I did a ton of analysis digging last night as the games were going on to really just dissect between conspiracy theories and weather touts as to what was really happening with the sudden boost in offense. And the results were pretty strong.
Overall SPIN rate was significantly down yesterday, which is a huge correlation to fastballs getting drilled. When you just watched games last night, you saw more middle-middle pitches that would lead to more barrels and more long hit balls. But, we also saw balls carrying clearly more than they have been and sure enough the data backed it up.
Even taking into account weather, there was a +2.5% boost on the carry for all balls hit last night. This means that it wasn’t just weather. The ball was traveling further.
But it couldn’t just be different baseballs. There was something to the first inning struggles as all but one game had runs in the first inning last night and most of them had homers in the first inning. It was the starting pitcher struggling. They couldn’t grip it right and they couldn’t get movement on their fastballs.
So the analysis I did went back the last 2-3 seasons (not further because I wanted to keep in the current 100% humidor and new baseball era). What I found was interesting. It’s a theory that is as follows:
Pitchers who go from a cold game to a suddenly warm/humid game get hit significantly harder. Across nearly 2,000 starts over the last two seasons:
They give up 5 more points of hard hit rate (30.8% vs 25.7%)
- They give up 43% more home runs (0.86/game vs 0.60/game)
- Their strikeout rate drops 4 full points (18.4% vs 22.4%)
- They give up about one extra hit per game
And it’s worse for fastball-heavy guys like Kikuchi and Crochet.
When a pitcher who lives on his fastball goes from pitching in 50-degree weather to suddenly 75+, he loses feel on his primary weapon. The grip is different, the release is different, the ball comes out flatter with less bite. Hitters aren’t missing it anymore, and when they hit it, the warm air helps it carry further.
- The cold-to-cold guys? They’re fine.
- The warm-to-warm guys? Fine.
It’s specifically the transition that kills them. Their hands haven’t adjusted to the conditions yet, and the results show it immediately — fewer strikeouts, more hard contact, more homers.
That’s what happened last night, April 13th. A bunch of pitchers who’d been pitching in 50s-60s weather suddenly got 70s+, and the ball was flying like July.
Turbo slates are back tonight, so 5 games are wiped off the main slate.
- Diamondbacks at Orioles: Dangerous spot for Rogers
- Cubs at Phillies
- Giants at Reds (Boooo! This is the game I wanted): Like this game a good amount
- Royals at Tigers
- Nationals at Pirates: Using the new theory above, this game should have explosions early. Keller gets rocked.
WEATHER
- Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox: Sorry Noah Schultz, but we have tornado warnings for your debut today.
- Cleveland at St. Louis: Chance of pop-up storm. I don’t see anyone using the pitchers in this game so no impact there.
JACOB MISIOROWSKI (DK: $9000, FD: $9400)
The Jays have never seen Misiorowski which has been a benefit for him in his young career. The way he should be able to jump on them with the velocity in a controlled environment tonight is a strong reason to back him as the SP1.
MICHAEL KING (DK: $7900, FD: $8700)
Seattle is going on the road, which normally favors their hitters, but I think adjusting from facing a low velocity and terrible pitching staff in Houston and now facing a good pitching staff is the bigger concern.
King needs to control his walks, which have been too high in 2 of his 3 starts thus far and can be a problem vs lefties (Donovan, Raleigh, Naylor, Raley come to mind) but the overall structure of what he should be able to do here is favorable to him being a viable SP2.
MACKENZIE GORE (DK: $8600)
I know that Gore is going outdoors after two indoors starts and into a tough pitchers park – but the upside of the % of strikeouts that the Athletics should produce is enough to back him with confidence.
MARLINS
Reynaldo Lopez should be forced to miss a start, sorry. I know he was the one who got charged, but you cannot pretend like he actually served a suspension here.
Anyways, he is due to get rocked. The Marlins top of their lineup is sneaky, hits well in Atlanta & is my favorite out of nowhere stack to drop an 8+ spot tonight.
- Jakob Marsee
- Agustin Ramirez
- Owen Cassie
GUARDIANS vs CARDINALS
Best overall game for hitting condition boosts tonight. There is a threat of some storms here, but both teams should Ambush the opposing SP.
The Cardinals lineup is better vs RHP at the moment, so they need to get on Cantillo early to get into some Guardians bullpen action.
- Chase DeLauter
- Jose Ramirez
- Jordan Walker – How is he still only $4,000?
RED SOX
Couple factors in play here. We have reverse blowout theory (when one team gets blown out, they come back the next night and return the favor), and we have Mick Abel going from cold to warm while being a heavy fastball pitcher. The bad grip theory should impact him even though it’s not insanely warm in Minnesota, it’s enough to take a shot here.
- Roman Anthony
- Jarren Duran
- Willson Contreras
- Caleb Durbin
ROCKIES
They meet again and Houston is not going to suddenly fix their pitching just because they are at home. You might also be shocked to know that the Rockies are in the top 5 in bullpen average velocity. Gimme the Rocks side for some value.
- Hunter Goodman
- Brenton Doyle
CATCHER
- Agustin Ramirez
- Ivan Herrera
FIRST BASE
- Kyle Manzardo
- Liam Hicks
- Willson Contreras
SECOND BASE
- Xavier Edwards
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – DK is quick to give him 2B eligibility. Wow.
- Chase Meidroth
THIRD BASE
- Jose Ramirez
- Yandy Diaz
- Caleb Durbin
SHORTSTOP
- Trevor Story
- Zach Neto
- Otto Lopez
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Roman Anthony
- Jordan Walker
- Jakob Marsee
- Chase DeLauter
OUTFIELD – Tier II
- Cam Smith
- Owen Caissie
- Jarren Duran
- Matt Wallner
- Chase DeLauter – OF – Cleveland Guardians – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Willson Contreras – 1B – Red Sox
- Agustin Ramirez – C – Marlins
- Trevor Story – SS – Red Sox
- Jakob Marsee – OF – Marlins
- Yandy Diaz – 3B – Rays
- Fernando Tatis Jr – 2B – Padres
- Cam Smith – OF – Astros
- BONUS …. Matt Wallner – OF – Twins
BETTING CARD
- Cleveland/St. Louis YRFI
- Marlins/Braves OVER 8.5
- Mariners/Padres NRFI