The Dongers Club – April 14th

I did a ton of analysis digging last night as the games were going on to really just dissect between conspiracy theories and weather touts as to what was really happening with the sudden boost in offense.  And the results were pretty strong. Overall SPIN rate was significantly down yesterday, which is a huge correlation to fastballs getting drilled.  When you just watched games last night, you saw more middle-middle pitches that would lead to more barrels and more long hit balls.  But, we also saw balls carrying clearly more than they have been and sure enough the data backed it up. Even taking into account weather, there was a +2.5% boost on the carry for all balls hit last night.  This means that it wasn’t just weather.  The ball was traveling further. But it couldn’t just be different baseballs.  There was something to the first inning struggles as all but one game had runs in the first inning last night and most of them had homers in the first inning.  It was the starting pitcher struggling.  They couldn’t grip it right and they couldn’t get movement on their fastballs. So the analysis I did went back the last 2-3 seasons (not further because I wanted to keep in the current 100% humidor and new baseball era).  What I found was interesting.  It’s a theory that is as follows: Pitchers who go from a cold game to a suddenly warm/humid game get hit significantly harder. Across nearly 2,000 starts over the last two seasons: They give up 5 more points of hard hit rate (30.8% vs 25.7%) They give up 43% more home runs (0.86/game vs 0.60/game) Their strikeout rate drops 4 full points (18.4% vs 22.4%) They give up about one extra hit per game And it’s worse for fastball-heavy guys like Kikuchi and Crochet. When a pitcher who lives on his fastball goes from pitching in 50-degree weather to suddenly 75+, he loses feel on his primary weapon. The grip is different, the release is different, the ball comes out flatter with less bite. Hitters aren’t missing it anymore, and when they hit it, the warm air helps it carry further. The cold-to-cold guys?   They’re fine. The warm-to-warm guys?   Fine. It’s specifically the transition that kills them. Their hands haven’t adjusted to the conditions yet, and the results show it immediately — fewer strikeouts, more hard contact, more…...