WEATHER
All clear
Nobody really blows the socks off tonight. I would avoid Triston McKenzie but he does have decent strikeout upside. I fear walks could push him out sooner than favorable though. Here’s the rankings, the top 2 are my favorites and I have a darkhorse sleeper tonight as well.
- TANNER HOUCK (DK: $8400, FD: $8300) … The choices tonight suck, so Houck against Oakland should be 50% owned and should not be faded just because of ownership.
- REESE OLSON (DK: 8200, FD: $7800) – The Mets suck, I am sorry but they are just BAD. Olson’s one challenge is making sure he doesn’t issue too many walks and the veteran Mets hitters could give him problems there, but I see no major red flags on Olson otherwise.
- KYLE GIBSON (DK: $7900, FD: $8400) – I am stoked for Kyle Gibson to get into the National League and he draws a good spot here in PETCO.
OTHER SP THOUGHTS …
- Joe Boyle … I have been doing this long enough and following baseball WAY longer to have certain “gut” calls on teams in spots. Boston going to Oakland is one of them. They do not have another American League team whose stadium they have hit worse in since 2002, nor is their W% lower in any other spot. Obviously park shift and quality of opponent is the logical thing here, but to me there is more to it. And tonight they draw a SP they’ve never seen who does have good FB velocity in Boyle.
The good ballpark tonight is Chase Field, but with overcast and rain all day in Arizona they are projecting the roof to be closed and even if it opens, it’s not that warm. That aside though, the big outfield does help offense and the Yankees draw the best park boost there for road teams, as they’re hitting decent enough to take advantage. Toronto and Houston is the next best spot and then everything else is generally the same, although the Dodgers at home are always considered a + spot.
It’s still early in the season (duh), so I am not here to be hyping up a ton of over the top 4-5 man stacks, but here are the teams I am expecting to do the best.
- NY Yankees (Trevino, Rizzo, Soto, Torres)
- Houston Astros (Alvarez, Altuve)
- St. Louis Cardinals (Gorman, Goldy, Walker, Contreras) … It dawned on me last night that the LA/San Diego trip that Arenado & Goldy typically rake on is coming at the WORST possible time for both being this early in the season. But we have good upside here and the Sunday Night Baseball concept isn’t a big deal given the location of last night and of course tonight.
CATCHER
- Jose Trevino
- Willson Contreras
- Jake Rogers
FIRST BASE
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr … Great spot for him. He probably homers tonight. Blanco is just confident with two pitches, will leave one up and Vlad will jack it out over the Crawford boxes.
- Josh Naylor
- Anthony Rizzo
SECOND BASE
- Jose Altuve
- Nolan Gorman
- Gleyber Torres
THIRD BASE
- Nolan Arenado
- Jose Ramirez
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa
SHORTSTOP
- Francisco Lindor
- Brayan Rocchio
- Anthony Volpe
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Jorge Soler … Along with Austin Slater, we have the LHP mashers from the Giants, new year, new guy (Soler), same narrative?
- Jordan Walker
- Yordan Alvarez … Hitting ball well, just haven’t gotten that big 2-RBI Double yet
- Joc Pederson
OUTFIELD – Value
- Starling Marte
- Austin Slater
- Brendan Donovan
- Jackson Merrill
- Jordan Walker – OF – Cardinals – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Vlad Guerrero Jr – 1B – Blue Jays
- Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros
- Jorge Soler – OF – Giants
- Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros
- Jose Ramirez – 3B – Guardians
- Francisco Lindor – SS – Mets
- Jose Trevino – C – Yankees
- BONUS …. Juan Soto – OF – Yankees
CORE BUILD
SP – Tanner Houck
1B – Vlad Guerrero Jr.
OF – Jordan Walker
TODAYS BETS
Toronto/Houston OVER 9
Cardinals ML
Mariners ML
Athletics ML