Merry Christmas to all and to all, enjoy this miserable Christmas Eve slate of bad football.
Once again another UGLY week. I believe that fill-ins Trevor Siemian and Taylor Heinicke will “play well”, but you aint winnin shit with them in DFS. I believe that Baker Mayfield & Trevor Lawrence have enough to play for to both have good games. Neither is going over 20 fantasy points.
If you want to pay up to try and steal a 27/30 or that “MVP” type performance in Week 16, it would be from either Dak or Tua, and my stomach is churning but it honestly could be Dak.
Top Plays
Fields is going to be a popular pay up spot and I am not sure why we wouldn’t just take it and move on. Arizona’s not great vs the rush & the weather should not be a big time factor in Chicago. Throw in that the Bears defense is playing somewhat better ball and could give him extra possessions here and it’s enough to warrant using Fields — who could be playing his final Bears games as well.
- Justin Fields
- Dak Prescott … Honestly if you like Tua more then just jam in Tyreek or Waddle.
- Joe Flacco
Sleeper
Another sleeper we need to watch out for? Ryan Tannehill. Does he come off the bench and try to win a job for some team who is going to be pissed off in the off-season and want to change their Quarterback like my spoiled kids want to change their Carr’s every 5 seconds? Seattle could be a major let down spot going into Tennessee folks.
- Ryan Tannehill
Top Plays
I am giving the advantage to the RB who have been carrying the weight for their teams and are also in game scripts where we can confident in the reliability of their teams giving a crap in this game. That would be Achane and White specifically over Taylor, who to me has the best match-up going on the road in Atlanta.
Breece Hall is going to be chalky, but the Commanders rush defense is soft enough for the Jets to get him enough work load at his price that will pay off as a core play.
- Breece Hall
- Devon Achane
- Rachaad White
- Jonathan Taylor
Value Picks
Here is where we get into the real flow of the kind of week that week 16 can be. Rodriguez has taken over as the main rushing back and the Jets are not showing any signs of improving their rush defense. He’s a deep sleeper here to have a good game. Similarly, Ro Johnson, is the main guy for the Bears rushing game not named Justin Fields and can exploit the Arizona rush defense.
- Chris Rodriguez Jr
- Roschon Johnson
Sleepers
Store this one down in the ‘Ambush’ type plays of the week. Green Bay remains alive still, so they’ll try to lean on their one veteran here against a terrible rush defense & the Packers defense themselves should be forcing a ton of 3 and outs. Aaron Jones anytime touchdown or Jordan Love is scoring 3 rushing touchdowns himself. These are the locks of the day.
- Aaron Jones
Top Plays
Plenty of value at RB and also possibly at QB this week, so the heavy volume that Jefferson & Amon-Ra St. Brown in that NFC North game ranks them as the top options overall. I favor Jefferson given the lack of other dominant options around him.
Really believe in the Browns vs Houston’s secondary. Flacco will have time and Cooper will have a big game. Similar logic with Mike Evans, he should score once again.
- Justin Jefferson
- Amari Cooper
- Mike Evans
- Calvin Ridley
Value Picks
- Alec Pierce
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba … Kinda like Tyler Lockett here with Geno back too, but JSN talent for price remains a bargain.
- Parker Washington
Sleepers
- Any of the Lions not named Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Chris Godwin
- Michael Gallup
Not a terrible slate to go 2 TE over 4 WR, although RB is fairly strong too. Evan Engram is essentially a top WR option for the Jags and in a very positive DVP spot.
- Evan Engram
- TJ Hockenson … The main pivot off Jefferson if you choose.
- Trey McBride
- Jake Ferguson
- Green Bay Packers
- Cleveland Browns
- Chicago Bears
AMBUSH CORE PLAYERS
Justin Fields
Breece Hall
Amari Cooper
Evan Engram
BETS
Typically I would just ride against bad teams who have mailed it in and ride home teams. This week is a little tricky though with that.
- Jets -2.5 * Buy it *
- Titans +3
- Browns -2.5