Thirteen (13) game slate tonight with no Marlins/Phillies/Nationals/Rays. Expect a full run of content now up to the all-star break with the exception being next Monday, because MLB has decided to give almost the entire league Monday off as they play on Thursday next week for the 4th of July. Even worse, however, is that the fucking Toronto Blue Jays have an afternoon home game on the 4th of July. What an absolute MORONIC schedule mistake by MLB. I am once again letting everyone know that I am available for hire to build the MLB schedule.
Thank you.
WEATHER
Guardians at Royals – Rain throughout the day but a good chance it goes away for the game to play.
This is a pitching slate where you do not need to focus on strikeout metrics as much as you want to focus on a pitcher that is going to get through 6 innings without giving up a TON of damage. Even with a heavy amount of games, there’s not a ton of flame throwers or guys who can come out and dominate the slate. Plus we are into that time of season when it’s warm and the pitchers are slowing down in their ability to just come out and light things up in the first three innings. The ones who are winning are those who can go deep into the game.
LOGAN GILBERT (DK: $9900, FD: $10500)
When Gilbert gets into trouble it is generally with home runs biting him and the Twins certainly bring that risk tonight as they’re top 10 in HR in the league and on this slate have the fourth highest ISO. They also have the second highest K% and Gilbert is great at home and pitching better than just about anyone else in the American League over his last four starts, making my AL Cy Young prediction for him look very solid.
CHARLIE MORTON (DK: $9500, FD: $8800)
Uncle Chuck is sometimes good, sometimes shit. Literally every other start he flips back and forth it seems, which is understandable for someone his age (christ, he is younger than me?). But what we know about an old dog like Morton is that he’ll just throw those breaking pitches over and over and over again – tonight he gets a team who is not great with the breaking pitch and unless they have suddenly found Jobu on their journey below the Mason Dixon line I think we can take a risk here on Morton.
Second Tier Group
- I really do not have an automatic third pitcher to go with tonight so I am going to lump a few guys who I don’t love but recognize they can fit my profile tonight. Jameson Taillon, Bailey Ober, Logan Webb and Nick Pivetta. You’re gonna see me recommending hitters against many of these guys as well, but it’s not a multi-stack spot outside of maybe the Padres vs Pivetta.
- My wild card tonight? Dakota Hudson bounces back against the White Sox. But he won’t get above 10 DK fpts, so it’s not really worth it.
Other Pitching Notes
- Stroman (Chris Tucker) against Kikuchi (Jackie Chan) — All the Rush Hour excitement one can handle tonight in Toronto. We have Stroman returning to the SkyDome and Kikuchi of course facing the Yankees who he always pitches great against. But then Kikuchi has been pitching great against everyone ever since he started his new diet where by he is clearly mastered the art of being able to put undetectable sticky stuff on his hands or something. Dude has to be cheating and if he doesn’t give up a home run tonight to Judge then I would launch a big time investigation here.
- My model can put Kenta Maeda as high as it wants tonight. It can dress him up and make him look like a playmate. He can serve me a medium steak dinner with a side of potatoes, mushrooms and lobster and I still wont give him two thoughts tonight. Not gonna do it.
TEXAS RANGERS
Corey Seager, Josh Smith, Nate Lowe, Marcus Semien, Travis Jankowski
Love the Rangers and I have been kinda trying to buy into them now all week as I think they really get going. We got Adolis woken up, Nate Lowe is going to get his Camden homer or double off the oppo-wall in left and buy into Corey Seager once again.
BOSTON RED SOX
Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida
Boston is very well rested, they’ve had a full week at home with yesterday off after not traveling far before that. They’re kinda healthy and facing a SP who has been terrible with lefties. If Wilyer Abreu does bat 2nd between Duran and Tyler/Raffy then he’s our #1 pick from Boston. He is a dead fastball hitter and should see that if Duran is on first.
ALSO LIKE
- CUBS (Bellinger, Susuzki, Happ) … Suzuki loves hitting in Milwaukee
- BRAVES (Murphy, Laureano, Riley) … You need the cheap guys to really make Atlanta work.
- ROYALS (Massey, Perez, Melendez) … McKenzie’s arm is officially dead and Michael Massey is going to clear the bases in the first inning.
CATCHER
Dear Sean Murphy ….
- Sean Murphy
- Connor Wong
- Salvador Perez
FIRST BASE
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Nathaniel Lowe
- Vinnie Pasquantino
SECOND BASE
- Michael Massey
- Colt Keith
- Ketel Marte
- Jake Cronenworth
THIRD BASE
- Nolan Arenado … It might just be here. Yes, I think it is. Nolan getting hot up to the ASB sounds about right.
- Ryan McMahon … McMahon and Nolan Jones all weekend long. Well, today and tomorrow since they face Crochet on Sunday.
- Austin Riley
- Noelvi Marte … Solid value at 3600 even though probably batting low in the order again. Looks like he will come out on fire off the suspension
SHORTSTOP
- Corey Seager
- Dansby Swanson
- Jeremy Pena
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Wilyer Abreu
- Seiya Suzuki
- Riley Greene
- Nolan Jones
I know I said Judge has to homer, but $6700???? Holy cow DK.
OUTFIELD – Tier II
- Bryan Reynolds … Ride the streak in your props
- Steven Kwan
- Jackson Merrill
- Ian Happ
- Corey Seager – SS – Texas Rangers – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Ryan McMahon – 3B – Rockies
- Nolan Jones – OF – Rockies
- Wilyer Abreu – OF – Red Sox
- Sean Murphy – C – Braves
- Vlad Guerrero Jr – 1B – Blue Jays
- Colt Keith – 2B – Tigers
- Riley Greene – OF – Tigers
- BONUS ….. Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals
- BONUS 2 … Seiya Suzuki – OF – Cubs
TOP BETS
Cubs ML
Boston & Seattle ML parlay