Welcome to another MLB DFS season and while I am not one of those fools who would say “it feels just like yesterday we watched the World Series”, I will say that Spring Training really flew by this year.
There’s a sense of optimism that I have for Baseball and DFS this year that I haven’t had since before the COVID season. Which means if history repeats itself we’ll have some jackass catcher hitting two home runs in the final game of the night to cost me big, followed by the Nationals PPD a game with no rain to cost me big and then the best pitcher on the slate at 5% ownership leaving for cramps … yes, to cost me big. Or, if you’re a glass half full history repeating itself kinda guy then we’ll have another pandemic or strike (*cough*, a lockout is already looming, *cough*) and we’ll have to dust off the ole KBO dashboard once again with all the Kims, Jangs and Wongs your heart can desire.
We are going to possibly have the true return of a heavy stable of dominant ‘Ace’ pitchers on display this season. Guys like Alcantara, Strider, McLanahan and hopefully deGrom returning to the dominance every few days is going to really increase the high end SP1 decisions each night. There’s always injuries (see Gerrit Cole) that will diminish the pool here, but as I noted last year at some point we’re into a phase now on ace pitchers where they’re back up to that strength level after missing the 2020 season and we can hopefully get some healthy aces for a good portion of the season.
SLATE SETUP
No synchronicity. Welp, it wont be a perfect season for FanDuel and DraftKings, although credit to FD for getting what the slate should have been correct with the BAL/TOR and MIL/NYY games on the slate.
WEATHER
Looks pretty good honestly for an Opening Day as all games should play and nothing is freezing cold or any snow like we had a couple years ago.
- Angels at Royals: Chance of pop up storms.
PAUL SKENES – (DK: $10,000, FD: $11,000)
I am not going to apologize here. A generational ace pitcher going against one of the worst offenses we have seen in a long time. Sure, “its wrong” can dance all you want on your left shoulder but that wont stop me from being like 100% other humans with a brain out there today and going with Skenes vs the Marlins as our top play. Really bold shit here folks.
MACKENZIE GORE – (DK: $6600, FD: $7400)
Backing dogs in April (or March) along with backing the teams you believe in more than everyone else. This leads us to a spot where I can once again back someone that really came into his own finally last year. Gore somewhat quietly took a big step by reducing the HR from 27 to 15 despite throwing 90 more innings and more importantly lowered his BB/9. The lefty knows the Phillies and should have good confidence after a strong finish to give the Nats over 5 innings today. Turner and Bohm are concerns but he’s gonna breeze through the bottom of the lineup after that.
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS …
- Yusei Kikuchi (DK: $6900, FD: $8400) … This is the logical pick as your SP2 today and probably a chalky one. But, I am not going to let Kikuchi ruin my Opening Day. I didn’t wait six fucking months to throw down some money on him right away, what are you crazy?
- Sean Burke (DK: $6300, FD: $7400) … I know, you are probably like shit I shoulda paid attention to the White Sox more last September. No, you shouldn’t have. He faced nobody in his four ML starts last year and I see no reason to bite hard on this today — I don’t hate the pick, but … blah.
- Sandy Alcantara … The Pirates are ALMOST as bad as the Marlins, but not quite bad enough to double stack the pitching here. While Sandy did make 5 spring starts, he totaled just 12 IP and I would expect some limitations today.
CINCINNATI REDS
CINCINNATI REDSI love everything about the Reds. Have them to win the division and believe that they are going to be a common stack for us, especially at home in their hitting friendly park. Tito Francona walking into this clubhouse is an instant 30% boost on everything he touches and the two big items are going to be the bullpen and the lineup consistency. A better OBP% approach and timely hitting is going to be vastly improved for what is a sneaky deep lineup vs RHP.
NEW YORK METS
Nice park shift and someone I consider of the soft tossing lefty mold — the profile who sucks early in the year. Two big reasons to back the Mets here with a lineup full of xBH and SLG upside. If this stack pays off though it’s not just Lindor, Alonso, Soto that do it — it’s Vientos, Marte and oh, I dunno, Jose Siri????? who get you there.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Death. Taxes. Touting the Royals. Alright, so lets just get this one out the way now alright? We use the Royals on opening day and then we pass on them for about a month. Every year we come into the season thinking this team is going to hit after playing ball in Surprise, AZ and then they gotta play in AL Central April weather and it fucking sucks. Well, day one they are in good conditions in Kauffman with a ton of energy and a favorable SP matchup. Gimme some Royals here.
OTHER GAME THOUGHTS
- Red Sox vs Rangers: Another dome game here where hitting conditions should be looked at favorably. Boston’s a reasonably priced stack and has power 1-5. Texas is going to Ambush Crochet early, but likely falls off after that. Adolis Garcia is in shape and healthy, I can see him and Jung having big hits first time through.
CATCHER
- Adley Rutschman (FD)
- Salvador Perez
- Patrick Bailey
- Luis Torrens
FIRST BASE
- Matt Olson
- Bryce Harper
- Triston Casas
SECOND BASE
- Matt McLain
- Alex Bregman
- Michael Massey
THIRD BASE
- Mark Vientos – Last year whoever was hitting behind Soto and Judge for the Yankees would have a good game if Soto and Judge did not. This year I see that being Vientos behind Lindor, Soto and Alonso. If you can get through those big three, then Vientos is going to make you pay for a mistake.
- Gavin Lux
- Alec Bohm
- Cam Smith – Would much rather have Vientos, but $2400 here is a good buy low.
SHORTSTOP
Tons of depth here as we would expect, so not a bad idea to maybe go wherever you want but these three are going to be mainstays and no reason to not like them out of the gate.
- Willy Adames – Shit on Adames going to a tougher park all you want too. You have blinders on as he’s gonna rake when at home hitting those gaps. But he’s not at home today, he’s just in the smallest park in the league against a gas throwing meatball machine.
- Elly De La Cruz
- Bobby Witt Jr.
OUTFIELD – Tier 1
- Mike Trout
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Jose Siri
- Adolis Garcia
OUTFIELD – Tier II and Value
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- TJ Friedl
- Starling Marte
- Tyler O’Neill – FD
- Matt McLain – 2B – Cincinnati Reds – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Matt Olson – 1B – Braves
- Adley Rutschman – C – Orioles
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – OF – Padres
- Mike Trout – OF – Angels
- Willy Adames – SS – Brewers
- Mark Vientos – 3B – Mets
- Jose Siri – OF – Mets
- BONUS …. Bobby Witt Jr – SS – Royals
EARLY SLATE
If you are on the early two game slate I would back Baltimore. Really like Adley.
TOP BETS
Mets/Astros OVER 8
Angels/White Sox UNDER 8
Nationals ML +142
Reds ML -112
