The High Line – XFINITY Series – Call811.com Every Dig. Every Time. 200 – Phoenix Raceway – March 9th, 2024

Overview

In the fourth race of the XFINITY Season the drivers take on the first “short track” of the season. Phoenix features a one-mile flat oval that is characterized as a short track. The drivers will turn 200 laps here in what will be the first of two trips here this season. Much like last week at Las Vegas, track position and pit road performance will play important roles in determining the standout performers of this event.

Strategy

In the first race here last season the majority of the laps were led by race-winner Sammy Smith (92) who started 11th in the field. Other notable lap-leaders included Cole Custer (38 laps led), Austin Hill (22), and John Hunter Nemechek (19). JHN, Hill, and Custer finished sixth, seventh, and 12th respectively. Notable movers included Kyle Busch (started 38th, finished ninth), Parker Kligerman (37th, 15th), and Anthony Alfredo (25th, 14th). This race will feature Cup standout William Byron who’s the highest-priced and presents the best odds to win. Nailing the drivers that we expect to finish well is obviously the key here but finding the driver or two that can lead the bulk of the laps will be just as crucial, especially in GPP formats.

Most comparable tracks: New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Richmond Raceway

Check the NASCAR Discord channel for updates following qualifying

*Note: all pricing is DraftKings focused

Top Drivers

William Byron ($12,000)

Byron will be in the 17 car this weekend in XFINITY and has a win and two top-fives in his XFINITY career at this track. In a Cup car Byron also has a win and two top-fives finishes at this mile-long track in the desert. It’s tough to look at anyone other than Byron as far as being the top dominator regardless of where he qualifies. Fitting him into strong lineups at his salary, though, will pose a bit of a challenge.

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,500)

Another Cup regular in this race is JHN who has performed well here at this level. In seven races at Phoenix JHN has an average finish of ninth and has led 33 or more laps on three seperate occasions (33 in 2018, 39 in 2021’s finale, and 66 in 2023’s finale). He’ll be a nice pivot off of Byron.

Cole Custer ($10,700)

Custer has been the class at this track over the last couple of trips here leading 38 laps here last Spring and 96 here last Fall en route to a win clinching the XFINITY Championship. As we move into more conventional tracks, look for Custer to build off of last season’s momentum at a track he’s been very strong at since coming back to the XFINITY Series full time.

Austin Hill ($9,500)

Speaking of momentum, Hill has been strong early on this season with two wins in the series’ first three races. At this track last year despite two seventh-place finishes, Hill managed to lead 22 and 21 laps. This team is clicking on all cylinders thus far and looking at his price tag, if we get a good qualifying effort here, Hill could present as a strong value as a dominator early.

Brandon Jones ($8,000)

Jones won here back in the first race here in 2020 when he was still with Joe Gibbs racing and has been strong thus far this season with two top-10 finishes. Despite starting deep in the field here last Fall, Jones turned a 22nd-place start into an 11th-place finish. Jones also led 24 laps at Richmond, a similar track to Phoenix as well as posting an 11th-place finish at New Hampshire, another track similar in characteristics to Phoenix.

Anthony Alfredo ($6,700)

Despite two poor qualifying efforts at Phoenix last season, Alfredo showed his ability to driver up to a respectable finish both times. In the Spring he started 25th and finished 14th and then again in the Fall Alfredo began the race way back at 38th only to climb up to a 24th-place finish. These numbers might not jump off the page at first glance, but considering his salary and likelihood to start toward the back-half again, he could present as a solid PD play.