Lets just get this out of the way right now. If you read my College article yesterday then you know that I was throwing caution to the wind on going all in on the Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State game.
And despite some OK State guys having good games, I was fucking right. The reason was that for the price on everyone total in the game to do a full game stack there with other games that had equal potential to ‘shoot out’ it simply made no sense to go full game stack there. And what do you know, we saw a ton of early games going off with far better game stack results.
This leads me directly to the Cowboys vs Eagles and why in the world is everyone auto-stacking this game? Are you drunk? Is this because the best ‘stack’ games one could come up with are London and Sunday Night Football showdown games? Cowboys vs Eagles in Philly? In November? Guys. This is simple. That’s a fucking beat the shit out of each other defensive battle where a couple RB wind up scoring from 5 yards out. Get that stupid game out of your mind, its a great back and forth game of punting and field goals, but not for DFS — not at all.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
CJ Stroud (DK: $6200, FD: $7000) … Stroud has been inaccurate in his young career mostly due to the high volume he attempts each week thus far, and he faces a defense which is among the worst at limiting completions this week, so naturally we’ll be banking on a little boost for him in that area. Throw on top of it that there’s a limited running game potential and I do like Tampa to put up points as well, making this a nice little back and forth contest to invest in
- Also do not be shocked if Baker Mayfield has a good game…
OTHER QB OPTIONS
Geno Smith (DK: $6000, FD: $6600) … The Seahawks are a known good east coast team under Pete Carroll, often adjusting to the travel very well and playing better than every other west coast team in 1PM starts. So I’m already leaning into a good Seattle game and I don’t see how they get there without Geno Smith accounting for 2+ touchdowns and 250+ yards, not blow the slate up type numbers, but a very steady floor.
- Lamar is the BEST pay up QB option on this slate
Aidan O’Connell (DK: $4500, FD: $6200) … This is a pay down QB slate. AOC + Heinicke and a chalky Mac Jones are all viable and my lean is going to AOC because the volume that he should hit Davante Adams with against the weak Giants defense is the key difference.
QB’s to Fade
Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott
The RB options this week all have some massive warts on them. Pricing is decent but we have lots of shared backfield situations and guys that I am a little nervous on.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
Rachaad White (DK: $5300, FD: $6700) … In the last four games when Tampa Bay was a dog, White has had double digit fantasy points. He’s produced back to back games with 6+ catches against Atlanta & Buffalo respectively. Houston hasn’t been a massive funnel to RB in the passing game, but I’m projecting White to get 4 catches for 40 yards to combine with 50-60 yards rushing and since I’m invested in this game, I’ll take that touchdown thank you very much. Add it all up and White’s our safest RB on the board this week to go for 3x.
Jonathan Taylor (DK: $6400, FD: $8000) … I know the volume is split, but RB vs the Panthers are highly efficient and usually find the end zone. He cannot be a TOP elite play though until he gets the majority of the workshare back, but on DraftKings you do not need that for $6400.
CORE RUNNING BACKS THIS WEEK
Kenneth Walker II (DK: $7000, FD: $7600) … He’s gonna catch a few passes as well and Seattle is my top upset pick of the week – I am big on them.
Rhamondre Stevenson (DK: $5400, FD: $6200) … Immediate thought for me seeing Washington lose some DL this week was that their run game and not the pass rush was going to suffer the most. Every projection system out there in the world is hyping up all the Patriots WR and they’re dead wrong in this being a Mac Jones heavy game. Stevenson’s limited in his usage it seems but is always prime for Belichek sneaky high usage game.
Saquon Barkley (DK: $7900, FD: $8500) … Daniel Jones is back, which helps Barkley a ton. The threat of Jones throwing the ball (well, okay, maybe this is a stretch) should open a few holes and the pace in this game could be sneaky good overall — definitely better than Cowboys/Eagles. The ONLY fear I have here, is that Barkley logged THIRTY-SIX carries last week against the Jets. But then, that’s why I am taking the Raiders to win you see…
Jerome Ford (DK: $5300, FD: $7000) … I like Hunt as well, overall I trust the Browns to go through their OL and RB rather than dump it all back on Watson in an “easy” but dangerous trap spot game.
RB’s to Fade
Devin Singletary, Alvin Kamara
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
Nico Collins (DK: $5800, FD: $6800) … One of my guys, getting a dream match-up against the Bucs. Shred em Nico, shred em. If Houston doesn’t throw it 40 times I would be a little shocked, and Collins is going to get 20% of them, leading him to a path for an increase in catches while still racking up the quality yardage game. Nico is a core lock for me.
Davante Adams (DK: $8100, FD: $8000) … Uh, so if you are O’Connell, how did you not walk into the meeting rooms this week and say listen fellas, I’ll run every play you want me to run, but I’m going to throw it to 17 all fucking day long. How? He did that at Purdue with his best WR there, so he’s gonna do it here too. 13 catches, 150 yards and maybe he plays the second half? WR1 have DESTROYED the G-Men this season.
TIER TWO PLAYS
Chris Godwin (DK: $7000, FD: $6700) … Favorite game on the slate, so we need exposure to both teams. Godwin should shread the middle of the field on Houston. I have his expected target share above 26% this week.
Zay Flowers (DK: $5700, FD: $6100) … Flowers had a little bit of a ‘down’ week last week accumulating only 19 receiving yards after being a consistent 50-70 yard producer to start the year. He could see the 100 yard game come this week as Seattle has had some really bad games at limiting top end WR from their opponents.
DJ Moore (DK: $5900, FD: $7600)… Saint killer, that’s all. Can’t really go here on FanDuel.
THE VALUE
Demario Douglas (DK: $4000, FD: $5400) … It’s funny how sometimes the chalk lands on the right play for the wrong reasons. Often times we have injuries that drives everyone to use a cheap player against a bad defense & that is definitely the case with Douglas. But the reason he is the ‘right’ WR for the Patriots is because of what he brings and how it kills the opponents defense. Simply put, speed. Douglas, has 4.4 speed and is setup very well in what New England has otherwise to allow him to catch a couple deep balls, much like Marvin Mims did vs Washington back in week 2.
Mack Hollins (DK: $3500, FD: $5600) … With Drake London out there is going to be ownership on Kyle Pitts. Let me pause for a moment while I laugh my ass off folks. Alright, so Pitts is a little better play this week but why aren’t we looking at the guy who actually will score a touchdown?
Michael Gallup (DK: $3600, FD: $5300) … You know who Michael Gallup is? He’s that 7-hole jack ass for the Cincinnati Reds who randomly come out and throws up a 2 or 3 homer game every 5 weeks. Cheap and potential to get a ton of targets in the right scenario allows Gallup to give me some desire, even though my favorite play in this game is a Defense.
Trey Palmer … More of a full game stack option with TB/HOU than an island play.
WR’s to Fade
AJ Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Chris Olave
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
TJ Hockenson (DK: $5200, FD: $6700) … Assuming the Vikings ARE able to move the ball on offense (they should be), then when they get into the red zone it should be nothing but Hockenson season. A rookie QB’s best friend is the TE and his second best friend is a TE against the Falcons.
OTHER TE OPTIONS
Juwan Johnson (DK: $2900, FD: $4500) … Remember him? Juwan returned last week and played more in the second half as the game went on. The Saints offense should go back to being more snoozefest this week but I love Juwan getting back involved in the offense and Carr actually completing a red zone pass for once in his life for a touchdown. 13 yards, bottom left of your screen to put the Saints up 6-0.
Luke Musgrave (DK: $3300, FD: $4800) … Cox, Ferguson and Goedert have all scored against the Rams this season with TE in general seeing a consistent amount of targets against their defense. I don’t think we’ll see a massive game from Musgrave, but like Johnson he just needs one redzone touchdown here to give you enough to be okay at TE on a bleak week.
Dallas Goedert (DK: $4800, FD: $5800) … This is mostly a defensive/RB game in my mind, but the one receiving option I would lean on is Goedert.
TE’s to Fade
Trey McBride
- Philadelphia Eagles … I absolutely LOVE the Eagles defense this week. The turnovers haven’t been there in 2023 like they were in 2022, but hey, that’s Dak Prescott I see coming into the Linc and this defensive unit has no shortage of sack potential.
- Cleveland Browns
- Green Bay Packers … The $2800 price should push them up on models this week.
- New Orleans Saints … Meh. You know it. I know it. My dog knows it. Yeah, I’m probably gonna use the Saints in a few lineups.
AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Again, I just do not see why we are looking to stack an NFC East outdoor game with the highest priced QB and WR options we can possibly come up with. You guys think this game is going to be 40-35? 31-28? Not even close…
Most overlooked player(s):
- Houston passing attack
Favorite Core Builds:
- QB: CJ Stroud
- RB: Rachaad White
- WR: Nico Collins
- TE: TJ Hockenson
Favorite Pay Up Spots:
- Davante Adams
- Saquon Barkley
Game Stacks:
- Bucs/Texans: CJ Stroud, Rachaad White, Nico Collins, Chris Godwin
- Seahawks/Ravens: Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews
Favorite Bets:
- Tampa/Houston OVER 39.5
- Seahawks +6
- Packers -3
- Patriots -3
Upset Calls:
Seattle over Baltimore