WEATHER
Very slight rain delay chances in the Red Sox/Yankees and Diamondbacks/Reds games tonight, but neither is any PPD risk. All in all it’s a favorable weather night for offense but nothing extreme yet.
SETH LUGO (DK: $8800, FD: $8900)
Second start after coming off the IL for a brief couple weeks. The Tigers roughed him up, but the White Sox are not likely to do that much damage against Mr. Kitchen sink throwing everything he can against other teams. I put everything on his last start on a guy who throws everything he can just being rusty.
KODAI SENGA (DK: $9000, FD: $10.6k)
Congrats to the Rockies on their sweep in South Beach and now they’ll come back home to Coors against the Mets — who are coming off a Dodgers series — and we get the absolute worst Coors Field game anyone has ever seen. 0-0 through 5 innings with the Mets then exploding for 7 or 8 chalk runs in the final two innings once they wake up. For the Rockies vs Senga, they’ve got no shot — even at home.
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS
- TARIK SKUBAL: The Cubs bring their good vs LHP lineup in to Comerica Park against an $11,500 Tarik Skubal. The guy is pitching great, yes. He is the best pitcher in the game, yes. He is not that automatic of a ‘blind’ play him no matter what scenario here. I do like a good amount of value bats tonight though, so he can be fit.
- SPENCER SCHWELLENBACH: … Just play Skubal?
- Im not a big fan of either pitcher in the Houston/Cleveland game but they’re cheap and viable as punt options.
This is the really tough section to write up today as I could probably come up with half a dozen teams and still wouldn’t be touching on all the ones who pop off for me today. Let’s first cover the ‘Games’ that have the most interest to me.
- Padres at Brewers: If this game ends up 3-2 I am going to be furious, but it’s path to ending 3-2 is both teams leaving men on base. Really want the Padres side, but the Brewers are facing the worse pitcher who is finally losing his glass slipper. Tatis/Merrill vs Choriou/Yelich is a monster decision for stacks. The keys are Luis Arraez having a huge night and Manny Machado having 2+ XBH. Lean Padres.
- Orioles at Athletics: I want to load up on Baltimore and expect them to take the series here, but they’re a harder team to stack against LHP right now because of no Mountcastle in the lineup. If Coby Mayo is gonna do something it has to be tonight, but 3B is extremely deep, so you could pivot him to 1B along with Adley and then Urias or Rivera at 3B in a cheap Orioles RHH stack against Sears. The Athletics will give a rude welcome to Dean Kremer going into the hitter friendly Sacramento Health park as well.
SECOND TIER GAMES
- Mariners at Angels: Angels could explode again.
- Diamondbacks at Reds: Lean more on D’Backs side
- Red Sox at Yankees: Gee, which baseballs are gonna be used here?
ISOLATED TEAMS
- Royals: Value – bottom of order
- Tigers: Top of lineup Ambush
CATCHER
- Alejandro Kirk
- Adley Rutschman
- Gabriel Moreno
- Tyler Stephenson
FIRST BASE
- Luis Arraez … This is a great spot for Arraez. You’re obviously not playing him for the power but a 4-5 type night is definitely viable.
- Nolan Schanuel
- Vinnie Pasquantino
SECOND BASE
- Ketel Marte
- Matt McLain
- Michael Massey … He has been dog shit … He wakes up this weekend.
THIRD BASE
Talk about Mt. Rushmore of positions. Geno going back to Cincy. Machado is great in Milwaukee and of course, Devers vs the Yankees.
- Eugenio Suarez
- Manny Machado
- Rafael Devers
- Coby Mayo
SHORTSTOP
- Bo Bichette
- Mookie Betts
- JP Crawford
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Jackson Merrill
- Christian Yelich
- Lawrence Butler
- Parker Meadows
OUTFIELD – Tier II
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Randal Grichuk
- Jac Caglianone
- George Springer
- Lourdes Gurriel
- Jackson Merrill – OF – San Diego Padres – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Nolan Schanuel – 1B – Angels
- Manny Machado – 3B – Padres
- JP Crawford – SS – Mariners
- Christian Yelich – OF – Brewers
- Michael Massey – 2B – Royals
- Alejandro Kirk – C – Blue Jays
- Lawrence Butler – OF – Athletics
- BONUS ….. Coby Mayo – 1B/3B – Orioles
TOP BETS
San Diego/Milwaukee OVER 8.5
Baltimore/Athletics OVER 11.5
Toronto ML
Houston/Cleveland UNDER 8.5