We are into the first ever expanded CFB Playoff with all the hype and all the bold predictions on what we are going to see. As I write this, we have yet to kick off the Friday night opener game so I won’t be swayed by how that game plays out with the three Saturday games. At the end of the day, we’re still dealing with a true road team and a true home team in each of these games. The difference here is that it’s obviously win or go home and so I think there’s nothing wrong with the three road dogs to come out and maybe play loose and a little wild/crazy today. The problem with that theory is that two of them (Clemson, Tennessee) probably think they definitely belong here and may not view themselves as underdogs. The good news is that Tennessee IMO has the guts to go wild on the Buckeyes if they need too.
At the end of the day, I don’t see road ML upsets as being that justified for betting purposes, although taking the points most definitely is on my radar. Here is how I like the games for DFS, ranked in order…
- Clemson vs Texas (OU: 46.5)
- Tennessee vs Ohio State (OU: 52)
- SMU vs Penn State (OU: 54)
Hopefully that winds up being contrarian because I am flipping the totals obviously, but is a 54 vs 46.5 total really that massive of a gap? The answer is … No.
- Quinn Ewers (Texas – $8200) … My guy on this 3-gamer. The wagon is firmly hitched for me with Ewers as I do not see the Sheriffs Backup allowing Arch Manning to get too much of a sniff of a chance to take over here in the first round. Clemson’s been a fraud defense many teams this season, but they’ve also got a sneaky QB in Cade Klubnik who has made big plays when they need him too, and that correlation to me favors this game to be close and with big plays. The other favorable thing here is that if Arch Manning does come in for a play or two, he’s gonna be stealing the rushing touchdown IMO from a chalky Quintrevion Wisner more than he is taking away the big play threat from Ewers in the passing game. You have to hitch into either loading up on one game or trying to spread it out as boring as you can just to miss cashing. I’ll ride the mid-afternoon game as the top game of the day down in Austin.
- Dylan Sampson – Tennessee – $8200 … Who is the best overall player on the slate? I can make a case for Sampson, who should avg over 5 YPC and should touch it 18+ times. The floor is as good as you will find and the Vols should be smart with how to win this game vs Ohio State — who can air it out possibly and that’s really not where Tennessee should try to go on the road here. Run the ball and defense.
- Kaytron Allen – Penn State – $5000 … If you gave me a Singleton or Allen anytime TD bet I would hammer it. Not sure which one, so hopefully its both.
- Brashard Smith – SMU – $7700
ALSO LIKE:
Quinshon Judkins (Ohio State): This could be a sleeper spot, Judkins might have a little resurgence facing an SEC opponent and is the wild card for Ohio State today. His volume is fine, just hasn’t found the end zone consistently
TOP THREE
- Antonio Williams – Clemson – $6100 … And my third CORE play of the week is on the other side of the QB. Antonio Williams by far is the most reliable WR going today, but I won’t try to sell you on him having an easy match-up. That said, nobody really does today despite volume and talent taking over, both of which are in his favor.
- Tyler Warren – Penn State – $7200 … If Penn State does not get Warren the ball early and often then they do not deserve to play Football ever again.
- Jeremiah Smith – Ohio State – $6200 … Have fun with the OSU roulette wheel on WR’s, but it’s likely gotta correlate for big play ability.
FAVORITE TEXAS WEAPON
- DeAndre Moore – Texas – $4200 … Hardest spot to peg today is the Texas WR situation considering how much I think they’ll be able to move the ball on Clemson. Bond would have been my top spot but it sounds really unlikely he will suit up. With him out Moore should have another good game like he did in the SEC Championship.
POSITION DEPTH RANKED (For S-FLEX/FLEX Purposes)
WR
RB
QB
DRAFTKINGS CORE
Quinn Ewers
Dylan Sampson
Antonio Williams
DeAndre Moore
CHALK LINEUP
- QB: Drew Allar
- RB: Brashard Smith
- RB: Nicholas Singleton
- WR: Tyler Warren
- WR: Bryant Wesco
- WR: Gunnar Helm
- FLEX: Quintrevion Wisner
- S-FLEX: Jeremiah Smith
TOP BETS
Clemson +12
Tennessee +7.5
Penn State -8.5
UNDERDOG SLEEPERS
No, not the website/app Underdog. These are the guys for each of the three dogs who would most have to outperform expectations for their team(s) to pull off the upset.
SMU – Kevin Jennings (QB)
Clemson – Antonio Williams (WR)
Tennessee – Dylan Sampson (RB)