 yard TD game last week, because one of them for sure catches the first TD of the game and is in a nice spot to have a big day. I think UCF Is going to win something like 45 to 17.
- UCF: John Rhys Plumlee, RJ Harvey, Kobe Hudson, Javon Baker
TEXAS A&M at LSU
Some psycho decided to put the Aggies/Tigers game in Tiger Stadium at NOON today? What in the f*** are we doing here. Anyways, that just means LSU defense won’t be as good, which considering they have been dogshit all season brings us to loading up on this spot. It’s hard to know exactly what we’ll get with the coaching change from the Aggies, but I am going to lean on them being pleased here.
Supposedly the team was not happy to be traveling on Thursday’s every week for road games and this week they traveled on Friday for the first time all season. I don’t have to explain the LSU side, but I will point out that both Nabers and Robinson will be sub 5% owned here.
- A&M: Jayden Henderson, Ainias Smith
- LSU: Daniels, Nabers, Thomas … Can’t full stack LSU today, doesn’t make sense unless its some 70-63 8OT game throwback…. Not that these two teams had something like that once or anything.
DUKE
Grayson Loftis, Jordan Moore, Jalon Calhoun (Rodney Hammond nice value for Pitt)
LOUISVILLE
Jack Plummer, Jamari Thrash
I like a lot of under the radar guys who can get you a 20-22 on this slate. Which is tough to stomach when you have both Michael Penix and Jayden Daniels going. Obviously with some value in the Utah QB situation we can try to get either one and have two QB for the average price of 7k, and I don’t mind that at all. So not gonna waste anymore space saying yes, Jayden Daniels is going to put up 30+ FPTS today.
CORE OPTIONS
- JAYDEN DANIELS – LSU – $11,000 … Next question
- JOHN RHYS PLUMLEE – UCF – $8,200 … Houston is going to lay down and just take it today IMO. There should be 2 passing TD and hopefully at least one rushing TD here for Plumlee.
- JAYLEN HENDERSON – Texas A&M – $6,400 … Henderson is expected to fill in again for former LSU Tiger Max Johnson. But there is a slight chance Johnson could be a game time late start here so with this being an early game we can try to monitor that news and make an adjustment if need be. The tempo boost that any LSU opponent gets is going to be great and Henderson has shown enough to trust him in a tough environment.
- LUKE BOTTARI – Utah – $4500 … The numbers are going to make Bottari look a little better than he should here. While he will come off as a ‘dual threat’ option today, lets note that he is a bit smaller and just because it’s Colorado doesn’t mean that he is a no doubt smash play. But then he doesn’t have to do much at 4500 to warrant an option on a slate with tons of nice pay up studs across the board.
UNDER THE RADAR QB
- Jack Plummer – Louisville – $8500
- Grayson Loftis – Duke – $6600
CORE OPTIONS
- OLLIE GORDON – Oklahoma State – $9000 … We get another regular season Ollie Gordon smash spot going up against the BYU rush defense which ranks 113rd and 2nd worst on the entire slate in rush YPG.
- JAYLEN WRIGHT – Tennessee – $5200 … Another home vs bad rush defense spot and this one is much cheaper. I believe Tennessee will ground it out today and then let Milton air it out in their bowl game. Wright had four straight 100+ yard rushing games and touchdowns in 3 of those 4 prior to their last two games against Missouri and Georgia where they were outmatched all game long.
- AIDAN ROBBINS – BYU – $4100 … Sleeper and a value all in one. BYU should get smoked by the Cowboys, but if they are in it for a while then Robbins should be touching it a good amount and a nice 2x value.
- RJ Harvey – UCF – $7200
- JaQuinden Jackson – Utah – $5300
CORE OPTIONS
- JAMARI THRASH – Louisville – $7300 … Nobody is really talking about Louisville football (this is where you insert the, no shit, why would they?). But right now Louisville is primed to finish 11-1 with a home win today and then go into the ACC Championship with a chance to do the CFB Committee a favor should Florida State still be unbeaten. This is a good team with an offense that should be sub 5% owned on the entire slate but faces the 91st ranked pass defense and Thrash dominating the volume is gonna eat Kentucky alive.
- AINIAS SMITH – Texas A&M – $5500 … 6 catches, 100+ yards, thank you have a nice day.
- JORDAN MOORE – Duke – $5700 … The QB switch for Duke has started to take off in the passing department, making Moore and Calhoun guys that are underpriced for their anticipated projections.
- JAVON BAKER – UCF – $6000 … Like the UCF theme? Good, because I am backing those knuckleheads a great deal today. Baker/Hudson is always a nice little debate, but with them likely in a blowout scenario I want the one who gets the early volume & that should be Baker.
- JACOB COWING – Arizona – $6700 … Cowing only saw 3 targets last week despite being a consistent WR1 option for the Wildcats as he didn’t start a week ago and Arizona rolled Utah.
- SAMUEL BROWN – Houston – $6600 … Big failure last week, returns to a nice game-script environment but Houston isn’t gonna do much besides him.
VALUE WR
- Cornelius Johnson – Michigan – $4500
- DeVaughn Vele – Utah – $5000
- Ramel Keyton – Tennesse – $4300
DRAFTKINGS CORE OPTIONS
RB – Ollie Gordon
RB – Jaylen Wright
WR – Jamari Thrash
WR – Jordan Moore
SLATE BREAKDOWN
Find value at QB or RB
BETS
Ohio State / Michigan UNDER 46.5
UCF -14
Duke -4.5
Louisville -7.5
Alabama/Auburn UNDER 47.5