Six games on this slate have a spread of 19.5 or bigger with the non high spread games pointing to some high scoring affairs. Overall, it’s gonna be one of those College Overs Weekends.
SMU at Louisville (OU: 59.5, Louisville -1.5)
The best game on the slate and it isn’t close. Near pick-em, highest total on the board, and two quarterbacks who have both been slinging it for two weeks. Kienholz has 300+ passing yards in both of his starts and Kevin Jennings has averaged 292 passing yards and 7.2 yards per carry in his two career games against Louisville. He knows this environment.
Louisville is also down three receivers, which means the targets pile up on the guys left standing. Stack both sides and don’t let anyone talk you out of the bring-back.
- Lincoln Kienholz (QB – Louisville)
- Tre Richardson (WR – Louisville)
- Lawayne McCoy (WR – Louisville)
- Kevin Jennings (QB – SMU)
- Yannick Smith (WR – SMU)
Mississippi State at South Carolina (OU: 58.5, South Carolina -4)
I love the Cocks this week.
No, the Gamecocks you dirty fool. But the point in this game is that it’s all about the two Quarterbacks which are #1 and #2 on the entire slate and it’s not even close IMO.
Mississippi State is averaging 50 points a game through two weeks (62-13 over ULM, 38-13 at Minnesota) and runs 74 plays a game, the fastest pace in this matchup. Now they go into Columbia for the SEC opener against a South Carolina team that’s playing faster too, 70 plays a game after 63 last year.
Give me the Taylor and Sellers build to start things off.
- Kamario Taylor (QB – Mississippi State)
- LaNorris Sellers (QB – South Carolina)
- Anthony Evans III (WR – Mississippi State)
- Nyck Harbor (WR – South Carolina)
LaNorris Sellers ($8100 – South Carolina)
Another 119 yard rushing game isn’t likely, but for certain the Gamecocks QB will be pushing his ceiling today since they’re finally playing a real opponent.
Super Kamario Taylor ($8800 – Mississippi State)
He is the engine of their offense with designed QB runs built in and has a knack for being able to find the end zone with his legs as well. Going back to last season he has four straight 25+ DraftKings scores and if we throw out the Missouri game he missed most of it’s really 6 in a row since he started being the man for the Bulldogs. The price will keep folks away because of the build difficulty, but we can find our value elsewhere.
THE REST OF A DEEP QB ROOM
Devon Dampier ($9400 – Utah)
Top rated QB on the board and the rushing floor is ridiculous. 18 of 24 for 261 and 2 TDs plus 2 more on the ground against Arkansas last week. Utah State is 125th in pass yards allowed and 111th against the run, so pick your poison. The only thing that stops him is Utah going up 35 and sitting him. 26.1% projected ownership. He is the chalk.
Lincoln Kienholz ($7400 – Louisville)
He gets an SMU defense that ranks 135th in pass yards allowed, at home, in the highest total on the slate. At $7400 that is a solid price-to-upside QB play. 15.9% projected ownership.
Kevin Jennings ($8200 – SMU)
430 yards at Florida State in the opener, then 14 of 16 for 337 and five touchdowns against UC Davis. If you’re building a double QB lineup out of the SMU/Louisville game, this is the other half of it.
Wayshawn Parker ($7000 – Utah)
Six total touchdowns in two games. Three against Idaho, three against Arkansas. Utah State is 111th in rushing yards allowed and their own backs ran for negative yards against Washington last week, so Utah is going to have the ball a lot. The risk is he’s watching the fourth quarter from the sideline, but he’ll have his in the first half. 24.2% owned and at $7000 you can afford to pair him with Sheppard.
Nate Frazier ($6700 – Georgia)
Frazier has 10 carries all year. Ten. That’s not a demotion, that’s Tennessee State and Western Kentucky. Georgia was up 40 by halftime both weeks and the backups got the fourth quarter. He still turned those 10 carries into 127 yards and 4 TDs. Now Georgia goes on the road for the SEC opener, and they’re going to need their RB1. He’s the same guy who ran 173 times for 947 yards and made third-team All-SEC last year. Arkansas was 116th in the country against the run last year (185.9 a game), and they rebuilt the whole defense over the offseason. So far that new defense gave up 4 rushing TDs to Utah last week. Our model has him at 16.9 with a 21 point ceiling, and he’s about 11% owned at $6700. Great mid-range spot.
SECOND STRING
King Miller ($7500 – USC) / Waymond Jordan ($6100 – USC)
Rutgers will keep this game close and I think they do it with a good defensive performance which will force USC to be balanced & if they are smart they do it on the ground as Rutgers is 131st in the country in rushing yards allowed at 209.9 a game.
Nate Sheppard ($9200 – Duke)
35 carries for 227 yards and 2 TDs in Week 1. 24 for 147 and a score plus 2 receiving TDs last week for 42.3 DK points. This offense is Sheppard, then Sheppard, then maybe a pass to the tight end. Duke is a 10 point home favorite so the script stays with him all day. He’s going to be 34.7% owned and he’s worth every bit of the $9200. Chalk in cash.
Tre Richardson ($6100 – Louisville) & Lawayne McCoy ($4600 – Louisville)
Richardson had 806 yards and 7 TDs at Vanderbilt last year at 17.5 yards a catch and he walked into a room that’s now missing three receivers. He is 4.7% owned in the best game on the slate. That’s the whole pitch. McCoy is the cheaper second piece at 3.0% and he just went 3 for 102 and a touchdown against Villanova. Richardson is my cash WR, McCoy is how you get a third Louisville piece into a full stack without paying for it.
Anthony Evans III ($6500 – Mississippi State)
He should be Kamario Taylor’s first read every time it matters and it’s the same line every week. Start with Taylor, pair him with Evans.
Yannick Smith ($4000 – SMU)
When (not if) Jennings does throw it, that will be the value on the slate. Knight, Smith and Cooper are all projected to be good plays. Right now Yamir Knight is likely the highest owned and has 7.7 and 6.9 DK points to show for it. I’ll take the teammate who went 5 for 107 and a TD at Florida State to keep producing. There’s also a logical build here to play both Smith and Knight or at min two of Jennings WR and just pivot off him as a rusher and then do the QB game stack in the MSST/SC game.
Braden Pegan ($6000 – Utah)
Here’s your revenge game. Pegan caught 60 balls for 926 yards and was First Team All-Mountain West for Utah State LAST year. Now he transfers to Utah and gets his old team at home, against a defense that’s 125th in pass yards allowed.
HONORABLE MENTION
- Kayden Dixon-Wyatt ($5200 – USC): 6 for 102 against Fresno and more targets coming his way with USC’s top guy out.
- Nyck Harbor ($3900 – South Carolina): 618 yards and 6 TDs last year. He’ll be 20.8% owned at $3900 so he’s no secret.
DEEPEST POSITION FOR S-FLEX
QB, easily.
BEST VALUE POSITION
Wide Receiver
CORE PLAYS
QB – LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina)
RB – Wayshawn Parker (Utah)
WR – Yannick Smith (SMU) and/or Yamir Knight (SMU)
WR – Anthony Evans III (Mississippi State)
TOP STACKS
Mississippi State/South Carolina: Taylor + Evans III, bring it back with Sellers/Harbor
SMU/Louisville: Kienholz + Richardson + McCoy, bring it back with Jennings or Yannick Smith
TAILGATE PLAY OF THE DAY
Braden Pegan – WR – Utah
TOP BETS
Kansas +5.5: The 5.5 theory rides again. Arizona State is laying 5.5 on the road and every time we see that number the dog doesn’t just cover, it wins the damn game. Yes, Kansas has four quarterbacks on the injury report. Yes, they just lost to Missouri. I don’t care. Home dog, 5.5, we ride.
SMU/Louisville OVER 59.5
South Carolina -4 (Going against my own models here, so probably sharper just to take the over?)
RUTGERS +21.5: They slow it down, this turns into a running game battle and they’ll cover.