Good Sunday Morning to all of you. The weather is warming up. The Chairman is on fire. We should have a great Sunday slate today and we have Site Synchronicity!
WEATHER
Much warmer today, and while it’s not 90+ degrees out, it does feel much better when you see mid to upper 70’s instead of mid to upper 50’s in the month of April. If it were October, then maybe I would be going the other way around.
The following games are all very nice weather and with very favorable winds blowing OUT.
- MIL/BAL, PIT/PHI, KC/NYM, NYY/CLE, MIN/DET, TEX/HOU
All games play.
A couple remember me spots today. Corbin Burnes against the Brewers and Blake Snell in Tampa against the Rays. Overall the slate just screams runs, runs and more runs everywhere today, so it’s not one where I am leaping to just blindly spend up for pitching, but on the other hand having someone who can rack up the strikeouts is always a nice floor.
Since Snell only has the 1 start (3 innings, 72 pitches) under his belt this year and I believe he’ll have some weird nerves in Tampa, I would fade him at his price. You’re really limiting hte upside there IMO.
Somehow the Brewers are on fire offensively. I don’t know how, but they are. Everything here is telling me don’t do it, don’t go Burnes. So, guess what… I’m gonna listen to my inner self today. No Burnes.
Top Recommendations
BRAYAN BELLO (DK: $7500, FD: $8000) … This is one spot which is still in that early season weather mode. It’s also a spot with very few red flags in the opposing lineup (Trout & Ward) for Bello to navigate through. I like the match-up, love the price, and can live with him serving up one solo HR so long as he can get through 6 innings today.
BAILEY OBER (DK: $6600, FD: $8900) … The entire fantasy community fell in love with Bailey Ober in the off-season and he rewarded them with 8 ER allowed in 1 1/3 IP against the Royals in his season debut — which yes, was on a Sunday. But the Royals have been doing that to a lot of guys this season, and this Tigers lineup is not the Royals. They have 5 batters in the projected lineup who favor Ober for strikeouts, they have 5 projected RHH — also a big boost for him and … well, they’re the Tigers.
JESUS LUZARDO (DK: $8700, FD: $8600) … Casuals will see the Braves and run away. I see a South Beach Jesus on Sunday spot and say what can go wrong? If we are going away from Burnes today then we should be doing it either in a very safe spot or a high strikeout spot. Luzardo has the strikeout capability & until Acuna/Albies get really hot I think we can get through Atlanta without much sweat.
Sunday Sleeper(s)
Honestly, the three guys above are kinda sleepers given the options available today. But if anyone comes out and shoves out of nowhere it would be Michael Soroka for the White Sox.
Other Pitching Notes
- Nestor Cortes … Tough to trust him following a 100+ PC this early in the year and the Guardians are not a big strikeout team. That said, he has somehow managed to dominate Jose Ramirez (0-10) and if he can do that again, he’ll do just fine.
- Jose Berrios … I gave some thought to Berrios pitching a clean game today & then I said no. Why the fuck would you use chalky Berrios against white hot Nolan Jones when you could have Jesus Luzardo for roughly the same price range and way more upside.
- Cole Ragans … Not biting here today. So feel free to use his 14 strikeout no hitter performance while I tilt that.
O-R-I-O-L-E-Sunday’s….
Henderson, Rutschman, Santander, O’Hearn, Holliday
Saying Baltimore is a lock win when they are -198 and Burnes is on the bump is one thing. But while I said Holliday gets his HR yesterday and they sat him, I will be doubling down on that one today. Great value at a weak position, and the rest of the Birdland boys should tee off on Colin Diah-Rea….
PHILLIES
Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, Trea Turner …. (Tellez for Pirates)
Hide the women, protect the rum, kiss your loved ones. This is going to be a blood bath today on both sides. If there are not 14+ runs scored before the 6th inning then something has gone terribly wrong and there’s a long fly ball to left center field by Castellanos and so that will make it 4-0 Phillies, B1.
Other Spots to Look at:
- Rangers/Astros: This is one to look at the stars shining in. Semien/Seager/Carter for Texas and Yordan/Altuve/Diaz for the Astros
- Royals/Mets
CATCHER
William Contreras only caught Corbin Burnes 8 times, and that’s probably because Burnes carried a lofty 4.69 ERA when Contreras was catching him. Maybe Burnes will bean him first AB as a ‘fuck you for sucking as a catcher’ gesture? Maybe Contreras will hit a SOLO HR since he is leading off? Maybe both? Lets get some fireworks boys…
- Adley Rutschman
- Jonah Heim
- Joey Bart
- William Contreras
FIRST BASE
This is a very good position today. Bryce Harper is completely lost right now but with my Phillies love I wouldn’t hate him being included within a Phils stack, but likely he’s the one to fade there considering all these other good + spots and this doesn’t even include MPE guys like Justin Turner, Jake Burger, Alex Kiriloff and Gavin Sheets…
- Ryan O’Hearn
- Rowdy Tellez … As contrarian as they come
- Andrew Vaughn
- Pete Alonso … On fire right now
SECOND BASE
- Jackson Holliday … Day off, Orioles magic, 9-hole grand slam time baby.
- Bryson Stott
- Marcus Semien
THIRD BASE
- Justin Turner … Old man JT gets to face Freeland whom he knows very well from their NL West days
- Maikel Garcia … I have a feeling we find out right away if this game is gonna be high scoring 1st AB top first
- Alec Bohm
- Matt Chapman
SHORTSTOP
- Trea Turner
- Corey Seager
- Gunnar Henderson
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Nick Castellanos
- Nelson Velazquez
- Anthony Santander
- Nolan Jones
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Yordan Alvarez
- Michael Conforto
- Bryan Reynolds
- Evan Carter
OUTFIELD – Value
- Alex Kiriloff
- Gavin Sheets
- Nicholas Castellanos – OF – Philadelphia Phillies – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Rowdy Tellez – 1B – Pirates
- Trea Turner – SS – Phillies
- Jackson Holliday – 2B – Orioles
- Nelson Velasquez – OF – Royals
- Justin Turner – 3B – Blue Jays
- Evan Carter – OF – Rangers
- Anthony Santander – OF – Orioles
- BONUS ………………… Alec Bohm – 3B – Phillies
TOP BETS
Pirates/Phillies OVER 8.5
Brewers/Orioles OVER 8.5
Royals/Mets OVER 8
Twins ML
White Sox ML