KANSAS STATE at BAYLOR
- This game is not your optimal cash game stack, but it’s a GPP dream for the “content’ crowd. Avery Johnson vs Sawyer Robertson, but mid to low owned. Dylan Edwards, Jayce Brown, Bryson Washington/Caden Knighten, Josh Cameron. Lots of options to stack here, costly but easily the game that you can see finishing 34-27.
IOWA STATE at CINCINNATI
- This is a naked QB stack game: Rocco Becht vs Brendan Sorsby
CLEMSON (@NORTH CAROLINA)
- Two things can be true here. A) Clemson and UNC can both be as bad as they look, and B) UNC can play this like their Super Bowl and finally get something going.
- That aside, Klubnik – Randall – Wesco – Williams for Clemson is going to find a way to produce. UNC just does not have the defensive power to slow them down enough
TOP PLAYS
A very STRONG slate of Quarterback options once again as the pricing remains optimal for building around 2 QB everywhere.
The Cincy/Iowa State game features two guys that can be used naked for low prices with Sorsby being the very chalky one. He is more consistent to rush on the ground & Becht is more likely to just accumulate garbage yards on third down runs.
- Ryan Browne – Purdue – $6600 … Browne and Purdue are my top upset pick on the slate. Illinois is coming into a big time let down game after thinking they had a big win vs USC. Love Browne, who like the guys below can also be used naked.
- Rocco Becht – Iowa State – $6100
- Brendan Sorsby – Cincinnati – $6800
BEST VALUE
- Brendan Sorsby
BEST SLEEPER
- Miller Moss –
TOP PLAYS
- Ismail Mahdi – Arizona – $6100 … This is what we call one of those ‘get right’ spots as Arizona returns off a blowout at Iowa State to face lowly Oklahoma State. When that happens you can pretty much be assured of one easy drive that results in the RB getting a rushing touchdown. Mahdi might get 3 of them today.
- Jeremiyah Love – Notre Dame – $9800 … It feels very evident that Notre Dame is just gonna run Love all the way back into hopes of being in the CFB playoff again. He is this years guy who you just gotta sweat if he is gonna pop for 30+ every single week.
- Dylan Edwards – Kansas State – $7500
- Bryson Washington & Caden Knighton – Baylor … Monitor health on Washington. Kansas State is 118th against the rush.
TOP PLAYS
Can’t say we are loaded with high end WR options but you do get a ton of nice value out there.
- Caullin Lacy – Louisville – $5300 … Chris Bell is better and equally a fine play, however that $1800 price diff is huge.
- Germie Bernard – Alabama – $6900 … Revenge for the loss a year ago and a team that is figuring it out but coming off a big win themselves. Lean on Bernard because I don’t think Alabama’s defense is going to let Vanderbilt do much but Vandy plays slow. So the path here is better for Bernard at $6900 than Ry Williams at $8100.
- Hank Beatty – Illinois – $5400
- Colbie Young – Georgia – $6000
- Josh Cameron – Baylor – 6700 … Boost if Washington is out.
BEST VALUE
- Benjamin Brahmer – Iowa State – $3300 … Rocco’s TE has 3 TD on the season and while I don’t think you have to pair Rocco with a receiver today, having him shouldn’t hurt.
- Trebor Pena – Penn State – $5100 … A very meh game but Penn State feels like a team who plays better out west. Pena is getting touches in the right spots too. Wait, that sounds bad…
BEST SLEEPER(S)
- Antonio Williams – Clemson – $7800 .. High price will keep folks away, but he might go for 150 and 3 TD
DEEPEST POSITION FOR FLEX
QB / WR … WR although not top heavy has depth.
CORE PLAYS
QB – Ryan Browne (Purdue)
RB – Ismail Mahdi (Arizona)
WR – Caullin Lacy (Louisville)
SFLEX – Rocco Becht (Iowa State)
FAVORITE BETS
Purdue +9.5 / Purdue ML
Clemson / UNC over 46.5
LATE: Mississippi State / Texas A&M UNDER 55.5