There is a heavy Turbo/6PM slate and I hate it because we drop down to a 9 game MAIN slate with lots of good action in the Turbo window. Thus we miss out on me being able to tout Logan Gilbert and Paul Skenes. I know you are all so greatly disappointed…
TURBO SLATE PICKS
SP Rankings
- Max Meyer
- Payton Tolle / Nick Martinez
- Eric Lauer
Offense/Stacks Rankings
- Yankees (Lefties)
- Orioles/Mariners
- Dodgers (Lefties)
- Tigers
MAIN SLATE WEATHER
All clear of PPD risk.
From a ballpark/weather standpoint you have very warm and wind out to RF in Coors to go along with another Vegas game and extreme heat in Kauffman Stadium.
Good night to consider two lineups – which is partially driven by the hitting chalk but also because I think you take a gamble big time on SP2 options today. For the aces, these are the winners…
Chase Burns (DK: $10,500) – Lineup #1
Now this is a massive arm-talent shift for the Padres to have to swap from Abbott to the hard-throwing RH Burns. San Diego is 23rd in SLG against RH sliders (and 27th in wOBA against them) while sitting dead last in the majors in SLG vs RHP (.275). They’ve got no ability to turn on anything with power, and add in Burns’ arm (our model has him at a 25.7% strikeout rate, projecting ~9 K) and we’ve got an easy 25+ spot.
Zack Wheeler (DK: $10,700) – Lineup #2
Yeah, this is a risky pitching slate today. I’m once again going to pick on Toronto and hope the Phillies pitchers can deliver at a high price. Sánchez got there with the whiffs last night & Wheeler should tonight as well. 5 HR in his last two games is a real concern, so don’t expect him to be perfect – we need him to not walk guys and then give up 2-run bombs. Wheeler is my pivot off Burns if you slide down for a second lineup.
SP2: THIS IS A JOSE URENA SLATE!!!!!!
For those who do not know, a time long long long ago, I won a $1500 ticket on FanDuel to one of their big contests. Well, my dumb ass said, lets get sneaky on this random Tuesday slate with lots of offense projected and take this Jose Urena fella, he looks like he could have some talent. No chance the Phillies beat him up …… He got his ass whooped, including a beat down from Tommy Joseph. Yes. Tommy Joseph. Remember that guy? Anyways. I’m back once again to take a risk on SP2 today – and I think you should too!
- Walbert Urena (DK: $7,800) … If you didn’t see this coming then you clearly do not know my sense of humor. (For the record, the model also doesn’t totally hate him: 55.5 rating, 23.2 K%, 13.3 projection – though he’s staring down a lively Houston lineup with change up masher Yordan)
- Lucas Giolito (DK: $7,000) … OK with pairing him with Burns, because if the game is wrong, then well, you just turn it off. Same game as Burns, and Giolito’s .303 xwOBA is actually the best mark of any starter on the slate.
CUBS
This game is going to be more of the 15-14 game today than the Vegas one. If ever there was a chance to get Coors lower owned than it should be, tonight is the night. Sugano will not make it out of the first inning…
- Michael Busch
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Ian Happ
- Seiya Suzuki
ATHLETICS
The main advantage on the Vegas hitters is that Gasser is NOT a Ground Ball guy, while J.T. Ginn is much more likely to keep it down and in the yard. Yelich and Turang are nice one offs for Milwaukee, but the A’s are the deeper spot
- Nick Kurtz
- Colby Thomas
- Brent Rooker
NATIONALS
Adrian Houser is known for puking on the mound and being very up and down. He is going back into a down night, tonight.
- CJ Abrams
- James Wood
- Keibert Ruiz
OTHER GOOD HITTING SPOTS
- Rangers: Pederson, Jung, Nimmo, Langford
- Braves: Olson, Albies, Harris
CATCHER
- Moises Ballesteros
- Jonah Heim
- William Contreras
FIRST BASE
- Michael Busch
- Matt Olson – Hits well in Chicago, but this game terrifies me all around.
- Jake Burger
SECOND BASE
- Nico Hoerner
- JJ Wetherholt
- Bryson Stott
THIRD BASE
- Josh Jung – Has been on a heater lately, logical to keep it going tonight
- Brett Baty
- Curtis Mead
SHORTSTOP
- CJ Abrams
- Ezequiel Tovar
- Corey Seager
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Ian Happ
- Seiya Suzuki
- Christian Yelich
OUTFIELD – Tier II
- Brent Rooker
- James Wood
- Lars Nootbar
- Joc Pederson
- Michael Busch – 1B – Chicago Cubs – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Seiya Suzuki – OF – Cubs
- Christian Yelich – OF – Brewers
- Brent Rooker – OF – Athletics
- Ezequiel Tovar – SS – Rockies
- Brett Baty – 3B – Mets
- Nico Hoerner – 2B – Cubs
- Moises Ballesteros – C – Cubs
- BONUS …. Matt Olson – 1B – Braves
BETS
- Cubs/Rockies OVER 12.5
- Cardinals/Mets OVER 8
- Rangers ML
- Nationals ML
- Reds / Padres UNDER 7.5