We have a three game “Early” Turbo slate today and then this MAIN 8 game article followed up with a smaller 5 game night slate.
WEATHER
There aren’t any games at big risk of PPD today
If you are playing DFS by just staring your bald head at a spreadsheet on your computer screen, or solely believe in the power of projections and analytics, then sure, go ahead and use Luis Gil against a cold Orioles lineup or even ride Grayson Rodriguez on the other side in that game. If you do not live under a rock and have touched grass in the last 24 hours then you know those are two of the most dangerous plays on the board today after how yesterday’s game ended.
Unfortunately things turn very sideways on the rest of the slate, but it’s not that there aren’t diamonds in the rough to pluck out. We have rookie Tyler Phillips getting a start for the Phillies after he pitched 4 solid innings in relief on Sunday. He’s a south Jersey native and looked kinda nice against Atlanta but you aren’t getting much of a DK discount here and no chance I trust him to go more than 4 again, nor will it be as clean. Long term though, they might have something here.
GAVIN WILLIAMS (DK: $7800, FD: $6700)
Last night was a Rays Friday & Under. Today is a Guardians Saturday & Under. Tomorrow is probably the over in this series. That’s just how it works in the universe sometimes (okay, I cheated and looked and saw Ben Lively going tomorrow). Everyone loved Gavin Williams coming into 2024, and for good reason. He’s now making his third start of the year after an injury and looked like himself in the last outing against a similarly mediocre/bad/free swinging Tigers team. If it was his first start, we would run away, but in the third outing he has to trust his secondary stuff more today and that’s where he should be able to roll through the Rays.
NATE EOVALDI (DK: $9600, FD: $9800)
DFS rules on DraftKings require that we use two pitchers, so I had to go with someone that I can honestly trust. Outside of Yordan Alvarez I don’t think Eovaldi will be too scared today and maybe, just maybe, they’ll let him pitch over 90 pitches?
ZACK LITTELL (DK: $8000, FD: $8600)
Going through the full breakdown on the hitting I found myself not liking anything from Cleveland’s offense. Littell has low K% upside against the Guardians today, but could be an ok SP2 with Gavin Williams to ride another under spot.
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS
- Very tempted on Mitch Spence here. The Phillies are a heavy veteran team who just swept the Dodgers and are now ready to go into the all-star break looking way paste the Athletics. They usually rake at home on Saturday afternoons as the ball carries well there, so that’s why no on Spence, but I also won’t be shocked if they dont put up more than 3 ER on him.
- Christian Scott – He’s gonna get you a 12. You want a 12? Here’s your 12.
TOP TEAMS
I am most definitely back on two games I was on last night. The Marlins vs the Reds and Royals vs Red Sox. Of those, Boston could be the one with the best stack scenario while the others are full of one offs.
RED SOX: Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, Tyler O’Neill, Masataka Yoshida
Gotta like the lefties for Boston against Lugo, who has been really good for the Royals but off-speed vs Boston lefties is not going to get it done, so he’ll have to be smart and try to get Duran or Devers to chase a breaking ball in the dirt, which won’t bode well and should setup the rest of the lineup for a big RBI game. I really like Boston today.
MARLINS: Jazz, De La Cruz, Burger, Edwards
They’re free. They’re in Cincy. They’re the perfect core team all weekend long at these prices.
NATIONALS: Thomas, Ramirez, Yepez
What a weird game here. The Nationals are rolling the clearly better SP right now and are a dog? The Nationals hit lefties well too, so how is Dallas Keuchel going to get through 3 innings here today without destruction and death imposed upon him? I’ll back Milwaukee to win this one late, but the Nationals stack is in play
SECOND TIER TEAMS
ORIOLES: Rutschman, Santander, O’Hearn
Boom or Bust.
ATHLETICS: Bleday, Andujar, Langeliers
JJ Bleday upon hearing the whole narrative surrounding a local Philly guy starting for the Phillies is gonna look at Tyler Philllips and be like … hey
CATCHER
- Shea Langeliers
- Keibert Ruiz
- Adley Rutschman
- Jonah Heim
FIRST BASE
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Rhys Hoskins
- Josh Bell
SECOND BASE
Absolute dog shit pile of trash right here folks. David Hamilton is $4900? What? I guess he works in a Boston stack, but good lord, it’s Jonathan India at $4400 or bust today at second base.
- Jonathan India
- Ildemaro Vargas
- Adam Frazier
THIRD BASE
- Jake Burger
- Rafael Devers
- Ryan McMahon
SHORTSTOP
- Corey Seager
- Willy Adames
- Xavier Edwards … The price just remains too good in a small park and a favorable spot in the lineup most nights.
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- JJ Bleday
- Anthony Santander
- Jarren Duran
- Bryan De La Cruz
OUTFIELD – Tier II
- Yordan Alvarez
- Lane Thomas
- Tyler O’Neill
- MJ Melendez … Now has 8 HR vs Boston in 15 games. Just wild. I think a Melendez for Soto deal should be done….
- JJ Bleday – OF – Oakland Athletics – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Jake Burger – 3B – Marlins
- Corey Seager – SS – Rangers
- Lane Thomas – OF – Nationals
- Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Brewers
- Anthony Santander – OF – Orioles
- Keibert Ruiz – C – Nationals
- Gleyber Torres – 2B – Yankees
- BONUS …………… Bryan De La Cruz – OF – Marlins
A great slate to combine two teams together for a 4-3 type stack if you are into that sort of sorcery. The Marlins remain at the top of my list given their prices and the power upside they get in the small park.
TOP BETS
- Milwaukee ML + Boston ML Parlay
- Marlins/Reds OVER 9
- Rangers/Astros under 8.5
- Marlins ML