WEATHER
- Phillies at Braves: Storms that could come in late in the game, so nothing really to worry about here.
There is enough mid range and value hitting today that you can pay up for the comfortable/secure pitching, but we also have a group of SP2 candidates who could get on a large enough roll to deliver value. Let’s dive in.
THE HEADLINERS
TARIK SKUBAL (DK: $10,500, FD: $10,700)
Lets just go ahead and call Skubal the Grim Reaper today because after the horrific late loss by Cincinnati on Saturday and the impending sweep at the hands of the Tigers today I gotta think someone with some testicles in the Reds front office is going to go ahead and finally pull the plug on David Bell after it feels like he has been there forever without any significant results.
The Reds went into Yankee Stadium and somehow swept the Yankees making everyone think they were about to get hot. Sorry, they are not. Elly flips to his bad side in the RvL match-up, Tyler Stephenson hasn’t hit since May and Jeimer Candelario burned out before the legend ever did. They suck. Ignore Skubal’s recent mediocrity no the road.
NATE EOVALDI (DK: $9000, FD: $9700)
We know that when Nate is on and feeling good he is viable to have a very high strikeout upside. The CSW% has been average the last few starts but his command of the zone is really good of late and when I’ve seen this from Eovaldi in the past he generally continues it for a while. He’s healthy, the Rays swing a ton and he should throw 7+ IP again today.
My Sunday Sleeper
Spencer Arrighetti … If this moron comes out and throws fastballs/cutters to the Twins then just ship him back to Single-A ball. He has a great curveball and should utilize it effectively on the Twins lefties to tame a hot offense. This is my Gut call of the day.
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS
- Zack Littell: This is the best cheaper SP2/safe route. Weather won’t be an impact with the roof closed, he is sub 7k & has just two guys that are concerns (Adolis/Seager). He can be good. He shouldn’t be negative.
- Kyle Gibson: The Cardinals desperately need some length out of a starter. They had three straight extra inning games and then Lance Lynn got lit up obviously yesterday. This also falls into my “go opposite after a blowout” theory in Sports as well. So there’s good positives there, but it’s gonna be 95 degrees in Nats Park and that lineup is having their way with Cardinals pitching right now. He’s high risk.
- Sean Manaea is due to struggle. Terrible analysis I know. I get it, “due” and analytics aren’t really a good combination. Just my personal thought on him. He’s at best a 12 DK FPTS outing.
- The Marlins have brought Edward Cabera back off the IL. He made a rehab start but isn’t likely to throw more than 80-85 pitches today at best. Sure, it’s the White Sox, on a Sunday South Beach hangover game after the 4th of July weekend. I get it. But he’s not sub 7k on DK and I’ve never really felt he was that good to begin with.
TOP TEAMS / GAMES
GUARDIANS: Jose Ramirez, Angel Martinez, Bo Naylor
Along with that ‘due’ comment above on Manaea, Jose Ramirez has looked unusually off at the plate of late but I think it’s just him not being aggressive enough early in the count. He gets a young Hayden Birdsong that likely could make a big time mistake and you’ll have that instant notification that Jose Ramirez homers on a fly ball to right field, Steven Kwan scores, Angel Martinez scores and the Guardians take a 3-1 lead on the Giants.
ANGELS: Nolan Schanuel, Brandon Drury, Logan O’Hoppe, Jo Adell
Two games that went under, which definitely is not what I had expected. Every other bullpen around MLB seems to have hit a wall, but these two are managing to survive — that ends today. This is a good go all in spot on Wrigley if you wanna go here at very low ownership.
SECOND TIER TEAMS
METS: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso
CARDINALS: Nolan Arenado, Dylan Carlson, Masyn Wynn, Paul Goldschmidt
CATCHER
- Bo Naylor
- Yainer Diaz
- Francisco Alvarez
FIRST BASE
- Nolan Schanuel
- Matt Olson … Kinda a nice spot to buy the dip on Matt Olson against a rookie coming off a good debut.
- LaMonte Wade
- Andrew Vaughn
SECOND BASE
- Whit Merrifield
- Colt Keith
- Brandon Drury
THIRD BASE
I mentioned there are a good amount of mid-range/value bats on this slate, but the one to pay up for today is Jose Ramirez.
- Jose Ramirez
- Nolan Arenado … Quietly hitting better and doing enough to use him consistently
- Alex Bregman
SHORTSTOP
- Corey Seager
- Francisco Lindor
- Zack McKinstry
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
OF is loaded today.
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Brandon Nimmo
- Jo Adell
- Jorge Soler
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Angel Martinez
- Dylan Carlson
- Jesus Sanchez
- Yordan Alvarez
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Jose Ramirez – 3B – Cleveland Guardians – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Jazz Chisholm Jr – OF – Marlins
- Whit Merrifield – 2B – Phillies
- Jorge Soler – OF – Giants
- Jo Adell – OF – Angels
- Bo Naylor – C – Guardians
- Nolan Schanuel – 1B – Angels
- Corey Seager – SS – Rangers
- BONUS … Luis Robert JR – OF – White Sox
Given how bad the bullpens are around the league and all the warm temps everywhere I have a VERY hard time taking any unders these days unless it’s an ice cold offense. Which really I don’t see a ton of that today either.
TOP BETS
Cardinals/Nationals OVER 9
Giants/Guardians OVER 9
ML PARLAY: Cleveland + Texas + Detroit