We have ourselves a 15 gamer tonight and there are a total of 16 games as the Guardians/White Sox opted to skip last night and play two today giving us an afternoon game as well.
WEATHER
Should be clear of PPD tonight.
CHASE BURNS (DK: $7500, FD: $8800)
We have a gift from DraftKings if you do not care about ownership. If you do care about ownership then this stinks because Burns had his little blow up game in Boston – where he likely was tipping his pitches – and then came back against a good Phillies team to work around a few walks and still have 7 K over 4 2/3 IP with a 50%+ ground ball rate as well.
The Rockies now come into GABP and while it’s a good hitters park too, it’s still the Rockies on the road where they just put up a total of 7 runs in 3 games in Fenway with good hitting conditions. Expect a Burns 7+ strikeout performance today and the books have adjusted his K prop back accordingly.
TARIK SKUBAL (DK: $12k, FD: $11.5k)
I wrote about this earlier in the week but on these huge slates you apply the ‘Sale’ theory and just pay for the stud pitcher who is on a roll. The value bats will figure themselves out tonight.
JOE RYAN (DK: $10k, FD: $10.3k)
It’s not just that Ryan is facing the Pirates, but also that he is facing the Pirates when Skenes pitches. Which means the Twins win and the Pirates score 0 runs.
NOTE: Skenes is fine as well and equal to Skubal/Ryan IMO.
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS
- It feels like Paul Skenes was going slow at the start of the season & now is in “f you” mode. The guy is pitching exceptionally well despite zero run support. Which, he likely runs into again tonight.
- Gavin Williams is worth taking a glance at pending how the first game plays out.
- I don’t mind Ranger Suarez, but he’s clearly behind about 4 or 5 other options today, but the gap is not as big as it might seem. Suarez should give up a homer we just dont know if there are two on when he does it to Manny tonight.
RED SOX
Yoshida, Bregman, Story, Mayer
Bregman is back tonight or tomorrow. But it’s the rest of the guys who are of interest along with my eyes telling me Rasmussen is hitting a wall. He has gone 92-62-54-32 pitches over his last four. He’s given up HR in back to back games and is not getting much whiffs. The Sox are keeping the line moving & have the right mix of value bats that are likely 2% owned tonight. Boston wins the slate…
BLUE JAYS
Guerrero Jr, Barger
Out in Sacramento with 100+ degree temps, Luis Severino and the Athletics just used their good late inning bullpen arms a good amount. This should be a spot where we see a position player pitching IMO…
CUBS vs YANKEES
Cubs pen should implode, oh wait, they’re starting Chris Flexen? CMON Cubs…
OTHER GOOD GAMES
- MARLINS vs ORIOLES: Stowers return to Baltimore. Stallings revenge too? Eh.
- DIAMONDBACKS vs ANGELS: Angels SP is a disaster right now
- NATIONALS vs BREWERS
CATCHER
- Austin Wells
- Alejandro Kirk
- Jacob Stallings
FIRST BASE
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Nate Lowe
- Justin Turner … One of those ‘value’ punt options today
SECOND BASE
- Marcelo Mayer
- Colt Keith
- Matt McLain
- Jeff McNeil
THIRD BASE
- Austin Riley
- Alex Bregman
- Jose Ramirez
- Addison Barger
SHORTSTOP
- Francisco Lindor … Mr. central park killer. He homers twice.
- Bo Bichette
- Gunnar Henderson
- Trevor Story
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Seiya Suzuki
- Kyle Stowers
- Cody Bellinger
- Lawrence Butler
OUTFIELD – Tier II
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
- Jackson Chourio
- James Wood
- Jac Caglianone
- Masataka Yoshida
- Francisco Lindor – SS – New York Mets – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – 1B – Blue Jays
- Lawrence Butler – OF – Athletics
- Austin Riley – 3B – Braves
- Marcus Semien – 2B – Rangers
- Seiya Suzuki – OF – Cubs
- Jacob Stallings – C – Orioles
- Jac Caglianone – OF – Royals
- BONUS … Nathan Lukes – OF – Blue Jays
- Jays/Athletics OVER 10.5
- Royals ML
- Marlins/Orioles OVER 9