WEATHER
DET at MIN: Mother Nature has seen that the Tigers are letting Kenta Maeda pitch against his former team on the 4th of July and said, no, I cannot allow this level of destruction to occur. This game has high PPD chances today.
All other games play
MAX SCHERZER (DK: $8800, FD: $9200)
The historical narrative on Scherzer is that he’ll give up 2 HR to lefties each time out while striking out 35% of the batters. That’s Max of about 4-5 years ago and this new Max coming off the IL seems to be pitching with his brain like all great veteran pitchers do. Book makers are smart here, as they have his SO prop only set to 4.5, but you can expect even without hitting a high strikeout volume Max will pitch well and navigate his 80-85 pitches effectively giving Texas 6 IP and limited damage against.
NICK PIVETTA (DK: $8600, FD: $8700)
Pivetta has been OFF lately and he is just falling behind way too much and has no real control. I’m willing to take a gamble here because the Marlins have been swinging early and could help him get ahead and gain comfort. When Pivetta gets to 0-1, he almost has a 50% strikeout rate in the AB, but when he doesn’t it generally leads to him giving up hits.
CHRIS BASSITT (DK: $8000, FD: $9400)
Backing Canada’s team on the 4th of July when they should not have a home game just feels gross. Knowing a white hot Yordan Alvarez is not going to get out against Chris Bassitt is equally gross. But it’s not that warm up in Toronto (roof probably open) & the Astros just do not have the lefties to make this an uncomfortable game for Bassitt. He can gives us 6, and he HAS to give Toronto’s depleted bullpen that and maybe more.
Other Pitching Thoughts
- I am strongly considering Stroman. He seems like the type to stop the Yankees losing streak with a big performance like 7 innings, 3 hits, 1 ER, 5 strikeouts. But my mind cannot get past some struggles or limitations against the Reds who do not strike out a ton and have two big hitters that look great here (Elly & Candelario).
GUARDIANS
Jose Ramirez, Jhonkensy Noel, Josh Naylor
Hot, Humid and lots of easy value to fit around the 3-headed trio of Kwan, Ramirez and Naylor down at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario. They’ll flip it over to a RHP out of the pen most likely too, so the full lineup can do damage once Shuster is out in the 2nd or 3rd.
RED SOX
Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, Davild Hamilton, Reese McGuire
No south beach theory on a Holiday today. Kyle Tyler walks, bad marlins defense and lots of steals for Boston today
WRIGLEY FIELD
Trea Turner, Brandon Marsh, Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner, Patrick Wisdom
The two pitchers here would have insane projections if you only took the recency for each of them, but I have a sneaky feeling we see the ball carry very well in Wrigley Field today and Jameson Taillon’s streak of pitching well is coming to an end. The flip side is somehow having the guts to trust the Cubs offense but Suzuki, Morel and Wisdom are all players I would take a gamble on today
NOTE: Wisdom hitting 2nd is nice.
CATCHER
- Reese McGuire
- David Fry
- Tomas Nido
FIRST BASE
On FanDuel you can use America’s First Baseman Paul Goldschmidt. On DraftKings, it’s an ugly slate, but you have everyone’s Yankee darling Ben Rice leading off for $2800. Fine, I’ll ride it, but this guy is not a long term “star”. Remember Trey Mancini? Yes, he was good for a few years. Where is he now.
- Ben Rice
- Josh Naylor
- Jeimer Candelario
SECOND BASE
- Nico Hoerner
- David Hamilton
- Bryson Stott
THIRD BASE
Very Very deep position. Some easy spots it feels like though.
- Jose Ramirez
- Patrick Wisdom
- Rafael Devers
SHORTSTOP
- Trea Turner
- Bo Bichette
- Elly De La Cruz
- Dansby Swanson – Value if you go full Cubs. Might as well start drinking now though.
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Jarren Duran
- Seiya Suzuki
- Brandon Marsh
- Adolis Garcia
OUTFIELD – Stud HR Club
- Yordan Alvarez
- Aaron Judge
OUTFIELD – The rare time I tout Andrew Benintendi
- Andrew Benintendi
- Patrick Wisdom – 3B – Cubs – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros
- Adolis Garcia – OF – Rangers
- Brandon Marsh – OF – Phillies
- Reese McGuire – C – Red Sox
- Ben Rice – 1B – Yankees
- Trea Turner – SS – Phillies
- David Hamilton – 2B – Red Sox
- BONUS … Jose Ramirez – 3B – Guardians
TOP BETS
- Reds/Yankees under 9
- White Sox/Guardians over 8.5
- Phillies/Cubs over 7.5
- Cubs ML
- Rangers ML