Seven games under the lights and only one of them I really care about. Texas is laying 30.5, Notre Dame 29.5, Oklahoma 21.5, and BYU is a 17.5-point road favorite at Colorado State … so the Night slate comes down to three one-score games and one of them has Lane Kiffin walking back into Oxford wearing purple.
Build around LSU/Ole Miss, get cheap Virginia Tech exposure, and lock in the BYU running back everybody is going to have. Lets go.
Lets get the heavy favorites out of the way first:
- Texas: Smothers and Wingo, sure. Arch at 37.6% owned in a 30.5-point spread where he’s probably watching the 4th quarter from the sideline? No, thanks.
- Notre Dame: Faison only.
- Oklahoma: No, thanks.
LSU at Ole Miss (OU: 58.5, LSU -3)
Kiffin goes back to Oxford to face the quarterback he left behind, and if you don’t think Trinidad Chambliss has had this one circled since the day that news broke then I don’t know what to tell you. It’s the highest total on the slate that isn’t a 30-point blowout, LSU is running 90 plays a game in Kiffin’s up-tempo offense, and Ole Miss’ secondary has been the worst unit on their team through two weeks.
LSU’s pass rush is legit, which is exactly why I want the QB with the legs. I’m not forcing $7500 for Kewan Lacy into a front that’s allowed 36 rushing yards in two games, so the Ole Miss side of this stack is through the air.
- Trinidad Chambliss (QB – Ole Miss)
- Deuce Alexander (WR – Ole Miss)
- Trey’Dez Green (TE – LSU)
- Winston Watkins Jr. (WR – LSU)
Virginia Tech at Maryland (OU: 53.5, Virginia Tech -3)
James Franklin brought half of Penn State with him to Blacksburg and it’s working: Grunkemeyer is 48 of 62 for 551 yards through two games throwing to his old Penn State tight end. Both teams are running 78-79 plays a game after sitting around 65 last year, and Maryland lost their best pass rusher for the season in August. The part I love is that the Hokies’ quarterback is at 1.1% ownership while Maryland’s slot guy is at 29.6%. Take the Hokies and use the Terps as the bring-back.
- Ethan Grunkemeyer (QB – Virginia Tech)
- Luke Reynolds (TE – Virginia Tech)
- Que’Sean Brown (WR – Virginia Tech)
- Malik Washington (QB – Maryland)
- Chris Durr Jr. (WR – Maryland)
Trinidad Chambliss ($6900 – Ole Miss)
Home QB, statement game, and the last time he saw a real opponent he put up 336 passing yards and a rushing TD for 38.4 DK points against Louisville. At $6900 and 17.6% owned he’s the cheapest way into the best game on the slate. Take it.
THE REST OF THE QB ROOM
Bear Bachmeier ($7700 – BYU)
Six TDs, zero picks, a rushing TD in both games, and 30.4 and 28.9 DK points. Colorado State just gave up 442 yards to an FCS team. Safe as it gets at 20% owned.
Ethan Grunkemeyer ($7300 – Virginia Tech)
77% completions, 31 of 42 for 327 against ODU last week, and nobody is on him. 1.1% projected ownership. Tournament QB of the night.
Hauss Hejny ($6700 – Colorado State)
Nine TD passes in two games and 45.5 DK points last week. A 17.5-point home dog throws the ball all night, and BYU is missing their starting strong safety and a linebacker. 6% owned.
LJ Martin ($6500 – BYU)
Last week I said he’d get his 54 yards in the first half; he ran 20 times for 98. Now the backup is out and he gets a Colorado State run defense giving up 204.9 yards per game, 127th in the country. 59% owned. He is the chalk and you eat it.
Jadan Baugh ($9100 – Florida)
28 carries, 296 yards and 5 TDs. Auburn’s run defense is 10th in the country at 99.3 yards per game, so this is the real test, but the volume is locked and he’s 19.3% owned. Pay up in GPP.
Hollywood Smothers ($8100 – Texas)
Raleek Brown is $2600 cheaper and nearly double the ownership (21.2% to 11.2%). I’ll take the guy who just won Player of the Week against Ohio State.
Aneyas Williams ($6200 – Notre Dame)
50.8% owned off a 20-90-2 week, but he followed it with 9 carries for 29 and the Irish are missing four of their top-10 offensive linemen. Chalk in cash, I’m under the field in GPP.
VALUE
Harry Dalton III ($5100 – Maryland)
Marcellous Hawkins ($4900 – Virginia Tech)
Trey’Dez Green ($5500 – LSU)
Prime time touchdown machine, who gets one tonight for sure. A 6’7″ tight end at a WR price, 6 for 104 and a TD last week, and he’s going at the worst unit on Ole Miss’ roster. The bring-back.
Deuce Alexander ($5800 – Ole Miss)
5 for 159 and two scores in the only real game Ole Miss has played. He’s Chambliss’ guy, 17.1% owned. Cash anchor.
Luke Reynolds ($4600 – Virginia Tech) & Que’Sean Brown ($4800 – Virginia Tech)
Reynolds went 8-108-2 against ODU catching passes from his Penn State QB; Brown went 6-109-1 in Week 1. With three Hokie receivers questionable, these two eat. Play both with Grunkemeyer.
Vernell Brown III ($6000 – Florida)
9 catches, 160 yards, 2 receiving TDs and two punt-return touchdowns through two games. Florida’s top receiver is a game-time call, and if he sits Brown’s ceiling goes up again. 6.6% owned.
HONORABLE MENTION
- Ryan Wingo ($7100 – Texas): 11 catches, 143 yards, 2 TDs, at 9.7%.
- Jordan Faison ($5700 – Notre Dame)
- Legend Glasker ($5000 – BYU): Two TDs in Week 1 and the 61-yarder last week. 4.4% owned.
DEEPEST POSITION FOR S-FLEX
QB. Chambliss at $6900, Hejny at $6700 and Grunkemeyer at 1.1% all make two-QB builds easy once you’ve got Martin at $6500 and the cheap Virginia Tech pass catchers.
BEST VALUE POSITION
Wide Receiver
CORE PLAYS
QB – Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss)
RB – LJ Martin (BYU)
WR – Deuce Alexander (Ole Miss)
WR – Luke Reynolds (Virginia Tech)
TOP STACKS
LSU/Ole Miss: Chambliss + Alexander with Trey’Dez Green coming back
Virginia Tech: Grunkemeyer + Reynolds + Que’Sean Brown
TAILGATE PLAY OF THE DAY
Ethan Grunkemeyer – QB – Virginia Tech
TOP BETS
- Ole Miss +3: Early-season home dogs went 18-11 ATS in our 2025 backtest, and this one gets its old head coach coming back to town with the whole stadium waiting on him. I’ll take the QB and the crowd and the points.
- LSU/Ole Miss OVER 58.5
- BYU -17.5
Live Bets to watch for
- Ole Miss ML: If LSU scores first and Oxford goes quiet, that’s when you grab the home team.