Fourteen new series kick off today and the one that started new last night (Baltimore at Cleveland) was a tone setter for what the weekend projects in the MAJORITY of the series. Not all, just the majority. That would be lower scoring with pitching doing better than you expect — however this is not to say that there aren’t some very favorable hitter spots to look at. Basically this weekends Mike Trout’s of the world (who, uh, is back home tomorrow night for those keeping score at home). BTW. Keep score at the bar. It’s way cooler. Chicks dig it.
Today is most definitely a good Friday setup with an afternoon Wrigley game and then some early Turbo action (should be 7pm games, but we will live with the new era).
WE START AT …. 1060 WEST ADDISON
METS at CUBS: Expect people to tout the overs here, the rain could be pushing into the game at some point but it should get played. It is a small sample size but Francisco Alvarez has destroyed Wrigley Field, and this is one of those spots where the entire franchise seems to hit well in that stadium. Certain teams (like the Marlins going into Philly) just have their way in certain spots for whatever reason – no matter who is on the team. Maybe they really like the coffee? Maybe they’re secretly telling us that Chicago Pizza is better than NY Pizza? Who knows. But I love the Mets all weekend. Ride their team totals and ride the Francisco’s.
WE GO TO, THE HOUSE THAT RYAN BRAUN BUILT
Braves at Phillies: No player has tormented the CBP like Ryan Braun did. Over his career while coming in from the NL Central once a year, Braun went in to Philly 37 times, carried a .417/.471/.795 slash line with 11 doubles, 2 triples, 14 home runs and 45 RBI. I don’t think that Bryson Stott has accumulated that many extra base hits in his entire time as a Phillie. I say all this because there’s a new sheriff in town. For a moment it looked like Juan Soto was going to take over as the Mayor of Philadelphia – but no, we have Matt Olson with FIFTEEN home runs in 32 games at the Bank. He doesn’t have the full on base line that Braun has, but Olson fucking dominates here. Austin Riley finally got going the other night and has also hit well in CBP, as too has Michael Harris II. The Mascot Bowl begins tonight with Martin Perez against Taijuan Walker. Oh the joys of the home run props in this series.
THE REST OF THE TURBO SLATE
Giants at Nationals: I cannot think of Giants and Nationals and not think of their playoff series about 12-15 years ago. When the Nationals first got good after they came back as a new DC franchise. And that series was always low scoring and quiet. Hello Logan Webb, who has been living off nibbling his whole career and now is getting cursed by the ABS system. Webb could struggle here to get whiffs, but I think he gets through this without a ton of damage. For the Giants, I just cannot get on board with the offense entirely until they really get going. It feels like a patchwork setup right now and I’m out on them. (*ahem*, this is your signal to go fucking bet the Giants to sweep *ahem*)
Rays at Pirates: Hey Rays, that’s Brandon Lowe over there. Yeah, remember him? Good luck!!
Orioles at Guardians: The LiC (Lefties in Cleveland) for Henderson, Beavers and Cowser needs to happen and it needs to happen now. Tanner Bibee’s hard hit rates are too high for him to have given up just 1 HR in three starts. His last one he got rocked as he was the first to go through the temperature change wringer for pitchers. We are back down below 70 degrees tonight to start off so he should settle in, but if one of the Orioles lefties doesn’t homer off him then I would be absolutely shocked. Gunnar is the most likely candidate.
WEATHER
All clear.
There will be some rumblings about it cooling down in certain spots and this includes the Dodgers going into Coors where snow is a little bit in the forecast.
Roof open but only low 80’s in Chase Field
Where it is getting sneaky warm …
White Sox at Athletics: Sacramento was known for being a hitters paradise during the summer a year ago, and we will not have the crazy strong winds blowing in that they had the last couple of days. It’s warming up here, and I’ll just leave it at that before we get to the stacks section.
JACOB DEGROM (DK: $9200)
Fantastic pitching matchup between deGrom and Gilbert. The latter of which just has to navigate around Corey Seager and at $9500 is easily a SP2 and game stack it for the marbles option as well. You can point to them babying deGrom or the HR he is giving up each game as a negative. I don’t. I think it’s him building up for one of those elite deGrom starts & the Mariners going from sunny PETCO back to dark Seattle is a huge downgrade for their vision. Expect that no-hitter alert to come in around 11pm EST tonight.
TYLER GLASNOW (DK: $8900)
If Glasnow as at home he would be 11k. On the road in Coors he is cheap. This is a massive mistake. Colorado is winning games because they’re getting to play Houston and because they quietly have assembled some talent in their bullpen. The offense is still a two man show on it’s best days. Even if Glasnow does not go beyond 85 pitches (its a Coors and weather thing) I think he has to be in the top plays at this price knowing the entire field likely has him too.
So, yes, there will be an analyst or tout who says that hey, why take the chalk guy that might have a ceiling? Well, the floor is why. He’s a 20 point floor today IMO.
OTHER SP NOTES
- Jose Soriano is pitching elite baseball right now – but is coming off a 106 pitch, 10 strikeout game. The drop off is going to be there & this is a much tougher lineup now that Tatis and Sheets are hitting well. Tatis could have a 3 homer game soon
- Cam Schlittler is also pitching very well & should be fine at $8500. I like Glasnow more and I think the Royals will show this weekend that their issues are mental and the breakthrough yesterday will lead to more runs. All their underlying metrics are good in terms of contact and hit rates. It’s just the timing and getting the hits with men on base.
- If you want my #3 SP – it’s Logan Gilbert
- If you want a cheap SP sleeper – it’s Michael Wacha
I think this is a classic one off or 2 man mini stack combo weekend. But if you wanted me to pick a spot or two that go off tonight, these are how I rank them
CARDS / ASTROS
Interleague = Check. Horrible Bullpens = Check. Un proven starters = Check. Should be a 9-7 final score.
- Jose Altuve
- Jordan Walker
WHITE SOX / A’S
I mentioned good park and weather improving here. White Sox cannot hit consistently to save their lives, but Aaron Civale is not a whiff guy so putting the ball in play is favorable combined with the park elements.
- Munetaka Murakami
- Jacob Wilson
JAYS / D’BACKS
Speaking of Parks. Toronto is really banged up on offense, but remember that Arizona has NO lefty pitchers in their pen. This is the time for Lukes, Varsho, Sanchez, Gimenez to shine.
- Daulton Varsho
- Vlad Guerrero
- Ketel Marte
SLEEPER TEAMS
REDS: They are a primary fastball hunting team and get Joe Ryan a primary fastball guy. Enough chance that they do some damage to ruin some Joe Ryan lineups out there. TJ Friedl is your sleeper this weekend.
TIGERS: Ranger Suarez had his one start. Now we go back to beating him up.
CATCHER
- Salvador Perez
- Ivan Herrera
FIRST BASE
Deep and balanced spot today.
- Munetaka Murakami
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Sal Stewart
- Nick Kurtz
SECOND BASE
If tonight is not National second baseman night, then I don’t think they’ll ever have a national second baseman night.
- Jose Altuve
- Michael Massey
- Ketel Marte
- Gleyber Torres
THIRD BASE
- Isaac Paredes
- Nolan Arenado
- Eugenio Suarez
- Max Muncy (LAD)
SHORTSTOP
Javy … Baez???
- Javy Baez
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Elly De La Cruz
- Jacob Wilson
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Daulton Varsho
- Nathan Lukes
- TJ Friedl
- Byron Buxton
OUTFIELD – Tier II
- Jac Cags
- Yordan Alvarez
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Jordan Walker
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Daulton Varsho – OF – Toronto Blue Jays – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Munataka Murakami – 1B – Chicago White Sox
- Jose Altuve – 2B – Houston Astros
- Javy Baez – SS – Detroit Tigers
- Salvador Perez – C – Kansas City Royals
- Yordan Alvarez – OF – Houston Astros
- TJ Friedl – OF – Cincinnati Reds
- Nolan Arenado – 3B – Arizona Diamondbacks
- BONUS … Jac Caglianone – OF – Kansas City Royals
BETTING CARD
- KC Royals ML +159
- DET Tigers ML +104
- Cardinals/Astros OVER 8.5
- Rangers/Mariners UNDER 6.5
- Jays/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5