Happy Masters Sunday to all!
MLB is a game of streaks and trends. By nature of how the sport is played it is the most “trendy” sport from one week to the next. Remember Torpedo Bats? Yeah, things come and go very quickly in this sport but when they are present they feel like they are never going to leave. For DFS and betting purposes we have to ride these trends and these streaks as some of them do hang around for what feels like an entire month or sometimes an entire year. A player owning a team for a season (Adley vs Jays, take notes) – or certain teams or players doing well on weekends or a specific day. It happens, the history and the data proves that riding trends and streaks is important in Baseball.
One of the ways to ride trends is from series to series. The Mon-Thu stretch plays one way and then the Fri-Sun plays another. In the case of DFS the early week process had a ton of stacks with one offs being the build while this weekend has been all about the one off hitters spread around as guys who are “due” get theirs. Keep that in mind when building your lineups today.
WEATHER
All clear
It really feels like all my favorite pitchers going today, can we somehow get these guys spread out please?
CHRIS SALE (DK: $9000, FD: $9500)
This is a big test for if Sale can have another great season this year. He has historically always dominated the Rays, although many of that comes in the Tropicana COSTCO lanes and now he has to deal with the warm outdoors instead. That aside, this is the time he has to get it figured out — the CSW% rate was good last start, he just got hit too much — which I don’t trust happening today. His bigger concern is getting enough run support early from the Braves cold hitters who finally woke up late yesterday. Well, all but one guy in particular who I’m expecting to do so today. 5-2 Braves win.
MACKENZIE GORE (DK: $8100, FD: $9200)
Easy button? Do you want me just to fill this space with random stats about the Marlins or do you want some random weird theory about Sundays in Miami, or do you want a random trivia question for the day? You are paying to read this, so I feel like I owe you some content here to justify this pick, so here goes…
Per FamousBirthdays.com today is the birthday of both former President, Thomas Jefferson and R&B Singer Ty Dolla $ign. As you most likely knew, Thomas Jefferson is dead and has been for 199 years, while TY Dolla $ign is turning 43 years old today. Lets compare the two.
- Height:
- When alive Jefferson was 6’2.
- Ty Dolla $ign is 6’1.
- Advantage Jefferson
- Spouse:
- Jefferson married Martha.
- Ty Dolla $ign is not married.
- Advantage Ty Dolla $ign
- Famous Achivement:
- Jefferson: Wrote the Declaration of Independence
- Ty: Was a guest feature on YG’s “Toot It and Boot It”
- …. This is a close call
So… There you have it. You’re welcome…
HUNTER GREENE (DK: $8500, FD: $10,800)
Such a wild range of price differences here, really makes you wonder if DK is baiting folks into the Greene Play. He’s been great and the Pirates have not been so great. Expect his ownership to be up there and between him and Sale it comes down to who avoids the blow up inning the most. Slight margin I give the nod to Sale
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS
- I like both Wheeler ($10,300) and Ragans ($8,400) – but Wheelers price is just a little too high for this Sunday with limited cheap SP2’s and Ragans, while definitely doing better than Opening Day is not going to have another 10+ strikeout game.
- No desire to use the three named tree dick in Simeon Woods Richardson.
- Carmen Mlodzinski is a sleeper candidate as well as the Pirates try to avoid a sweep in Cincinnati.
THE SUNDAY SLEEPER
CASEY MIZE
Mize has gone through it all in his career and at age 27 now is finally being close to what everyone expected out of him when he was drafted out of the SEC. His two starts this year against the Mariners and Yankees have been 82-88 pitches with 6 strikeouts and 3 walks in each game. The walks MUST drop down over his next month for him to be taken seriously as arguably the best #3 pitcher in the American League but it’s definitely possible and while he continues to trust a deep arsenal we should use him against a very below average offense like the Twins. For $7200 he should be higher owned today but I dont think folks are paying attention here.
So I said this is a one off weekend and I mean it. Just one spot for me today to go heavy on but you can expect the Phillies to be chalky.
ASTROS
Paredes, Alvarez, Walker, Caratini, Rodgers
You can go side with the Phillies chalk but I refeuse to believe Kyle Hendricks can pitch a third straight road game without giving up 4 ER. After dropping two touchdowns on Friday and then a breadstick yesterday, Houston rebounds today.
SECOND TIER TEAMS
- TIGERS
- ANGELS
- PHILLIES
RANDOM NUGGET
Players who hit 20+ home runs in 2024 that have yet to hit a HR this season: Alec Burleson, Bryan De La Cruz, Gunnar Henderson, Jarren Duran, Paul DeJong, Ryan Jeffers, Vlad Guerrero Jr, Willy Adames
CATCHER
- Adley Rutschman
- Victor Caratini
- Fuck if I know…
FIRST BASE
I could probably list about 10 guys here whom I would be fine using today.
- Christian Walker
- Nate Lowe
- Andrew Vaughn
- Matt Olson … Hi, look at me, I am Matt Olson. I only hit homers when the rest of my team sucks but when they do well I dont do shit.
SECOND BASE
- Brendan Rodgers
- Lenyn Sosa – 3 hole vs Crochet, best chance to Ambush him is early.
- Michael Massey
- Jazz Chisholm Jr
THIRD BASE
- Isaac Paredes
- Alec Bohm
- Zach McKinstry
SHORTSTOP
- Bobby Witt Jr. … Has hit Lively well and is an automatic 10+ DK FPTS right now.
- Gunnar Henderson … Santander got his first HR yesterday & Gunnar gets his today.
- Trea Turner
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Yordan Alvarez
- Riley Greene
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Jorge Soler
OUTFIELD – Tier II
- Nick Castellanos
- Heliot Ramos
- Cam Smith
- Kerry Carpenter
Full disclosure, I dont make someone the Chairman two days in a row unless its Ryan Braun in Philly and well, he’s retired… So Yordan cannot be todays chairman.
- Gunnar Henderson – SS – Orioles – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros
- Nick Castellanos – OF – Phillies
- Isaac Paredes – 3B – Astros
- Heliot Ramos – OF – Giants
- Michael Massey – 2B – Royals
- Matt Olson – 1B – Braves
- Some random catcher that is 30% owned for no good reason
- BONUS … Jorge Soler – OF – Angels
TOP BETS
- White Sox 1st 5 Innings ML
- Detroit ML
- Angels/Astros OVER 8.5