Sit down, sit down. Close the door. We’re opening the books on the Tailgate for Week 4, the Saturday 9/26 slate. Our guy walked in with a Florida story, a Texas story and a 5.5 theory, and I got the finals right here on the desk.
The short version: one of those stories paid like a slot machine, one of them is a debt, and the theory cashed twice. The Tout called Ole Miss at Florida “my favorite spot of the week” and he was right about nearly all of it. Then he made a Texas receiver his Play of the Day, and that receiver caught one ball.
So we got money coming in and money going out. Lemme tell you which is which.
THE GOOD
Jadan Baugh ($9100 – Florida)
“I just don’t see any reason why Baugh wont continue to be a bellcow.” Neither did Florida. 29-142-3 on the ground plus a catch for 12, 37.4 DK points, #2 RB on the slate at 23.0% owned. He was the model’s #1 RB and a Core play on the card. The Tout and the model agreed on the expensive chalk, and it paid at 4.11 points per $1k. Good chalk is still good.
Carlos Hernandez ($6000 – Wake Forest)
Filed under “going fishing for one-offs,” and this guy came back with a marlin. 9-194-1, 36.4 DK points, #2 WR on the whole slate at 15.9% owned. The model had him #15 at WR, so our guy picked him out of the pack. The reasoning was “Wake is chasing all day,” and Wake actually won the game 30-27, so the script was off. The target read was dead on. I’ll take it.
Lincoln Kienholz ($9000 – Louisville)
27 of 36 for 324 and a score, plus two rushing touchdowns. 29.1 DK, #3 QB, 9.0% owned. The model had him #5 and the article agreed. Right call, right process.
Wayne Knight ($8400 – UCLA)
“This is the RB I’m paying up for outside of Baugh.” Knight went 10-100-1 with 3-35 through the air, 25.5 DK, #3 RB at 8.2% owned. The model had him #3 too. The Tout named two pay-up backs and they finished #2 and #3 at the position. That’s a beautiful thing.
Trinidad Chambliss ($7700 – Mississippi) and Deuce Alexander ($7600 – Mississippi)
The bring-back side of the Florida stack. Chambliss: 25 of 34 for 298 and a score, plus 7-44-2 on the ground, 30.3 DK, #2 QB. Alexander: 7-134-1, 29.4 DK, #5 WR at 4.3% owned, and the model had him #41. Our guy listed both and told you “dont fade in gamestacks.” Good advice. I’ll get to the part where he talked himself down on Chambliss.
THE BAD
Dallas Wilson ($6400 – Florida)
“Everybody’s clicking Baugh and nobody is clicking the guy who scores the other Florida touchdowns.” Florida scored 52 and Wilson caught 2 balls for 11 yards. He did get a rushing touchdown, which is how you get to 9.7 DK and #35 at WR. The model had him #27, and the article called him “a lock” and put him in the top stack. The game read was right. The guy was wrong.
Malik Washington ($7200 – Maryland)
“Maryland’s terrible yes but they shouldn’t be a home dog against UCLA.” UCLA won 54-3. Washington went 18 of 38 for 142 with four interceptions, 1.5 DK. That’s process. The take was a feeling about a bad team, and the scoreboard answered the feeling.
Gavin Freeman ($5500 – Baylor)
A Core play: 6-59-1, 17.9 DK, #12 WR. Not a disaster. But he was 39.8% owned against a 22.77 projection, and 17.9 doesn’t separate you from four out of ten lineups. Right read, no edge.
Byrum Brown ($8500 – Auburn)
The Tout called him a one-off, but he also wrote “Brown + Manning is the S-FLEX build I like the most.” Brown was the model’s #1 QB at 36.6% owned and gave back 20.3, #6 at the position. Right call, wrong day. Nobody’s getting whacked for Brown.
The honorable mentions
Chris Durr Jr., the “walking 10-100 guy,” went 7-56 for 12.6. Jordan Faison got 10.6 at 16.7% owned. Keshaun Singleton, “the safe one,” got 8.8. Ed Small got 5.1 and Waden Charles got 4.4. Charles was called a longshot in print, so no interest on that one. Singleton I’m charging a little, because “safe” is a promise.
THE AMAZING
The Swamp
“Florida has hung 44+ on everybody this year… They’re getting 40+ again Saturday.” Florida 52, Ole Miss 28. Eighty points in a game he had at 59.5. He bet the side, he bet the over, he made the back a Core play and he told you to bring it back with Chambliss. Florida -3.5 covered by three touchdowns. Baugh, Chambliss and Alexander put up 37.4, 30.3 and 29.4. When our guy says “Love Love Love Florida” and the whole game goes the way he drew it up, I write it in the book in ink. Fuhgeddaboudit.
THE UGLY
The Texas Stack
This is the obstacle, and we handle the obstacle. The Tout called it “the Arch Manning shine game.” Manning was the lead QB and a Core play, Coleman was a Core play and the Play of the Day, Smothers was in the stack, and Brandon was the bring-back. The books:
- Arch Manning: 14 of 19, 201 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT. 6.9 DK, #21 of 26 QBs.
- Cam Coleman: 1 catch, 30 yards. 4.0 DK, #62 of 116 WRs.
- Hollywood Smothers: 0.0.
- Faizon Brandon: 10.0 DK, #18 QB.
Texas won 20-17. That’s 37 points in a game he wrote up at 55.5. The pitch was that the early start “smells more like a shootout.” A noon kick is not a stat.
Here’s what I want our guy to hear. The model had Manning #4 at QB, so that piece was defensible. It had Coleman #24 at WR and Smothers #26 at RB. The article took two pieces the model didn’t love and made one of them the Play of the Day. The Texas back who scored was Raleek Brown, 17-67-2 for 21.5, and he isn’t in the article. What are we doing here? That’s not a bad beat. That’s the narrative running the card.
THE MODEL
Plain numbers. Rank correlation between our rating and actual points: QB 0.293 (0.515 on projection), RB 0.664, WR 0.48. RB was strong, WR was decent, QB was shaky. The top-10 rated QBs averaged 18.7 against 23.1 projected.
Agreed with the model and was right: Baugh (#1 RB), Knight (#3 RB), Kienholz (#5 QB). Payne (#2 RB) gave 18.9 at 25.9% owned, and Nimrod (#3 WR, 16.2) and Sherrill (#4 WR, 15.5) were fine for the price.
Went off the model and won: Hernandez (#15 WR), Alexander (#41 WR) and Chambliss (#12 QB). Three of the best lines on the page came from the Tout’s eyes, not our ratings. Credit where it’s owed.
Went off the model and lost: Coleman (#24 WR), Smothers (#26 RB) and Wilson (#27 WR).
The model’s own misses: Brown (#1 QB) got 20.3. Singleton (#2 WR) got 8.8. DeAndre Moore Jr. (#5 WR) got 0.0. Bo Jackson (#4 RB) got 9.9 at 22.3% owned. On the other end, Duke Clark (#48 RB) ran 12-126-1 for 21.6 in the Florida game, Talyn Taylor (#102 WR) scored 24.0 and Reece Vander Zee (#66 WR) scored 23.6.
Slate winners the article never mentioned:
- Jeremiah Smith (OSU), model #1 WR: 12-217-4, 60.7 DK, the best score on the slate. The model’s top receiver, and the article skipped Illinois at Ohio State entirely.
- Wayshawn Parker (UTAH), model #8 RB: 49.9 DK at 6.4% owned, in the same game as the Flora play.
- Julian Sayin (OSU), model #7 QB: 42.6, #1 QB.
- CJ Carr (ND), model #3 QB: 27.5. The article took Faison and James out of that game and not the guy throwing it.
- Joseph Williams (COL), model #20 WR: 34.7. JJ Buchanan (MICH), model #18 WR: 33.0.
THE BETS
- Florida -3.5: Florida won 52-28. Cashed, with 20 points to spare.
- Iowa +5.5: Iowa won 20-19 outright in a 39-point game. “This is a rock fight and I want the points in a rock fight.” The points cashed, and the ML he whispered about in italics cashed too.
- Iowa State +7.5: “Upset alert.” Utah won 31-17. A 14-point loss doesn’t cover 7.5. Loss.
- Mississippi/Florida OVER 59.5: 80 points. Cashed.
That’s 3-1 on the Top Bets, plus the moneyline. One note for the ledger: in the write-up he said Texas -4 looked like too much for some people, “Not me.” Texas won by 3. It wasn’t on the ticket, so it doesn’t count against him, but it would have lost.
THE VERDICT
Grade: B-
The favorite game of the week was the best game of the week, the two pay-up backs finished #2 and #3, and the tickets went 3-1. That’s an A day. Then there’s Texas: two of the four Core plays went for 6.9 and 4.0, and the Play of the Day was one of them. That’s what drags the grade down a full letter.
For next week: when the Tout goes off the model, make it a one-off like Hernandez, not the Play of the Day. When the game read is that good, stack the guys the model has, not the 1.1% guy. And the kickoff time stays out of the reasoning until there’s a number behind it.
Florida paid. Florida paid with interest. Texas is a debt, and we collect next Saturday. Capisce?