I would like to go on record right now and say that there’s a swift kick in the balls coming to MLB DFS players and Sports Betters here in May. That swift kick in the nuts is going to be the random Friday night when seemingly every player in the league finds a way to hit a home run and teams post 8 and 9 run games. Especially with the uptick in position player pitching decisions being made. Is that night tonight? Maybe not, although I think there’s a good chance it’s tonight or next Friday and then again Memorial Day weekend. Just reminding you, don’t trust MLB to not mix things up just for a random spark.
EARLY/TURBO SLATE THOUGHTS
Love all three road teams in these series all weekend. Expect fireworks in each game too
WEATHER
Dodgers at Braves: Slight chance of some storms during the game, but nothing that would make me think we get any PPD risk
TARIK SKUBAL (DK: $10,500, FD: $10,600)
Zac Gallen was dominant as I thought he would be yesterday and it’s continuing the trend of these ‘Ace’ pitchers who are hitting their stride right now. Skubal’s coming off back to back games with 35%+ or higher CSW rates and only had to throw 91 pitches to strikeout 11 Orioles last Sunday. Now the Angels, without Trout and a 33% strikeout rate vs LHP over the last 10 days are supposed to make us sweat only 10.5k in salary tonight? Uh. Alright, lets not be stupid here.
ROBBIE RAY (DK: $8600, FD: $8400)
Nothing better than some late Friday night Robbie Ray after dark magic. The… Uh.. The, Rockies have won two games in a row. They win tonight, that’s called a winning streak — it has happened before.
But it’s not happening here.
CLAY HOLMES (DK: $8100, FD: $9100)
There might be some other teams who are on the struggle bus right now, but how about the Cardinals who have only scored 1 run in each of their last 4 losses. So when they’re gonna lose, it’s the offense that is doing them in.
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS
Despite my instinct(s) that we could see juiced ball explosions for a Friday night slate, there’s a depth of pitching tonight but one where ownership is going to Skubal and Ray if people aren’t just full blown dumb… This opens up some good lower ownership pivots.
- MAX FRIED (DK: $9500, FD: $10,400): The Rays are sliding against lefties & get their second shot in the division against Max Fried, who is into his May form now and maybe not getting the strikeouts he was mid April but peak Max Fried is going 100+ pitches and getting a ton of ground ball outs. Keeping the ball down in Yankee Stadium is critical given two big elements here. #1. The Weather is warming up and #2. Fridays in May = Juiced Balls.
- BRYAN WOO (DK: $8400, FD: $9600): We have a collision course of two narratives here. Will the Mariners pitchers continue to be just average away from home or will the Rangers offense continue to just not score runs? Woo dominated them in Seattle in early April & despite all the lineup changes the Rangers now are still struggling to score consistently and remain without Corey Seager likely for tonight as he does try to return this weekend.
ROYALS
Witt, Pasquantino, Perez, Garcia
Finally, the Royals offense is putting it together and getting away from Kauffman Stadium definitely helps right now. Dean Kremer? Please, let me know when Pasquantino drops some meatballs on Boogs BBQ tonight. Wait, that sounds bad. Well, whatever. Royals score 7+ with ease today.
TWINS
Correa, Buxton, France, Julien
Carlos Correa has always hit well in Fenway & the whole pricing on the Twins tonight is comical given the good hitters park, Bello being average and the need for some possible HR power for cheap with high end pitching using up salary. Love the Twins. Which is never good for me. But, here we go.
OTHER HITTING SPOTS
- GUARDIANS: The Chris Bassitt 2025 Cy Young Campaign is over and a negative number is coming.
- DODGERS: Gee, I wonder which game could have those magic balls in them.
- WHITE SOX: Expect Framber to be a chalky SP today as well, but he is so up and down and TBH, the White Sox are kinda respectable against lefties.
CATCHER
- Bo Naylor – He’s homering. He’s 2600. We’re playing him.
- Salvador Perez – Hopefully he is ok and plays, can use at 1B too but … Vinnie.
- Alejandro Kirk – A bargain right now compared to other catchers. Where else can you get a guy who is going to hammer the crap out of a ball off the wall in left field and you aren’t sure if he will get thrown out at first.
FIRST BASE
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Michael Busch
- Carlos Santana
SECOND BASE
- Edouard Julien
- Colt Keith
- Maikel Garcia
THIRD BASE
- Max Muncy
- Jose Ramirez
- Jonathan India
SHORTSTOP
- Carlos Correa
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Mookie Betts
- Dansby Swanson
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Seiya Suzuki … Loves Milwaukee. Must be the food.
- Cedric Mullins
- Byron Buxton
- Shohei Ohtani … Yeah. So. Um. Yeah, good luck Atlanta.
OUTFIELD Tier II
- Trevor Larnach
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Brent Rooker
- JJ Bleday
- Daniel Schneemann
- Vinnie Pasquantino – 1B – Kansas City Royals – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Bo Naylor – C – Guardians
- Cedric Mullins – OF – Orioles
- Seiya Suzuki – OF – Cubs
- Jung Hoo Lee – OF – Giants
- Maikel Garcia – 2B/3B – Royals
- Max Muncy – 3B – Dodgers
- Carlos Correa – SS – Twins
- BONUS …….. Shohei Ohtani – Dodgers
TOP BETS
Royals/Orioles OVER 9
Dodgers/Braves OVER 9
Royals ML
Guardians ML
Mariners/Rangers UNDER 8.5
Cubs ML