The Dongers Club – 4/24

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Programming note – The Sunday article this weekend will either be very light or none at all.  I think I will get one out ahead of time, but Sunday is likely a day off for me. Earlier this week we saw a night or two when it felt like every ‘obvious’ pick across data models was homering.  It wasn’t teams going off as much as it was individual players doing well.  There’s also been some secondary players who have been hot (oddly enough, most of them are Asians, but I have no real theory or analysis behind that).  Soon we’re gonna see that star hitter go absolutely nuclear as well, but not until May. Is this a high scoring weekend?  Probably not.  But every series tonight is a new one and some random ones as well.  I expect we see a random type setup tonight where you’re building around one team and then a bunch of one offs outside of that.   WEATHER All clear, nothing note worthy.   PAUL SKENES (DK: $10,000, FD: $10,600) Overall in his short career Skenes has had a few more hiccups against the Brewers than he has the other NL Central teams, but many guys who have hit him are gone & he got his hiccup game out of the way on Opening Day.  To expect less than 6 innings and 8 strikeouts is foolish IMO FREDDY PERALTA (DK: $8800, FD: $8600) The Rockies are good, respectable, but it’s mostly still their pitching which is carrying them back to being a normal franchise.  The lineup still lacks that one key threat in the order & if the pitcher is on, they won’t score much.  We’re getting Peralta at a little bit of a discount from where his ceiling is.  So we’ll take it. BRAYAN BELLO (DK: $6600) Really didn’t want to go here, but also felt I should make one pick for a cheap arm since there are 14 games tonight. … … Oh, you wanted some analysis as to why?  Look, he’s not a good pitcher, so there’s no smoke being blown here that he has suddenly figured it out, but the concern has always been walks.  Almost 12% to LHB, which Baltimore is light on right now and Gunnar being the main lefty is a breaking pitch banger — not Bello’s game.  I’d expect Bello to get through the first time on…...

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