Sit down. Lemme tell you how this works. Our guy writes the Tailgate, the games get played, and then somebody has to come in and check the books. That’s me. If a call’s good, I say it’s good. If it stinks, I tell you it stinks. That’s the service.
This is Tailgate Week 2, the 9/12 main slate. Short version: the cash side of this card was money, and the bets came in clean. But the lead stack, the one the whole article was built around, the “load up on Syracuse” stack, went belly up. So the books are mixed. Some money coming in, one very big debt.
What if there’s an obstacle? We handle the obstacle. Let’s open the ledger.
THE GOOD
Collin Dixon ($5500 – Illinois)
“Cash anchor,” the Tout said. Softest receiver matchup on the slate, Duke’s portal-built secondary. Dixon paid. Dixon paid with interest: 11-166-3, 48.6 DK points, the #1 WR on the slate, 8.84 points per thousand, on 28.8% ownership. The model had him #3 among WRs, so this was the article and the model shaking hands. Right read, right result.
via GIPHY
Kamario Taylor ($8300 – Mississippi State)
“The legs floor him in any game script.” That’s what he wrote, and that’s what happened: 16/22, 227 yards, 3 TDs, no picks, and 13-86 on the ground. 28.7 DK points, #4 QB on the slate, at 10.9% owned. Model had him #2. A beautiful thing.
Katin Houser ($7400 – Illinois)
The Core QB and the model’s #1-rated quarterback (87.4). He threw for 271 and 3 TDs with a pick, 23.6 DK points, #7 QB on the slate at 5.6% owned. Illinois lost the game at home and he still gave you a solid number. Didn’t pay big, but it paid. Good process, fair return.
Mario Craver (Texas A&M – $6900)
The Tailgate Play of the Day. I’ll be straight with you: 3-34-1 for 12.4 points is not a Play of the Day line. But the model had him #8 at WR with a 12.46 projection, and he scored 12.4. That’s the projection on the nose, at 2.2% ownership. At $6900 that’s not a winning number, but it didn’t sink you either. Nobody got rich. I’m filing it here because the call held up, not because it smashed.
THE BAD
Darius Taylor ($7800 – Minnesota)
“He is healthy, he is home, and he gets the volume. Chalk in cash.” He got 6 carries for 15 yards and one catch for 5. 3.0 DK points on 30.8% ownership. Mississippi State won 38-13, so the game script ran him right off the field. The model had him #6 at RB, so this wasn’t a crazy call. Mostly variance, a game that got away. But when you write “chalk in cash” about a guy in a near pick-em, you’re betting the game stays close. It didn’t.
Mason Heintschel ($7600 – Pittsburgh)
This one’s on the books as process. “He is the chalk,” the Tout wrote. Our model rated him #17 among QBs (42.0) even with a 21.59 projection, so the model was waving him off. UCF-Pitt finished 7-12. Nineteen total points in a game with a 55.5 total. Heintschel: 212 yards, no touchdowns, 9.8 points on 23.0% ownership. Seven TDs in Week 1 was the narrative. The model didn’t buy it, and the model was right.
LJ Martin ($6500 – BYU)
Core RB, the model’s #1-rated back, 41.6% owned. He ran 20-98 with 2-27 receiving and no touchdown. 14.5 points. The “100+ yards and 1-2 scores” call came up two yards and a score short. Right call, wrong day. It happens. Nobody’s getting whacked for that.
Adam Mohammed ($7600 – California)
“Probably the top overall play in the game.” 19-74 plus 5-14, 13.8 points at 28.0%. The model had him #2 at RB, so again, the process was fine. Cal won the game. Mohammed just didn’t get in the end zone.
THE AMAZING
Dixon, 11-166-3. 48.6 points was the top WR score on the whole slate, and our guy called him a cash anchor, the kind of play you’re supposed to be boring on. When your safe play goes for 48, you’re in business. Fuhgeddaboudit.
via GIPHY
THE UGLY
The Syracuse stack. This was the lead of the article: “My top team total over this year is Syracuse… Load up on Syracuse’s passing game.” Syracuse scored 18 and lost at home to Cal, 21-18.
Here’s the full bill:
- Steve Angeli: 24/49, 306 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs. 15.8 points at 21.2% owned.
- Umari Hatcher: 6-77, 13.7 points. Model had him #48 at WR.
- Cole Weaver: 0.0 points. The Tout said “I’ll probably roll with Weaver as my primary WR1 in a tournament build.” Model had him #26.
- Shavane Anderson Jr.: 9-18, 1.8 points, “the tournament piece in the Syracuse stack.” Model had him #19 at RB.
What are we doing here? The case for this stack was desperation, coaching jobs, and a cross-country trip. That’s a story, not a number. The model’s #1 WR on the whole slate, Chase Hendricks, played in this same game for the other side and got bumped to honorable mention. He scored 14.0, more than Hatcher or Weaver. And the cheap guy nobody named, Justus Ross-Simmons ($3000), went 6-105 for 19.5. If you wanted Syracuse, even the stack you built was the wrong one. This is the debt on the books this week, and it’s a process debt.
via GIPHY
THE MODEL
Plainly: when the article stuck with the model, it made money. When it went its own way, it mostly lost.
Agreed and right: Houser (#1 QB), K. Taylor (#2 QB), Dixon (#3 WR). Agreed and short: Martin (#1 RB, 14.5), Mohammed (#2 RB, 13.8), D. Taylor (#6 RB, 3.0). Went off the model: the Syracuse group (Hatcher #48, Weaver #26, Anderson #19) and Heintschel (#17 QB). All of it came in under, and Weaver and Anderson combined for 1.8.
The model had its own misses. Correlation with actuals: RB was solid (rho 0.584 on rating, 0.603 on projection), WR was weak (0.318 / 0.376), and QB was close to a coin flip (0.269 / 0.223). Top-rated busts: Keelon Russell (#5 QB) scored 7.6 with 2 picks, Dante Moore (#3 QB) scored 14.7, Jordon Davison (#3 RB) scored 8.3, and Alex Perry (#2 WR) put up a zero. The top-10 rated RBs averaged 14.4 against 17.3 projected. The top-10 WRs ran hot, 16.9 against 13.3.
The slate-winners the article never mentioned:
- Nate Sheppard (RB, Duke): 44.8, model #4 at RB. Dixon’s game. The model had him. The article was already in that game and still missed him.
- Reed Harris (WR, ASU): 9-189-2, 42.9 at 1.9% owned, model #40. Other side of the Craver game.
- Fame Ijeboi (RB, Purdue): 42.6, model #21.
- Drew Mestemaker (QB, Oklahoma State): 41.6 at 0.24% owned, model #24. Nobody saw that one coming, the model included.
- Anthony Evans III (WR, Mississippi State): 28.7, model #6. Kamario Taylor’s guy. The Tout had the QB and didn’t mention the stack partner.
- Gio Lopez (QB #8) 30.9, Bear Bachmeier (QB #15) 30.4. Bachmeier was the BYU QB in the game where the Tout bet BYU, and he out-scored Martin by 15.9.
THE BETS
- Michigan +5.5 / Michigan ML: Michigan 17, Oklahoma 10. Cashed, and the ML too. The 5.5 theory cashed. Home dog, won outright, just like he said.
- BYU -7.5: BYU 28, Arizona 17. Won by 11, covered. Cashed.
- Live: Syracuse ML: Cal 21, Syracuse 18. Syracuse never won the game, so however you got in, that’s a loss.
- The Duke aside: “I don’t hate taking Duke plus the points but I cannot see them winning outright.” Duke won outright, 31-27. It wasn’t a listed bet so I’m not scoring it, but it was right there. Our table has Illinois at -6, not 5.5, for the record.
Pregame Top Bets: 2-0, 3-0 if you count the Michigan ML on its own. The live lean lost. Our guy is in the black on bets this week.
THE VERDICT
Grade: B-
The cash core and the bets carried the week: Dixon 48.6, K. Taylor 28.7, Houser 23.6, and a clean Michigan-and-BYU card. The grade comes down because the article’s lead thesis was a narrative stack the model didn’t support, and it came back 0.0 and 1.8 on the tournament pieces. Take this into next week: when the model says #48 and #26, the story has to be a lot better than “desperation mode.” And when you’re already in a game, like Duke-Illinois, check who’s on the other side.
The books are closed. We’re square this week, mostly. Capisce?