Eleven (11) game slate with one notable game time as the Red Sox/Cardinals are playing at 1:05 EST, but a local Noon start time there in St. Louis.
WEATHER
Good weather overall
- Roof should be closed in Miami.
- Assume roof will be closed in Arlington & Houston.
CORBIN BURNES (DK: $9600 / FD: $9700)
The Orioles certainly are pleased with what they have gotten out of Burnes thus far. You cannot underestimate how valuable taking the mound every 5 days, giving 6 innings, allowing under 3 ER and staying under 100 pitches is. I mean, just ask the Royals, they’ve gotten that exact performance out of Seth Lugo!!! Alright, so there was a slight jab in there at Burnes, but he was the first guy I thought of today in terms of having a bust out “ah shit, why did I fade him” performance. The Mariners on the season rank among the highest in K%, but of late they’ve done better against RHP, which hopefully is the one way his ownership stays down. Because, I don’t see them continuing that today and Burnes should hav ean 8K performance, with potential for 12 if the Orioles do let him go into the 100’s on the PC. Burnes > Nola…
NICK PIVETTA (DK: $8000 / FD: $9200)
I really like Pivetta today, almost enough to really rank him #1 overall beacuse it feels a little uncomfortable. The kind of uncomfortable that makes it even that much better. The guy below him here is the chalky option in the same price range, but when we plug in the data elements around pitch mix and splits, Pivetta actually has an equal opponent ranking. His recent form is good, the start time is early here, and I trust we’ll see a quick, clean game from the tall righty. St. Louis is hitting better of late, but still the Cardinals.
CARLOS RODON (DK: $8400 / FD: $9800)
Carlos Rodon is the guy who stands out as a likely favorite pick today and I don’t have much bad to say about him other than he’s gotta face his former team — which given the team, could turn out to be a big fuck you spot. Obviously the White Sox are as bad as they come, and aren’t showing much of any life at turning things around.
THE SUNDAY SLEEPER
SIXTO SANCHEZ (DK: $6000 / FD: $6300)
South Beach Theory for the first time in 2024? The Mets are definitely that type of team to fit the visitor profile. Honestly, I am not going to sell you hard on this MOSTLY because you can easily just pair two good pitchers together today without needing to go value on SP2. But, in true traditional form, I gotta give you a sleeper here and it sure as hell wasn’t going to be Trevor Williams or Jameson Taillon.
Other Pitching Thoughts
- You can easily justify going Pivetta + Rodon, eating that Rodon chalk, and fading the Burnes/Nola “Ace” guys.
- Brady Singer — price tag too high and too many other better options today.
- Kirby/Paddack – I don’t fuck with Orioles/Guardians at home on Sunday’s.
MINNESOTA TWINS
I am going to age myself here with a little story time that has absolutely nothing to do with Baseball (yet, I am going to tie it in). I am old enough that there was a time when you wanted to go to a music concert you had to sit in line outside of a record store, or the Ticketmaster location at the local mall to be able to buy tickets. Yes, you had to buy the tickets in person! So, folks would end up sitting outside the night before to get in the front of line to be able to get tickets for an event, and where I grew up there was a music festival every summer called the HFStival and that’s where you could see stuff like Foo Fighters, Rage Against the Machine and the Presidents of the United States of America. A classic mix of bands. At any rate…. You are now wondering what the hell this has to do with the Minnesota Twins? Well, absolutely nothing, except, last night I was basically that kid going down to the record store to camp out all night waiting to write up the Twins today after they sucked on Friday, sucked on Saturday and now we finally get that LiC Twins day here today. If you didn’t think I was going back here today, then you don’t know me well enough.
- Max Kepler
- Trevor Larnach
- Carlos Correa
CUBS/PIRATES
There’s no reason for this game to just have a total of 7. The wind blowing in won’t be that much of a factor because its < 10 MPH and it’s a nice Sunny day here. I’ll give a slight lean to the Pirates vs Taillon, but by no stretch am I expecting a clean Keller game either. Should have 4+ runs in the first three innings and then more late as the bullpens choke it away.
- PIT: Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski
- CHC: Seiya Suzuki, Mike Tauchman, Ian Happ, Morel/Bellinger
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
The only way Harper does not homer twice is if the second time through Williams pitches around him and gives up a home run to Bohm. Old me would say you don’t attack Trevor Williams on a Sunday – but those were the days when he was at home in PNC Park. We’re not in Kansas Pittsburgh anymore here Trevor. This is an expensive stack to build around – best to pair with a wildcard SP2.
- Harper, Bryce
- Kyle Schwarber
- Alec Bohm
OTHER GOOD MATCHUPS / ONE OFFS
- Yankees: Yanks power at home right now is turned on and they get Chris Flexen deez Nutz? Trouble.
- Astros: There’s a lock HR here. His name rhymes with Jordan. A good price pivot off Phillies.
CATCHER
- Logan O’Hoppe
- Yasmani Grandal
- Miguel Amaya
FIRST BASE
- Harper, Bryce … Could hit 2 or 3
- Anthony Rizzo … Will hit 1 for sure
- Nathaniel Lowe … Finally happy to see a RHP
SECOND BASE
I think it’s worth finding value at this position where paying up could be chalky but not ideal. Bryson Stott will be hitting 2nd and between Schwarber/Harper, a no doubt lock chalk play for most today.
- Jonathan Aranda
- Bryson Stott
- Edouard Julien
- Nick Gonzales
THIRD BASE
Kinda worth getting weird here. Devers/J-Ram/Bohm obviously rank well. Deep spot.
- Jake Burger
- Maikel Garcia
- Isaac Paredes
- Christopher Morel
SHORTSTOP
- Oneil Cruz
- Corey Seager
- Carlos Correa
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Bryan Reynolds
- Yordan Alvarez
- Max Kepler
- Josh Lowe … Luckily for Alek Manoah, Brandon Lowe is still a day away from coming off his rehab. Unfortunately for Manoah, Josh Lowe is here and ready to step into the box.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Aaron Judge … It’s him vs Yordan, but Yordan is $800 cheaper
- Seiya Suzuki … I had him in Mt. Rushmore, but opted to go with J-Lo instead.
- Ian Happ
- Brent Rooker
OUTFIELD – Value
- Hunter Renfroe
- Estevan Florial
- Eddie Rosario
- Bryan Reynolds – OF – Pittsburgh Pirates – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Max Kepler – OF – Twins
- Jonathan Aranda – 2B – Rays
- Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros
- Bryce Harper – 1B – Phillies
- Jake Burger – 3B – Marlins
- Yasmani Grandal – C – Pirates
- Carlos Correa – SS – Twins
- BONUS …. Hunter Renfroe – OF – Royals
TOP BETS
Pirates/Cubs OVER 7
Orioles + Astros ML Parlay
Twins/Guardians OVER 7.5
Red Sox/Cardinals UNDER 8
Oakland/Kansas City NRFI