A new set of Home Run Derby rules have been announced and while the old bracket format was cool for betting head to heads, this new format feels like it is more fair and balanced to pick the overall winner. Here are the highlights to the rule changes.
- The Knockout/Bracket style is eliminated in the round of 8 contestants, and won’t begin until they are down to the ‘Semi-Finals’. This means that if you have a massive sleeper who goes off early they aren’t gonna get screwed by a bad match-up.
- There is a limit on the number of pitches. In the first two rounds it is limited to 40 pitches total (or 3 minutes) and in the finals it is 27 pitches (or 2 minutes). I think this does hurt someone like Pete Alonso who wouldn’t tire like other guys and volume of pitches helped him out.
- Bonus pitches are not on a timer
So the rules aren’t that drastic here, but for betting purposes we have to approach it slightly differently since everyone is competing as a field in the first round.
Overall Winner Odds and Analysis
- Pete Alonso (+320) … The Polar Bear is the obvious favorite given his dominance of this contest and getting him at +320 odds is pretty nice here. He isn’t my pick to win it, but you can definitely have two picks to win it and still make money with him on these odds.
- Marcell Ozuna (+425) … The new format does not play well for the older contestants IMO. Ozuna at 33 is a fade.
- Bobby Witt Jr (+425) … My pick, and not just a “homer” pick as a Royals fan. Bobby Witt is the true home town kid here and he has the power to make the most of his pitch count while not getting tired.
- Gunnar Henderson (+475) … Somehow, someway, we need Henderson vs Witt in the Semi-Finals. It would be great for baseball to see the two young AL MVP candidates face off here in the derby
- Adolis Garcia (+550) … Home team representative has not had a great first half of the season, but he would be a good pick to advance in.
- Teoscar Hernandez (+1000) … Ditto Teoscar with Ozuna, but I do think the first round is coming down to him, Garcia & J-Ram for the 4th spot
- Jose Ramirez (+1300) … The way Ramirez was swinging before the break it would probably shock many to see him get hot and take over this thing. I like him to do well early but not have a chance to win it all.
- Alec Bohm (+1700) … The odds are perfect for Bohm, he shouldn’t have a chance to win this thing as a true line drive/gap hitter.
Picks to Advance To Semi-Finals
#1. Bobby Witt Jr.
#2. Pete Alonso
#3. Adolis Garcia
#4. Gunnar Henderson
Finals Pick
Bobby Witt Jr beats Pete Alonso (+1300)
Official Betting Card
- Bobby Witt JR (+450)
- Bobby Witt Round 1 – Over 21.5
- Marcell Ozuna Round 1 – Under 23.5
- League with Most Total Derby HRs: American League (-120)
Other Bets I Like
- Over 0.5 Total Swing-Offs (+320)
- Most HRs in Round 1 – Bobby Witt Jr (+450)