California at Syracuse (OU: 56.5, Syracuse -3.5)
My top team total over this year is Syracuse and the big game on their schedule which I felt they would snag is this one. They get California coming across the country for an in and out & in my mind Syracuse is more in desperation mode to save coaching staff jobs given that Cal just changed coaches. Load up on Syracuse’s passing game with the Cal Golden bears going through Mohammed for their offense
- Steve Angeli (QB – Syracuse)
- Umari Hatcher (WR – Syracuse)
- Cole Weaver (WR – Syracuse)
- Adam Mohammed (RB – California)
- Ian Strong (WR – California)
Katin Houser ($7400 – Illinois)
Houser went 13 of 17 for 182 yards and 3 TDs plus a rushing TD against UAB. He comes into Week 2 against a Duke secondary built entirely from portal transfers playing their second game together; they held Tulane to 3 points in Week 1 but Tulane is not Illinois. The matchup grade is the best available for any quarterback on the slate. 5.9% projected ownership in a home game where Illinois is favored by 5.5.
THE REST OF THE QB ROOM
Mason Heintschel ($7600 – Pittsburgh)
Thirty-one of 41 for 453 yards and seven touchdowns against Miami (Ohio) in Week 1, the first quarterback to do that since Joe Burrow in 2019. UCF ranked 110th in FBS in passing yards allowed last year and their 2026 secondary has no returning starter. He is at home, in a 56.5-total game, against a coverage unit that has not played a real opponent together. At 24 percent projected ownership, he is chalk in cash. He is the chalk.
Kamario Taylor ($8300 – Mississippi State)
The highest-projected quarterback on the slate and 11.2 percent owned on the road. Taylor went 22 of 34 for 354 yards and 4 TDs plus 59 rushing yards and a rushing TD in Week 1 against Louisiana-Monroe. He is in a near pick-em at Minnesota, whose secondary is missing two starters entering Week 2. The legs floor him in any game script. If Minnesota’s front seven creates pressure, he scrambles; the rushing yards and TD upside are always live.
LJ Martin (BYU – $6500)
The joys of CFB DFS where that chalk stud RB is going to be 50% owned and dominate. This week we get it again and it’s in the form of LJ Martin against a decent Arizona rush defense from a year ago, but one that’s not great up front projected this season & the path for Martin having 100+ yards and 1-2 scores is just too clear to fade at his price. They had a blowout a week ago so he only ran for 54 yards. He’ll get that in the 1st half.
Darius Taylor ($7800 – Minnesota)
Adam Mohammed ($7600 – California)
Cal should be running it a good amount at Syracuse this week and Mohammed’s pretty much their bell cow back to do that with some receiving upside to go along with that. While the Syracuse stack is the lead for me in this game, the California RB1 is probably the top overall play in the game.
VALUE
Shavane Anderson Jr. ($4600 – Syracuse)
Cal gave up 277 rush yards at 10.5 yards per carry to UCLA last week. Anderson Jr. ran for 102 yards and 3 TDs on 10 carries in his debut. The two reserve Syracuse backs behind him on the depth chart are both questionable. At $4600 and under 1 percent projected ownership, he is the tournament piece in the Syracuse stack.
Umari Hatcher ($6200 – Syracuse) & Cole Weaver ($4800 – Syracuse)
Hatcher is the clear ceiling player, but a cheaper pivot or second addition in a full stack would be Cole Weaver at $4800. The quick note on Weaver is that I think as the transfer here he will get a little more run than he did a week ago. But the clear alpha is the 6th year Senior Hatcher for your cash game and ‘safe’ builds. I’ll probaly roll with Weaver as my primary WR1 in a tournament build but Hatcher in stacks is a no brainer.
Collin Dixon ($5500 – Illinois)
We go from a must in the Syracuse game to another must Orange team in Illinois. Dixon hauled in six catches for 70 yards and 2 TDs in Week 1 against UAB. Duke’s secondary is a portal build in their second game together. The matchup grade is the second-best for any WR on this slate and Houser described Dixon as knowing this offense better than the coaches. It is the softest receiver matchup on the slate, against a Duke secondary that ranked 134th in FBS in passing yards allowed last year. Cash anchor.
Mario Craver (Texas A&M – $6900)
The first two WR spots this week are clear for me to roll with Cuse/Illinois exposure. The third is where I lean into a sleeper pick this week. Ignore his first week 5-41 line as it means nothing because Craver is the best receiver in this game and the guy Marcel Reed goes to when a matchup gets real. Last year’s 8-207-1 at Notre Dame came against a legitimate secondary, and that’s the profile here: Arizona State brings one of its most physical corner rooms in years, but it’s a unit with almost no snaps together, and physical is exactly where I see Craver winning as he gets off the line clean from the slot and should be able to just run gaps through the Sun Devils.
HONORABLE MENTION
- Chase Hendricks ($5400 – California)
- Jeremiah Hasley ($4900 – Duke): Going back here this week. I expect Eget to play better.
DEEPEST POSITION FOR S-FLEX
Without question the deepest spot is going to be WR this week because there’s a good path to rocking 2 value WR and then just taking safe plays at RB and QB. The QB depth is better with more good game scripts this week though so that’s probably the second lean on Super Flex usage.
BEST VALUE POSITION
Wide Receiver
CORE PLAYS
QB – Katin Houser (Illinois)
RB – LJ Martin (BYU)
WR – Mario Craver (Texas A&M)
TAILGATE PLAY OF THE DAY
Mario Craver – WR – Texas A&M
TOP BETS
- Michigan ML/Michigan +5.5: The 5.5 theory is back for another year of testing it. It’s across NFL and CFB (heavy in NFL) and when the team is a 5.5 dog, not only do they cover, but they WIN out right. All the money has come in against Michigan after their miracle win (theft) last week but the line has not moved one bit. They’re at home & definitely will want to make a statement here.
- The other 5.5 game on this slate is Duke at Illinois, which I don’t hate taking Duke plus the points but I cannot see them winning outright.
- BYU -7.5
Live Bets to watch for
- Syracuse ML: The 3 and a hook doesn’t speak to me very cleanly but I like Syracuse to win outright, so finding them potentially at even money in game or -2.5 would be favorable.