SITE SLATE BREAKDOWN
The annual tradition is back. Satudray’s when FanDuel has a million MLB DFS slates and we really just deal with DraftKings for pricing and slate analysis. This article covers the 8 game 2pm EST Early Slate window.
WEATHER
Aaaaaaaaaand it’s cold. Hopefully for just a day or two, but damn it’s cold. This is when we get away from those Opening Day warm weather and likely juiced up environments to expect some colder/faster paced games which move right along.
- Stolen Bases- I have long thought that SB attempts are lower in cold because players are less likely to risk injury to hamstrings but it’s just not true. In fact, Stolen Base success rates have jumped significantly up when the temperature is below 50 degrees. There’s also a boost to games that are really cold in going over the expected total, likely because the pitchers struggle with grips, more walks and … more steals to get guys in scoring position. The 45-60 degree range is prime for unders, but for some of these really cold games I would target the steals today.
KYLE BRADISH (DK: $8300)
The Orioles will use a 6-man rotation likely for a good portion of this season to not over extend guys like Bradish, but in DFS that’s not a problem for us at all. As expected, the Twins offense was very pedestrian on opening day & should be one to target a good deal this season.
EURY PEREZ (DK: $7900)
And now we plug and play the SP vs the Rockies recommendation of the day. Something that will certainly have its failures along the way, but not with elite arm talent like Perez who had a very high whiff % in spring for those that are big on Spring trends for pitchers. Perez combined with Bradish just feels like an automatic get you good points play today, so that’s the no brainer start in my mind.
OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS …
- I think Aaron Nola is going to have a little bit of a bounce back season where he gives the Phillies 6 innings every start and doesn’t have as many blow ups as his curve ball should do well with the ABS if used right. But not now, absolutely not now and not until May most likely. Similar thoughts on deGrom, I’m in a wait and see mode on him.
- Dylan Cease is someone I think gets beat up today. Fading that spot as I always do with top end SP who change teams early.
ATHLETICS
Put all the weather noise aside and just trust the small park in a Dome. When a top end pitcher changes teams in the off-season there is that early pressure and the battery reliance that also can mess things up. They won’t give up a ton of runs, but they will struggle early and you can Ambush them if you are good. The Athletics lineup is good. Brent Rooker is the second coming of Mike Trout on Saturday’s lately as well. Love the A’s.
- Brent Rooker
- Shea Langeliers
- Nick Kurtz
- Lawrence Butler
RED SOX / REDS
Another spot with a veteran SP changing teams, and maybe not one to expect a massive total in, but Elly getting on and stealing is something to definitely target & hard not to try and take a shot on Singer giving up 2 homers as well
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN)
- Matt McLain (CIN)
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS)
- Roman Anthony (BOS)
CATCHER
- Adley Rutschman
- Shea Langeliers
- Danny Jansen – Value/punt
FIRST BASE
- Nick Kurtz
- Yandy Diaz
- Jonathan Aranda
SECOND BASE
- Nico Hoerner
- Matt McLain
- Davis Schneider
THIRD BASE
- Sal Stewart
- Bo Bichette
- Alex Bregman
SHORTSTOP
- Elly De La Cruz
- Jacob Wilson
- Trevor Story
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Brent Rooker
- Wilyer Abreu
- Jakob Marsee
- Ian Happ
- Brent Rooker – OF – Athletics – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Ian Happ – OF – Cubs
- Wilyer Abreu – OF – Red Sox
BETS
- Athletics / Blue Jays OVER 8.5 (Lets try this again!)
- Cubs ML + Marlins ML Parlay
- Pirates ML (+135)