Happy Friday. Big weekend coming up because I am really curious what the sites do tomorrow with two 1PM games, two 2PM games, a 3PM game that’s not Toronto at home, then four at 4, one at 6 and the rest after. The folks over at FanDuel might lose their minds tomorrow with the number of slates they’ll be able to come up with.
But for now, we focus on a fine Friday with a 12 game MAIN slate tonight.
WEATHER
- Red Sox at Guardians: They can play this, but there is also an inch of rain forecasted throughout the day and they’ll probably be like, wah, rain, wah…. This is a big bummer if the game is in a delay because then we can’t get a full LiC smash spot for Boston.
- Roof is OPEN in Arizona, so congrats to the poor souls stacking the Braves if you are into that sorta thing.
You are paying up for pitching today. Not just because there are good options but the mid-tier or “bad” arms who could pitch well are priced higher than they should be. This is something that as you get older in life you realize it is worth it to not pay middle or upper-middle tier prices when you can pay the premium. I’d much rather spend the extra few dollars for my Titlest ProV1’s. Uber Black, every time. Give me extra leg room on that plane. Tip the waiter who serves you best. Pay for the extra comfort tonight…
LOGAN GILBERT (DK: $10,200, FD: $10,200)
It’s really going to be hard to pry the Cy Young away from Logan Gilbert if he keeps getting home games against really bad offenses. A man who was down around 9k for most of the season should likely be a 12k play tonight & with 24 pitching options he’ll still manage to be over 50% owned. There’s no path to a fade here, we play Gilbert and we move on. Please ignore that devil on your shoulder who is saying “that never works out”.
MICHAEL KING (DK: $9500, FD: $9300)
Great at home in comfortable PETCO and someone who is split agnostic so the high volume of lefties from Tampa should not be a concern.
NATHAN EOVALDI (DK: $9200, FD: $8500)
If Eovaldi was trusted to throw 105 pitches he would be a #1 pick tonight. Unfortunately there’s a 5 to 6 IP ceiling.
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS
- BEST CHEAP PITCHER: Seth Lugo
- We have a collision course of Milwaukee being bad vs LHP and Matthew Liberatard just being shitty tonight. I want to say Libtard is viable, but he’s $7500 and there’s just too many other plays I can use without wanting to punch a hole in my own face while the pitcher has his regression game.
- WHAT the hell … Andrew Abbott is $8600 in Coors??? LOL. No hitter incoming.
- More like Yoshinobu YamaNoNo … and I don’t mean a No-Hitter. Pirates in L.A. my friends. Pirates in L.A…
- Have fun with Sean Burke, Carlos Carrasco and Jose Berrios. You’re literally buying mid-tier golf clubs that will break. I’ll keep my PINGS.
BLUE JAYS
Santander, Vladdy, Kirk
Toronto has done well in New York, they haven’t done well of late though. When Vlad gets going, this lineup should be really good at the top. The other key bat is Alejandro Kirk. Both these guys along with Santander should hit well in New York and maybe we get the Friday night Yankee Stadium juiced balls to help out.
ATHLETICS
Wilson, Kurtz, Butler, Soderstrom
Second time these teams will see each other this year already. So advantage to the hitters, not to mention it’s the hitting friendly Sactown.
CARDINALS
Contreras, Gorman, Arenado, Walker
On a high price pitching night you’re usually better off finding the donkey cheap bats that are going to homer to go with a stack, but for a cheap stack this is as good as it gets. Why is Willson Contreras 3100? He’s gonna homer with his brother in town.
CATCHER
- Alejandro Kirk
- Yo Quero Taco Bell
- William Contreras
FIRST BASE
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Willson Contreras
- Triston Casas
- Nick Kurtz
SECOND BASE
Keaschall still great value here, but Gorman/Ozzie have power potential today. Andres Gimenez was hot early & is an okay play in the Toronto stack
- Nolan Gorman
- Ozzie Albies
- Andres Gimenez
- Luke Keaschall
THIRD BASE
- Rafael Devers
- Nolan Arenado
- Noelvi Marte … Appears to finally have figured it out & is your middle/bottom of the order not too expensive Coors bat who will find a way to go 4-5.
SHORTSTOP
This is a dumpster fire tonight. Okay, sure. Elly in Coors. But really, nothing else out there.
- Brendan Donovan – Should be in tonight.
- Elly De La Cruz
- Jacob Wilson
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Bryan Reynolds
- Anthony Santander
- Aaron Judge
- Wilyer Abreu
OUTFIELD – Tier II
- Austin Hays
- Shohei Ohtani
- Randal Grichuck
- Jordan Walker
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – 1B – Blue Jays – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Bryan Reynolds – OF – Pirates
- Rafael Devers – 3B – Red Sox
- Randal Grichuck – OF – Diamondbacks
- Anthony Santander – OF – Blue Jays
- Willson Contreras – C – Cardinals
- Jacob Wilson – SS – Athletics
- Ozzie Albies – 2B – Braves
- BONUS …. Shohei Ohtani – DH – Dodgers
TOP BETS
- Blue Jays/Yankees OVER 9.5
- Braves/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5
- Pirates ML
- Brewers/Cardinals OVER 8
- Marlins/Mariners UNDER 7.5
- Rangers/Giants UNDER 7.5