Welcome Back.
The phrase, we live in uncertain times is nothing new and to sit here and say that we’re in weird times isn’t anything that really should draw too much attention. But, it’s true, and it’s very true in terms of how we want to enjoy our lives outside of the normal routine from a Sports and Entertainment perspective. I’ve stayed away from much of the MLB off-season chatter this year and as someone who loves Baseball more than anything else, that’s a little different but at the same time it was a nice reset. I’ve come back to what feels like far more MLB hype than I am used too hearing this time and maybe that’s because my eyes and ears are open more than my mouth and fingers are yapping this time of year.
As a tech nerd myself, I have fully embraced certain aspects of the advancements in automation, AI-coding and other buzz trends that many others are embracing finally. I’ve been doing the MLB Dashboards, modeling and tools development ever since I started this site during COVID (Shout out to those who remember the KBO DFS Dashboard, lord that thing was ugly but fucking awesome). Now, everyone and their left testicle seemingly has vibe coded some type of model and is claiming they can do it well on Twitter, Instagram, Tiktok or whatever thing the kids are using these days.
Everyone, except … The people who claimed they founded the DFS community of course. It’s wild. You’ll see far more coming out of the younger betting community in terms of innovation and great tools than those who have tried to claim they invented the concept that the only way to win in MLB DFS is by stacking the highest implied run totals each night. It really just proves who has creative minds and who doesn’t. I say this rant just because, I’ve been finding it helpful to speed up the cleanliness or the MLB Dashboard, Adding good Betting tools and improving the user experience and have liked to see others doing similar things out there. I also caution you though, be careful with the claims others are going to make in regards to their success early in the season. Everyone has success before May in Baseball.
It’s those who will still be around in June and July and are sticking with their beliefs, sticking with their dedication and have been through this process before that will need to be trusted and listened too. The noise is growing from newcomers and it’s sad to see the old crowd just not understand what they should be doing. I know some people who have been in ‘Fantasy’ for a long time, their whole lives, and you’ll never see them advancing because they just don’t get it and they just don’t trust the right source. Learn the power of no this season, learn the power of saying no to the plays you do not trust and limit your risk of being impatient. Even though we may not have a great MLB season in 2027 due to labor issues, there is no reason for us to panic and to press now.
Think of those you have lost since you started playing fantasy Baseball.
Think of that random platoon 3B who homered twice on a Sunday once.
Think of those girls in Chase Field on their phones giving us good content in the pre-pitch clock era when a D’Backs game was lasting 4 hours.
Think of that time Coors FIeld had 21-19 games between the Rockies and Marlins.
Think of that time Mike Zunino … wait, no, don’t think about that…
For me … I have many Baseball memories. One that I don’t think I’ve ever shared which means nothing to anyone else is one that I’ll forever be extremely fond of. It was an irrelevant night in my life. It was 2007’ish. I was in in my late 20’s, married, two kids, in Cape Cod on vacation. We had a typical Cape house that had many rooms on the main floor, an old basement and a couple rooms upstairs. One of the rooms on the main floor was the den, with a TV, an old couch and an old recliner. I sat down as the kids were going to sleep, the wife had cooked us a nice meal and was relaxing and I sat down to watch TV which was the Red Sox playing … shit, I don’t even remember who — I want to say the Twins. It was August. It was quiet outside, just the summer noise, nothing in the house. No smart phone bothering me, no betting to think about, just a fantasy team roster to kinda think about in the back of my mind but that’s not why I was watching. I was like Terence Mann, not knowing why I was watching, but it was peaceful, it was as if I had no other care in the world, I just wanted to sit down and watch a game.
Was it as entertaining as the countless playoff games I have been too in my life? Across any number of sports? No.
But to me, it’s what Baseball really is. That peace. That comfort. The thing you can never quit, and never quits you either. It’s survived so much more than whatever it’s about to go into now and it will be surviving long after we are all gone. So, let’s just appreciate it for what it is and always has been.
Our pastime.
WEATHER
We begin with site synchronicity this season and that is great news between FD and DK. The weather today, while a little windy, does not appear to be impacting any of the games that are actually going today as opposed to all the teams NOT playing today for some unknown reason.
- Nats/Cubs: Wind blowing in and some rain in Wrigley
Overall, this is an unusually warm Opening Day, should be fantastic for all these stadiums fans today and good hitting environments.
- Twins/Orioles
- Rangers/Phillies
- Rays/Cardinals
- Red Sox/Reds
TREVOR ROGERS (DK: $8100, FD: $9300)
The Twins are going to be awful. Pitching, hitting, announcers, it’s all bad here folks. Put them down for dead last in a competitive AL Central & picking on the lineup is one thing that is going to be a consistent (but hopefully not overdone) theme of this article throughout the season. Rogers drawing the opening day start for Baltimore is a good nod after he continued his Baltimore success a year ago – he is their ace. He will go 6+ today.
PAUL SKENES (DK: $10k, FD: $10,8k)
There’s a group here of Skenes, Skubal Crochet, Brown and Sanchez that are all pretty similar and none of which I am thrilled with loading up with today given that paying up for pitching this early in the season is a bad EV play
— Quick rant why: You are paying premium prices on a guy who needs to get through a higher amount of TBF to get to his go off tier. That just doesn’t happen this early in the season with the ace pitchers. They’re not gonna throw 8 IP now where as they would in mid-May or June. —
But all that aside I want a piece of one of them, we just have too. Give me Skenes. He’s had the WBC benefit of high pressure pitching already & is likely to be just fine in a hyped up Citi-FIeld.
OPENING DAY SLEEPER
- CADE CAVALLI (DK: $6300, FD: $7000): File this one under the category of – how the hell did this team win on Opening Day? No, the Nationals probably do not deliver as a March/April dog here – but I’m also not running to make claims that the Cubs will carry over their early we rake at home success from 2025 into 2026. It’s yucky weather in Wrigley and you do not need a vibe coded app to tell you that this should be a lower scoring game. Go here for some strong value if you want any.
TIGERS
Another favorable hitting spot and I just do not see why the Padres aren’t being destroyed for what they have assembled here this season. They’ve got some injuries yes, but this pitching staff trying to put together old veterans is just a horrific idea. It might work on a Tuesday night in PETCO – but not a day game and not against a team with some primed young bats that are going to break out even more. Love the Tigers stack and before you hit me with implied run totals, I wanna hit you back with a reminder that they’re not real and when a team has their ace going the o/u is driven by that more than the teams matchup vs the other pitcher. Detroit scores 7 today.
- TIGERS: Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Kevin McGonigle
RED SOX vs REDS
Cannot ignore the value of this small park in a day game with friendly hitting weather and I found that out just by opening a damn web browser, not hard. So the natural thing here is to look at the Boston side, but Crochet while a great strikeout machine does have two bats in Eugenio Suarez (Welcome back homer) and Sal Stewart (everyones darling) that he has to make sure he doesn’t make a mistake too. Willson Contreras is your easy button catcher everywhere, familiar with the park from his NL Central days and just profiles fantastic against Abbott.
- RED SOX: Willson Contreras, Trevor Story, Roman Anthony
- REDS: Eugenio Suarez, Sal Stewart
NEXT BEST RANKED
- ORIOLES: Pete Alonso, Tyler O’Neill, Samuel Basallo, Colton Cowser
CATCHER
- Ivan Herrera
- Samuel Basallo
FIRST BASE
- Willson Contreras
- Sal Stewart
- Pete Alonso
- Nolan Schanuel
SECOND BASE
- Gleyber Torres
- Brandon Lowe … He’s a Pirate now, arrrgh.
- Matt McLain
THIRD BASE
- Eugenio Suarez
- Junior Caminero
- Munetaka Murakami
SHORTSTOP
Sneaky good spot today with some nice value here.
- Trevor Story
- Gunnar Henderson
- Zach Neto
- Kevin McGonigle
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Bryan Reynolds
- Kerry Carpenter
- Tyler O’Neill … Mr. Opening Day
- Romany Anthony
- Bryan Reynolds – OF – Pittsburgh Pirates – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Kerry Carpenter – OF Tigers
- Willson Contreras – 1B – Red Sox
- Samuel Basallo – C – Orioles
- Tyler O’Neill – OF – Orioles
- Trevor Story – SS – Red Sox
- Eugenio Suarez – 3B – Reds
- Gleyber Torres – 2B – Tigers
- BONUS …. Marcell Ozuna – OF – Pirates … Also, a Pirate now.
BETS
- Pittsburgh ML
- Cincinnati ML
- Tigers / Padres OVER 7
Good luck and welcome back Baseball!