The Dongers Club – May 12th

← The Dongers Club hub  ·  Daily MLB home run picks & DFS, since August 2020. Browse the archive or see how DCPA works.

We start off with split slates as FanDuel includes a couple 6PM games and DraftKings wants you locking in at 7PM tonight.  This means that Boston at Detroit and St. Louis at Philadelphia are not on the DK Main slate. WEATHER Free and clear my friends. There are three immediate pitchers who stand out today and when I opened up the model rankings they were of course listed 1-2-3.  The Tres Amigo’s today are Skenes, Mahle and King.  Three of the better strikeout pitchers in the game and in the case of Mahle and King they draw less than dangerous opponents.  None of these arms are coming off dominant starts, Mahle is the one who worries me the most, but at the end of the day I am focused on trying to side with two guys that should get us into the 20’s tonight. MICHAEL KING (DK: $9500, FD: $10.4k) … I cannot find anything bad to say, and I think this could be one of the safer under bets on the night.  Michael King at home is as good as they come. PAUL SKENES (DK: $9700, FD: $10,600) … Someone should be happy that the manager is gone.  Skenes wasn’t exactly holding back when he said “hey, someone had to be held accountable” and pitching in Citi Field is a spot that could rattle some pitchers, but not this guy.  The Mets are hopefully enough to keep his ownership down, plus he hasn’t been ELITE in three of his last four, but when he is on, you know you are getting a safe outing.  Expect one of those upper tier spots tonight. LONGSHOT / SLEEPER PICK It’s not Yusei Kikuchi, although maybe with a few drinks I could be talked into it.  It’s also not Colin “Diah” Rea at home vs the Marlins — but the Marlins either scoring 10 runs or getting no hit in Wrigley this week does seem to feel rigiht. Justin Verlander   CUBS Ian Happ, Michael Busch, Pete Crow Armstrong They say that Ian Happ will be back in tonight and leading off for $4400 is a steal.  Quantrill vs the Cubs lineup this year feels like an easy button play.  He’s coming off a really good start vs the Dodgers, so history is NOT repeating itself here.  Cubs score early and often and have lots of men on base for sure.  It’s not…...

Keep reading — and get the full war room.

The rest of this breakdown is for members. A subscription unlocks the entire Daily Ambush platform:

  • Command Center — your entire slate on one screen
  • Tier-graded stacks (A/B/C) with heatmap and pair analysis
  • Ambush Intel — named AI agents tracking live P/L, every sport
  • Batter vs. pitcher pitch arsenals, xwOBA splits, BvP history
  • Lineup optimizer with pro stack rules and exposure controls
  • SIM Matrix — Monte Carlo simulation engine

View Membership Options Already a member? Log in