Thankfully both DraftKings and FanDuel built a full all day 3 game slate for this horrific MLB schedule. The games are actually pretty good as well and it’s nice to have a slate for once where you can watch each individual game (or just glance and pay attention while doing other things) and maybe use late swap as you would like.
Let’s run through each game independently first before going through the full picks.
ASTROS at BLUE JAYS
It’s Hunter Brown, who is pitching great, up against Yariel Rodriguez, who is a modified opener for Toronto. I say modified, because you’re not gonna get a ton of length out of him, but 3 to 4 IP is almost certain because they gotta get something from him. If you wanna back Toronto on Canada Day, go right ahead, I say we pound their asses since they are getting a game on July 4th as well. I like Houston a lot and I don’t see a way to pass up on Brown.
NY METS at WASHINGTON
James Wood (LHH) will make his debut today and he has power, but as a prospect we’ll be cautious here and I think he’ll bat low in the order. He’s also not free on DraftKings at $3500, so I don’t see a reason to rush there. However, I do like the Nats against David Peterson in what I expect could sneak in as a high scoring game. Peterson and Gore both have SP game stack upside, so in a second lineup do that if I am off here, but there’s gonna be more hitting ownership on the third game and the Nats are crushing lefties while the Mets key batters have good history w/ Gore too.
MILWAUKEE vs COLORADO
Short slate and a game in Coors? Fun. The obvious leverage/pivot/game theory game here is going with Austin Gomber and there’s data to back it up with Milwaukee having a near 40% strikeout projection with the anticipated lineup. Obviously, in Coors, it can be harder to trust such metrics, but I say you take the Gamble on the Gomber, Austin play as one of your two SP’s.
WEATHER
No issues
Not a ton to like and given just three games you’re more into the leverage/game theory mindset than anything else.
- HUNTER BROWN … Hottest pitcher going on this slate and the other options do not deter us from using him.
- AUSTIN GOMBER … This is the best leverage/contrarian spot. Milwaukee is likely to roll out some RHH who aren’t hitting LHP very well and this could be a spot Gomber has one of his once every 4 starts good games.
Second Lineup SP Game Stack:
- Gore & Peterson
Just not roster-able
- Rodriguez & Wilson – Yeah, Wilson can be good at times. Not a back to back good games guy and he’s coming off a gem.
- NATIONALS (Thomas, Abrams, Senzel) … Lane Thomas is the anchor and there’s lots of cheap bats behind him. Peterson faced the Nats back in early June and had just two strikeouts. This should continue here today as the Nats vs LHP are not striking out as much as they are vs RHP. Everyone being free after Abrams/Thomas makes this a top pt/$ stack.
- ASTROS (Alvarez, Altuve, Meyers) … I am not gonna miss the Yordan Alvarez heater. Just not gonna do it. Jake Meyers hitting second is among top gotta play him guys today too.
- METS (Martinez, Lindor, Alonso) … Hate to pick on my guy Gore, but the Mets hit him well.
CATCHER
- Francisco Alvarez
- Keibert Ruiz
FIRST BASE
- Pete Alonso
- Michael Toglia
SECOND BASE
- Jose Altuve
- Jose Iglesias
THIRD BASE
- Nick Senzel
- Ryan McMahon
SHORTSTOP
- CJ Abrams
- Francisco Lindor
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Lane Thomas
- J.D. Martinez – OF is deep so he’s not terrible at 1B too
- Yordan Alvarez
- Jake Meyers
- JD Martinez – 1B/OF – NY Mets – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Ryan McMahon – 3B – Rockies
- Lane Thomas – OF – Nationals
- Jake Meyers – OF – Astros
TOP BETS
- Mets/Nationals over 8
- Astros ML / First 5
- Rockies ML