A little bummed at the configuration on DraftKings today as they have decided to omit the 2PM/3PM window of games from their Saturday afternoon large slate. So there is the 2PM “Early” slate, then 4PM “Afternoon” slate and then a 7PM “Main” Slate.
No promises on the 7PM article tonight, but I’ll try.
For the 3 “Early” games which are on the FanDuel Slate:
- OAK @ MIN: Under – Ober deals.
- STL @ CHC: Cubs + Over – Morel homers
- CLE @ TOR: Over – Naylor homers
WEATHER
- All games play
- TB at ATL: Temps approaching 100 degrees.
JUSTIN VERLANDER (DK: $9900) & JACK FLAHERTY (DK: 8900)
Here’s a little story about Jack and Justin. Two pitchers, doing the best they can. Flaherty vs Verlander in a game stack is your primary route today, both can deliver 5-6 IP, 5-6 strikeouts and should have limited damage on both sides. With a ceiling of who can go off on pitching, that’s very smart in my mind to take both and go ahead.
KEATON WINN (DK: $5800)
No reason to go middle of the road if pivoting off JV or Jack. So go down to Keaton Winn, who hasn’t been good, but the Angels are not putting up another 8 spot in the first 5 innings today.
Other Pitching Thoughts
- I really wanted to justify going with Ryan Pepiot, but 95+ degrees with a good amount of humidity in Atlanta would make that the most ballsy call of the day. Pepiot continues to build a solid resume as he is among league leaders in SwStr% and CSW% rates. Enter the Braves hitters, whom are gonna be feeling pretty optimistic today after their early outburst last night & could oblige to giving him another 7+ strikeout game — but signs of life from Austin Riley, a due homer from Murphy or Olson and this can turn south really fast. I’ll likely avoid Pepiot because of that.
NATS/MARLINS
MIA – Bryan De La Cruz, Josh Bell, Jake Burger
WSH – Lane Thomas, Joey Meneses
I will be picking on DJ Herz, making his third start today, with the Marlins RHH but also expecting Jazz to contribute as the game moves into the Nats bullpen. Nats are just as good of a play against T.Rodgers, but he did pitch well in his last start and might be good early in this one. Bottom line is that this game has cheap bats who should do well against bad pitching.
ORIOLES
Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins
Run, do not walk, to the window and place an over bet on this one. We won’t get duped again & I don’t see much success for Walker against Adley & Gunnar Henderson.
RAYS & BRAVES
Arozarena, Rosario || Riley, Murphy, Duvall
Too hot to ignore.
REDS
Elly De La Cruz, TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, Jeimer Candelario
Bryse Wilson is in the Alek Manoah/Lance Lynn/Chris Bassitt boat right now when it comes to the hooks in a lineup. He should see 4 of them in the first 5 Reds batters today, it could get ugly early, which is great for a stack. A guy like Candelario (who homered last night) batting in the middle is arguably the most important Red today at just $4100 and a relatively thin third base position on the slate.
CATCHER
- William Contreras … Obviously costly, but he delivers.
- Adley Rutschman
- Keibert Ruiz
- Sean Murphy
FIRST BASE
- Rhys Hoskins
- Bryce Harper
- Josh Bell
- Joey Meneses
SECOND BASE
THIRD BASE
- Jeimer Candelario
- Austin Riley
- Jake Burger
SHORTSTOP
- Gunnar Henderson
- Elly De La Cruz
- Willy Adames
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Lane Thomas
- Bryan De La Cruz
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Randy Arozarena
OUTFIELD – Tier II
- Austin Hays … Santander has always been the Saturday guy, but I am going back to the Hays well
- Brandon Nimmo
- Kyle Schwarber
- Adam Duvall
- Bryan De La Cruz – OF – Marlins – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Fernando Tatis Jr – OF – Padres
- Gunnar Henderson – SS – Orioles
- Jake Burger – 3B – Marlins
- Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Brewers
- Austin Hays – OF – Orioles
- Bo Naylor – C – Guardians
- BONUS … Lane Thomas – OF – Nationals
TOP BETS
Marlins/Nats OVER 8.5
Phillies/Orioles OVER 8.5
Padres/Mets OVER 8.5
Reds ML
Giants ML