We have ourselves a 15 gamer tonight and there are a total of 16 games as the Guardians/White Sox opted to skip last night and play two today giving us an afternoon game as well. WEATHER Should be clear of PPD tonight. CHASE BURNS (DK: $7500, FD: $8800) We have a gift from DraftKings if you do not care about ownership. If you do care about ownership then this stinks because Burns had his little blow up game in Boston – where he likely was tipping his pitches – and then came back against a good Phillies team to work around a few walks and still have 7 K over 4 2/3 IP with a 50%+ ground ball rate as well. The Rockies now come into GABP and while it’s a good hitters park too, it’s still the Rockies on the road where they just put up a total of 7 runs in 3 games in Fenway with good hitting conditions. Expect a Burns 7+ strikeout performance today and the books have adjusted his K prop back accordingly. TARIK SKUBAL (DK: $12k, FD: $11.5k) I wrote about this earlier in the week but on these huge slates you apply the ‘Sale’ theory and just pay for the stud pitcher who is on a roll. The value bats will figure themselves out tonight. JOE RYAN (DK: $10k, FD: $10.3k) It’s not just that Ryan is facing the Pirates, but also that he is facing the Pirates when Skenes pitches. Which means the Twins win and the Pirates score 0 runs. NOTE: Skenes is fine as well and equal to Skubal/Ryan IMO. OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS It feels like Paul Skenes was going slow at the start of the season & now is in “f you” mode. The guy is pitching exceptionally well despite zero run support. Which, he likely runs into again tonight. Gavin Williams is worth taking a glance at pending how the first game plays out. I don’t mind Ranger Suarez, but he’s clearly behind about 4 or 5 other options today, but the gap is not as big as it might seem. Suarez should give up a homer we just dont know if there are two on when he does it to Manny tonight. RED SOX Yoshida, Bregman, Story, Mayer Bregman is back tonight or tomorrow. But it’s the rest of the guys who are of interest along…...
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