TONIGHTS SLATE
Before you go any further in this article today, please be aware that I think I am going to wind up sounding completely contrarian to the natural instinct on tonight’s slate and I have a few things that I just cannot get past my gut feeling on. So let’s go ahead and summarize it for you…
Monday begins with an 8 game slate that locks at 6:40 PM and has three games in that early 6pm/Turbo window. Of the eight games going tonight it includes a wrap-around Monday night game between the Dodgers & Rockies (absolutely retarded scheduling IMO) and then 7 new series — including BOTH Sunday Night Baseball teams playing on the road today.
Weather is not much of a factor anywhere. It’s cool, comfortable and all games will play.
The best pitchers though are in spots where I think there’s going to be offense tonight. The worst pitchers are going to be okay but have one or two spots they cannot get around.
It’s a weird Monday.
Last Monday was weird with all the guys hitting 2 homers.
So, you know what, I think tonight is your contrarian night where the chalk flops massively.
Enjoy.
While I like contrarian tonight, I do want to point out that Cease, Detmers, Lugo or even Bradish can all go for 20 FPTS on any given day. But I only expect one of them at best to do that today — so choose wisely.
JAKE IRVIN (DK: $6100, FD: $7100)
Right now Matt Olson cannot hit a beach ball to save his life. So much for crowning him the new Mr. Philadelphia after that horrific weekend he just displayed. For all the ‘weather’ folks hyping up the warm weather lets talk about how its now chilly in DC here too and Jake Irvin is doing a good job limiting HR this year as well. Do not expect one of those 7 homer Atlanta Brave games, in fact, expect 7 strikeouts for Irvin tonight.
I also think Bryce Elder has an okay start — but I prefer Irvin by a wide margin.
DYLAN CEASE (DK: $9800, FD: $10,400)
Alright, I guess I will go with one chalky pitcher tonight. I want him to get beat up, but the Angels are terrible against sliders and swing too much for him not to get a bunch of whiffs and reach 7 strikeouts. With the limited upside plays today, I think we take this gamble.
COLIN REA (DK: $6800, FD: $7000)
This is taking advantage of the Phillies coming in off the Sunday Night game & being mostly cold offensively before they awaken in better Wrigley conditions tomorrow. Rea is not a length guy, so you aren’t getting any upside here pairing him with someone like Irvin – but a 15-18 point outing for $6800 is more than good to pass the test.
RAYS
Nobody will mention this, but the lighting down in Tampa is greatly improved this season and after always being a good pitchers park the environment changing to help the hitters is something to actually look into further. Rhett Lowder struggles to miss bats & the Rays being such a good small ball team should make this a nightmare game for him. The main risk here is that if they do not get to Rhett Lowder early then they’re dead because the Reds bullpen is arguably the best in Baseball right now.
- Chandler Simpson
- Junior Caminero
THE MARLINS
Speaking of not missing bats, Michael McGreevy might not walk anyone, but he should give up a 1-1 Change Up to Kyle Stowers that lands out in the RF bleachers. He’s good for 1 if not 2 homers (McGreevy that is). The Marlins are your sneaky stack today folks.
- Kyle Stowers: He did get hit by a Misorowski fastball yesterday but I expect him to get back in there again today after being out forever.
- Agustin Ramirez
ORIOLES / ROYALS
Pete Alonso is gonna put a ball into the fountains. Salvador Perez is going to get Matt Quatraro fired and Bobby Witt is ready to start his MVP campaign this week. This game is your pay up pivot off Coors. It will be < 2% owned.
- Pete Alonso
- Bobby Witt Jr
Hitters that are likely going to pop on everyone’s “data” models tonight: Ohtani, Muncy, Olson, Happ, Wood, Raley
CATCHER
- Agustin Ramirez
- Salvador Perez
- Shea Bangeliers
FIRST BASE
- Pete Alonso
- Josh Naylor
- Jonathan Aranda
SECOND BASE
- Sal Stewart: Him being 2B eligible is perfect tonight.
- Xavier Edwards
- Miguel Rojas
THIRD BASE
- Junior Caminero
- Alex Bregman
- Brendan Donovan
SHORTSTOP
- Bobby Witt Jr
- Gunnar Henderson
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Kyle Stowers
- Chandler Simpson
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Brenton Doyle
OUTFIELD – Tier II
- Cedric Mullins
- Jac Caglianone
- Eloy Jimenez
- Luke Raley
- Pete Alonso – 1B – Orioles – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Bobby Witt Jr – SS – Royals
- Kyle Stowers – OF – Marlins
- Eloy Jimenez – OF – Blue Jays
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Dodgers
- Agustin Ramirez – C – Marlins
- Junior Caminero – 3B – Rays
- Sal Stewart – 2B – Reds
- BONUS …. Josh Naylor – 1B – Seattle Mariners
BETS
- Orioles / Royals OVER 9
- Cardinals / Marlins OVER 8.5
- Braves / Nationals UNDER 8