Programming note – The Sunday article this weekend will either be very light or none at all. I think I will get one out ahead of time, but Sunday is likely a day off for me.
Earlier this week we saw a night or two when it felt like every ‘obvious’ pick across data models was homering. It wasn’t teams going off as much as it was individual players doing well. There’s also been some secondary players who have been hot (oddly enough, most of them are Asians, but I have no real theory or analysis behind that). Soon we’re gonna see that star hitter go absolutely nuclear as well, but not until May.
Is this a high scoring weekend? Probably not. But every series tonight is a new one and some random ones as well. I expect we see a random type setup tonight where you’re building around one team and then a bunch of one offs outside of that.
WEATHER
All clear, nothing note worthy.
PAUL SKENES (DK: $10,000, FD: $10,600)
Overall in his short career Skenes has had a few more hiccups against the Brewers than he has the other NL Central teams, but many guys who have hit him are gone & he got his hiccup game out of the way on Opening Day. To expect less than 6 innings and 8 strikeouts is foolish IMO
FREDDY PERALTA (DK: $8800, FD: $8600)
The Rockies are good, respectable, but it’s mostly still their pitching which is carrying them back to being a normal franchise. The lineup still lacks that one key threat in the order & if the pitcher is on, they won’t score much. We’re getting Peralta at a little bit of a discount from where his ceiling is. So we’ll take it.
BRAYAN BELLO (DK: $6600)
Really didn’t want to go here, but also felt I should make one pick for a cheap arm since there are 14 games tonight.
…
…
Oh, you wanted some analysis as to why? Look, he’s not a good pitcher, so there’s no smoke being blown here that he has suddenly figured it out, but the concern has always been walks. Almost 12% to LHB, which Baltimore is light on right now and Gunnar being the main lefty is a breaking pitch banger — not Bello’s game. I’d expect Bello to get through the first time on the Orioles lineup without much damage. I think the game is under & so if you want 14-15 FPTS out of nowhere, here’s your cheap option.
DONT MIND, BUT WONT USE …
- Emmet Sheehan: “The Cubs Bats Are On Fire” …. No, they just played the Phillies. Although Suzuki keeping his streak going this weekend feels very probable. Sheehan would be a top SP2 if he was a little cheaper, but Peralta’s got a far riskier spot.
- Severino & Eovaldi: Neither will be clean, neither will be bad.
- Michael Lorenzen: Eh. Why. First sign of trouble they’ll go to their pen.
GUARDIANS
Something about this team going into Canada — most likely the fact that they get indoor temps instead of their cold temps in Cleveland. Ramirez, Manzardo, Kwan, DeLauter all should hit Max & we have Bo Naylor weekend too.
- Jose Ramirez
- Kyle Manzardo
- Bo Naylor
MARINERS
Getting away from Seattle is always good for this offense. Excluding Raleigh, the Crawford-Julio-Naylor-Arozarena stack is a great price & drawing a low whiff matchup against Pallante. Weather is nice here and two teams who have no clue each other exists should lead to a high scoring series.
- Randy Arozarena
- Julio Rodriguez
- Josh Naylor
PHILS vs BRAVES
There is runs in this game. The Atlanta pitching staff is trending back towards the mean, and both teams are seeing each other for the second time in a week. Advantage to the Braves getting a glimpse at Painter, but I kinda like a talented rookie pitcher going on the road after they’ve made a few starts — this is where Painter settles in to becoming an every 5 day guy. But a lead off homer to Acuna or maybe bottom 2nd lead off to Riley is inevitable.
Philly becomes the interesting side though, again, you have to nail the cheap guys here like Marsh or Bohm or Stott. Harper/Schwarber. That’s great, Harper maybe a nice anytime HR play, but you gotta nail the cheap guys and the must have stud. Maybe Trea & Adolis? Sorry, I’m bouncing around on this one, but this game (and the series) has some life to it. Philly isn’t going to go away quietly.
- Bryson Stott
- Trea Turner
- Austin Riley
SLEEPER TEAMS
RAYS: Welcoming back Taj Bradley into Tampa, he might need sun glasses to handle the brightness of the stadium now.
OTHER THOUGHTS
DODGERS: Lets talk about the Cubs/Dodgers which is not on FanDuel main slate for some horrific reason. But on DraftKings specifically we just add up a few things here. L.A. has been quiet lately, they’re back home, on a Friday, against Taillon. It all adds up for a 4 HR game. Ohtani/Tucker/Freeman are the no brainer options with Teoscar/Pages secondary. They’re all extremely expensive and all at deep positions. So you aren’t getting position value, nor are you getting salary value and you aren’t likely to see them be a stack that wins tournaments. With 14 games. Just fade it in DFS.
Red Sox vs Orioles: I cannot stomach much in this game. It’s going to go under.
CATCHER
Deep catcher slate for a Friday night.
- Bo Naylor: He’s from Canada. Which means he is Canadian. They’re in Toronto. Which is in Canada. It’s Max Scherzer. Just trust me here.
- Shea Banagaliers: Rakes in Texas,
- Salvador Perez
FIRST BASE
- Kyle Manzardo
- Luis Garcia Jr.: Same game as likely ‘hyped’ Murakami, but I think Mikolas walks Munetaka every time. Obviously nothing against Murakami.
- Freddie Freeman
- Josh Naylor
SECOND BASE
This is the ultimate spinning wheel spot. Sure, Bryson Stott – go right ahead. I’d rather take a 3 HR game from someone at third base than spend money here, so you should just randomly spin the wheel and take a cheap option.
In fact, just hand your phone to the person sitting next to you. Ask them to pick one of the names on the list and then move on.
THIRD BASE
For all the stench that is 2B, the hot corner makes up for it.
- Jose Ramirez: Ole Bubba has been banged up the last two seasons when Cleveland ventures over the lake into Canada, but from 2021-2023 he had 12 hits, of which 5 were HR in his annual trips north of the border.
- Junior Caminero
- Austin Riley
- Ryan McMahon
SHORTSTOP
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Trea Turner
- Colson Montgomery
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Bryan Reynolds: Loves Milwaukee Pitching
- Steven Kwan
- Jorge Soler
- Randy Arozarena
OUTFIELD – TIER II
- Lane Thomas, Starling Marte or Isaac Collins … One of these guys is homering. I think Starling is the play.
- Marcell Ozuna
- Jarren Duran
- Sam Antonacci
- Chase DeLauter
- Bobby Witt Jr – SS – Kansas City Royals – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Bryan Reynolds – OF – Pirates
- Bo Naylor – C – Guardians
- Kyle Manzardo – 1B – Guardians
- Austin Riley – 3B – Braves
- Randy Arozarena – OF – Mariners
- Bryson Stott – 2B – Phillies
- Starling Marte – OF – Royals
- BONUS ……………… Kyle Tucker – OF – Dodgers
BETS
TOTALS:
- Mariners/Cardinals OVER 7.5
- Red Sox/Orioles UNDER 9
- Nationals/White Sox OVER 9
- Angels/Royals OVER 8.5
SIDES:
- Guardians ML (-131)
- Rays ML (-126)
- Pirates ML (-136)