The first full Saturday of the season with a dynamite Noon kick off game and then a pretty darn good night slate tonight as well. As one would expect you have some ‘cupcake’ type games early in this season which will factor into determining if you want to full stack a team who is likely going to win by 30 but could maybe dial it back on their starters. Usually I stay away from those type scenarios on my main lineup this early.
I am still DraftKings only this early in the season – I am having to do some significant upgrades on our CFB Model/Matchups pages to make the analysis between the slate differences easier this year and was gonna work on that on my 7 hour flight — but thanks for shitty WiFi United. Hope to have that fully operational by next week.
FAU vs MARYLAND
Favorite game of the day has to be FAU and Maryland and the FAU passing game is going to be called upon to keep them in this game.
- FAU: Caden Veltkamp & Easton Messer
- UMD: Nolan Ray, Jalil Farooq, Dorian Fleming
BALL STATE vs PURDUE
Purdue has been miserable of late and comes in with a new coaching staff and a ton of new players. Expecting an instant flip and covering -17 against an in-state cupcake team like Ball State is too much for me, so I think we’ll see Ball State hang in here and with chalky Purdue players as well it’s likely smart to “run it back” as we say in the biz.
- PURDUE: Ryan Browne, Devin Mockobee, Michael Jackson III
- BALL STATE: Kiael Kelly, Qian Magwood
Caden Veltkamp (FAU – $7600) … I will need to see improvements from the Terps before I think they are drastically a defense to not target. Veltkamp completed 66% of his passes last season starting for Western Kentucky & brings in his top WR target as a transfer to FAU as well.
Ryan Browne (Purdue – $5200) … Cheap and chalky, what a fantastic way to start the CFB Saturday season, right?
S-FLEX OPTION
- Drew Allar (Penn State – $8900) … Tyler Warren is gone and we all know about the 2-headed RB monster. But this is Allar’s team and they have good WR options, a soft early game today and ideal conditions to just let him air it out in a blowout to stat pad a Heisman campaign. He’ll get you 20+ points by halftime. The question is, does he get you 30+ by the end of the 3Q before he is resting.
Devin Mockobee (Purdue – $6300) … Folks will definitely play Ryan Browne at QB, but Mockobee to me is going to score twice and rush for over 100 yards in this game. He is a must play in any game-script.
Nolan Ray (Maryland – $7000) … The best game on the slate and the home RB with a new offensive line and a change in OC that wants to emphasize the running game. FAU should be bad against the run & this is a heavy workshare expected for Ray, who of all players with at least 50 rushes in college football last season, had a PFF elusiveness score which was 19th-best in the country, one spot ahead of former college football star Cam Skattebo.
Maurice Turner (Tulane – $5000) … Give me a home RB making his team debut over the chalky Davon Booth (Miss St.) on the road. This could turn into a rotational scenario, but he is expected to start and is very cheap with a great OL & a system that produces solid RB’s.
FLEX OPTIONS
- Nicholas Singleton (Penn State – $8800) & Kaytron Allen (Penn State – $7600) … I have no concerns with anything on Penn State today. None of them are terrible plays and someone is going to produce you good value, but picking which one between these two or even Allar against a terrible Nevada defense is truly a spinning wheel scenario.
Elijah Sarratt (Indiana – $7100) … A Virginia boy who gets to beat up the dummies from ODUh again in his career. He torched Old Dominion two years ago & is in my mind one of the best WR on this slate. Yes, I know Jeremiah Smith is playing and yes I think he’s a good play too — but Sarratt is the #1 pick here.
Easton Messer (FAU – $7500) … Favorite game of the day has to be FAU and Maryland and the FAU passing game is going to be called upon to keep them in this game. The Terps finished 2024 allowing almost 280 passing yards per game.
Trebor Pena (Penn State – $6000) … This really does smell like a spot where Penn State gets TD through Allar early and they build up his Heisman Resume. Pena would likely benefit in this scenario, although Kyron Hudson (another transfer) is equally viable and cheaper.
FLEX OPTIONS
- The STUDS — Ryan Williams and Jeremiah Smith. Both will shine today, but not necessarily in the scenario where we lock them in for DFS at 9k prices with so many good WR options on the slate.
- Jalil Farooq (UMD – $6300) … Game stack scenario mostly. Maryland has a ton of new options so we’re not in a get the new guy his TD scenario here, but Farooq could come up big in a situation if the game blows up.
- Michael Jackson III (Purdue – $3000)
- Anthony Evans (Mississippi State – $5800)
DEEPEST POSITION FOR FLEX
Early CFB DFS = Early WR stacks. Load up on at least 4 if not 5 WR, although I dont hate my top 3 RB as a core build either and may end up there. Definitely only using 1 QB.
CORE PLAYS
RB: Devin Mockobee (PUR)
WR: Easton Messer (FAU)
WR: Elijah Sarratt (IU)
FAVORITE BETS
FAU +14.5
Tennessee -13.5
Southern Mississippi +14
Tulane -4.5
Ball State +17.5