A little quick introduction on this slate. We are possibly entering into a two to three week stretch where the data you see is not the data you are going to get. Case in point is that we have a number of teams today who have yet to allow a passing touchdown defensively on the season and so we look at this and say, wow, blah blah blah has allowed x% touchdowns or is a funnel defense and really it’s not true. It’s skewed because of inconsistent schedules early in the season and we haven’t really settled in enough to let the data settle. Just something to keep in mind as these teams really start to identify who they are. We wanna keep a focus on talent and opportunity.
GAMES I AM MOST INTERESTED IN
Maryland at Indiana (12PM EST, Over/Under: 52, Indiana -7)
- Weather Projection: Rain yes, wind is on the edge. It’s right in that 12-13 MPH window. Low enough that I think it’s not going to deter both teams from doing what they want to do (pass).
- Tons of movement on this game after it opened and the Hoosiers are rolling — which really makes this a prime spot for a backdoor cover by Maryland. If you want to read into why it moved the weather could be a reason as Maryland’s entire offense runs through Tai Felton right now.
- For a DFS perspective, I love the Indiana passing connection of Rourke-Sarratt with Felton running it back.
- If you are scared off by the weather, then fine. Go ahead and be that guy.
TCU at Kansas (3:30 PM EST, Over/Under: 59, Kansas -2)
- Definitely no weather issues here. Mid 80’s, mid afternoon start time and desperate teams.
- Kansas: Jalon Daniels, Devin Neal, Quentin Skinner
- TCU: Josh Hoover, Savion Williams
Oklahoma State at Kansas State (12PM EST, Over/Under: 57.5, KSU -5)
- OKST: Ollie Gordon
- KSU: Avery Johnson
GAMES I AM FADING
- Colorado at UCF
KURTIS ROURKE – Indiana – $7900 … Maryland’s pass defense is the second worst on the slate through the young 2024 season and this game should have a decent flow to it allowing for the former MAC star to possibly get an extra possession or two. He’s had a high comp 75% completion rate thus far as a Hoosier against WIU, UCLA and Charlotte and no doubt will be peppering former JMU Duke and now Hoosier Elijah Sarratt.
AVERY JOHNSON – Kansas State – $8000 … Love this game just as much as that Maryland/Indiana one and love two studs specifically in it. Avery Johnson is the clear one for Kansas State — he is their ground game and I would not read much into the 0 TD 2 INT game vs BYU. He and the Wildcats will play better this week and this game has heavy late 4th quarter shootout potential in it.
ALSO LIKE
- ARCH MANNING (Texas) … Price kept him down from being in the top 2.
- TAYLEN GREEN (Arkansas)
OLLIE GORDON – OK ST – $9200 … Finally a low owned Ollie Gordon in a game where the script will be good for him to touch the ball a ton & he’s prime to get ridden all game long after being shutout by Utah. Gordon is going to be far lower owned than RJ Harvey — Harvey is a fine play sure, but the Kansas State rush defense was 2x worse in Conference versus Non-Conference a year ago, and I would bank on that correction continuing to build up this season with a 100+ yard game from Gordon and 2 scores.
DEVIN NEAL – Kansas – $6000 … Things have not been great for the Jayhawks thus far but I wouldn’t be shocked to see them really start to turn it on soon. Neal fits the home RB as a slight favorite who is a mid range price. He’s expected to be one of the most popular owned RB’s today and at his price is a no brainer.
ALSO LIKE
- HENRY PARRISH – Ole Miss – $6800
- JEREMIYAH LOVE – Notre Dame – $6000
SAVION WILLIAMS – TCU – $5800 … This is arguably the safest game on the slate to target for some floor production & so far Williams is looking like he is going to consistently be as much of a threat in the passing game as Jack Bech.
ELIJAH SARRATT – Indiana – $5500 … This one will be easier to smash in than Felton because of the price and he has the better/more reliable Quarterback as well.
QUENTIN SKINNER – Kansas ($4100) … Deeper in the depth chart WR will do better at home and last week it was the Luke Grimm road show. This week it’s Skinner for a jump ball touchdown
TAI FELTON – Maryland – $7700 … Felton’s targets are not all deep shots, so he can still accumulate a 8-85 type stat line even if weather limits things somewhat due to play calling.
KEY ONE OFFS
- DANE KEY – Kentucky ($4600)
- DANIEL JACKSON – Minnesota ($5000)
- JAYCE BROWN – Kansas State ($4800)
- DARIUS LASSITER – BYU ($3700)
POSITION DEPTH RANKED (For S-FLEX/FLEX Purposes)
RB, QB, WR
DRAFTKINGS CORE
Ollie Gordon II
Devin Neal
Elijah Sarratt
BETS
- BAMA ML
- Minnesota +10
- Maryland +7.5 (Get the hook)
- Kansas -2
- Baylor ML
- Notre Dame -7