Hello from the lake, it’s a great Sunday, it’s hot and the Rangers are not on the main or tilt slate today, so that’s a good thing.
The bad news is this. Tomorrow is depressing. Shit, Tuesday and Wednesday are somewhat depressing as well. I’m speaking from a MLB scheduling standpoint because of the 4th of July there’s almost no games tomorrow and no real day slates on Tue/Wed which is just blasphemy for the first week of July. This is significant of note because with almost everyone having tomorrow off you can maybe see more regulars in the Sunday lineup(s) today and some of the rain games will wait it out possibly.
WEATHER
A couple dicey spots today to monitor.
- Marlins at Phillies … It’s dicey mostly because we have a divisional game, but as noted, no games tomorrow for either team so they should be patient & play.
- Padres at Red Sox … Same deal here, just not as bad.
- Astros at Mets … Same situation
HUNTER GREENE (DK: $8500, FD: $9900) … You know, you tout a guy who is decent once all year and thats the game he dominates and now you suddenly feel you are the one who knows him better than the woman who brought him into this world. That’s me here wanting a piece of another dominant Hunter Greene start. So long as we don’t make a mistake today to Willson Contreras, we’re gonna have as much upside as Peralta, Suarez and others but less ownership and less salary cost. He is destroying lefties and should handle Arenado/Goldy.
FREDDY PERALTA (DK: $9800, FD: $9700) … First looked here and felt Peralta is a lock for 7 strikeouts — his prop is 7.5, he’s gonna go over it probably now that I think about it more. A homer or two is not that bad here since he isnt 11k and should have a high strikeout ceiling.
TAJ BRADLEY (DK: $8200, FD: $9500) … Normally we do not heavy pick on the Nats for strikeouts, but their rates over the last few days are higher and Tampa pitchers usually do well at home.
Other Pitching Notes (i.e. Guys I considered)
- Garrett Crochet — Freddy P is just more likely to get there, the price is close and he is fine too.
- Kyle Freeland — Not the type of guy who can suddenly string together back to back solid starts, but also the best of the cheap end Sunday Sleeper category type guys today.
- Matt Waldron — He became close to Tim Wakefield, so there is a little narrative going on here for that today.
ASTROS vs METS
Yordan Alvarez, Yainer Diaz, Jon Singleton — Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, DJ Stewart
Both offenses are really clicking right now and there is ZERO chance Luis Severino has the same outcome as he did last Sunday night in Wrigley. In fact, if Yordan Alvarez only hits two home runs today it could be viewed as a major disappointment.
ROYALS
Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr, Hunter Renfroe
First inning or bust for the Royals. If they aren’t scoring early they do not score unless it’s MJ Melendez hitting a 7th inning homer but he should sit today vs the LHP. With Logan Allen on the hill — a guy they have seen — I trust them to ambush him early.
OTHER SPOTS TO DABBLE IN
- REDS (Lefties)
- YANKEES … Losing Soto today hurts, Gausman is ripe for the picking.
- PADRES
CATCHER
- Yainer Diaz
- Freddy Fermin
- Martin Maldanado
FIRST BASE
- Vlad Guerrero Jr.
- Pete Alonso
- Jeimer Candelario
SECOND BASE
A lot of below average guys in good spots here today. None of which really stand out to me as the ones to own, but the Royals have 2 who are viable and one of them (Loftin) is cheap who could pair nicely in a lower order Royals stack
- Jose Altuve
- Nick Loftin
- Jonathan India
THIRD BASE
- Isaac Parades
- Jose Ramirez
- Manny Machado
- Maikel Garcia
SHORTSTOP
- Bobby Witt Jr
- Francisco Lindor
- Willy Adames
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Yordan Alvarez
- Aaron Judge
- Luis Robert Jr.
- DJ Stewart
OUTFIELD – Tier II
- Alex Verdugo
- Randy Arozarena
- Jackson Merrill
- Seiya Suzuki
- Sal Frelick
- Yordan Alvarez – OF – Houston Astros – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Isaac Parades – 3B – Rays
- Bobby Witt JR – SS – Royals
- Jeimer Candelario – 1B – REds
- Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros
- DJ Stewart – OF – Mets
- Martin Maldanado – C – White Sox
- Alex Verdugo – OF – Yankees
- BONUS …. Vlad Jr – 1B – Jays
TOP BETS
Astros/Mets over 9
Cubs/Brewers under 8
REDS + BREWERS + ROYALS + RAYS ML PARLAY