Sit down. Close the door. We got Tailgate Week 6 on the desk, and lemme tell you, this one’s got a little of everything. Money coming in from the quarterbacks, money coming in from the big backs, and then one very large debt with a green and yellow helmet on it.
Our guy opened the article like this: “Oregon is going to boatrace the fuck out of UCLA.” He said it twice so the people in the back could hear it. Oregon scored 15. UCLA won the game, 17-15.
So that’s the hook. But I keep honest books, and the honest books say the Tout also hit the best quarterback on the slate against our own model, and found two of the top five backs. Let’s go line by line.
THE GOOD
LaNorris Sellers ($7200 – South Carolina)
“Rating says no. I say yes.” That’s the line. Sellers was #12 on our QB board, 11.28% owned, and he finished #1 at the position: 23 of 35 for 279 and 4 TDs, no picks, 14-20-1 on the ground, 35.2 DK points. And the read on the game was right too, South Carolina won 38-19. Going against the model and getting paid for it, that’s the job.
Drew Mestemaker ($8000 – Oklahoma State)
“Best tournament QB on the slate.” Close enough. He was #2 at the position: 19 of 28 for 304 and 2 TDs plus a rushing score, 29.4 DK points at 12.56% owned. Model had him #13. Another one where the Tout saw something the board didn’t. Bowick came along for the ride, 6-98-1 and 21.8 at 8.36%.
Nate Sheppard ($9700 – Duke) and Cam Cook ($8900 – West Virginia)
Both in the RB section, both paid. Sheppard went 27-99-2 with 7 catches for 91, 38.0 DK, #3 RB. Cook went 34-141-2, 29.9 DK, #4 RB at 12.81%. Our guy said “I cannot write up RB and not mention Cam Cook here.” Good instinct. Write him up every week.
Wayne Knight ($8000 – UCLA)
The bring-back in the Oregon stack. The one piece of that stack that did anything: 22-103-1 rushing, a receiving TD, 29.5 DK, #5 RB, at 4.02% owned. “If UCLA scores at all, it’s him.” It was him. A beautiful thing, just attached to the wrong side of the game.
Aidan Laughery ($5800 – Illinois)
“Our 12.5 projection still treats him like the RB2. He isn’t.” He wasn’t. 19.4 DK, #7 RB, against a model projection of 13. Small money, but it’s money, and the reasoning was right.
THE BAD
Caleb Hawkins ($7100 – Oklahoma State)
Core play, top stack, 29.18% owned, #2 RB on our board. 23-83-0, 12.5 DK. Oklahoma State put up 42 and the backfield didn’t get in the end zone. The model liked him, the Tout liked him, the price was fine. Right call, wrong day. Nobody’s getting whacked for that.
Junior Sherrill ($5700 – Vanderbilt)
Another core play, another model favorite at #5. 5-55-0, 10.5 DK at 14.36%. Vandy lost 52-17, so the “behind and throwing” script showed up and he still didn’t eat. Variance, mostly.
DJ Epps ($5400 – West Virginia)
“My favorite play in it.” 1-7-0, 0.7 DK. The model had him #3 at WR, so our guy wasn’t freelancing. He also said it himself: boom or bust. It busted. On the books as a loss, not a sin.
Michael Hawkins Jr. ($9000 – West Virginia)
“Eat the chalk.” The chalk was 23.49% owned and gave you 24.6: 25-98-1 rushing, but 11 of 28 passing with no TDs. Not a disaster. Just not what a $9000 QB projected at 29.51 is supposed to hand back, especially in a game that went for 83.
Isaiah Mizell ($3900 – Arizona)
Here’s one that stings. “I’ll be under the field here.” Mizell was the most owned player on the slate at 31.6% and went 6-183-2, 39.3 DK, #3 WR, 10.08 points per $1K. Best value on the whole board. The Tout faded him for Chris Hunter, and Hunter isn’t on my sheet, so I can’t tell you what he did. I can tell you what Mizell did. Fading the chalk is a fine idea when the chalk is bad. This chalk was a $3900 receiver in an 83-point game.
JaKyrian Turner and Turbo Richard
Turner, the “Value” tag: 5-27-0, 2.7 DK. Turbo, off the high ankle: 8-10-0, 1.0. What are we doing here. Both small mentions, both zeroes.
THE AMAZING
Sellers. The Tout looked at our rating, said “I don’t care,” wrote down the legs and Florida’s pass defense, and the guy finished as the #1 QB on the slate at 11% owned. That’s not luck, that’s a guy with an opinion and a reason. It’s the best thing on the card.
THE UGLY
The Oregon stack. Play of the Day, two core slots, the top stack, the lead of the article and a Top Bet. Here’s how it came back:
- Dylan Raiola: 6 of 19 for 43 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs. -2.0 DK. Dead last of 26 quarterbacks at 15.58% owned.
- Dierre Hill Jr.: 10-44-0, 6.9 DK.
- Evan Stewart: 5-74-1, 17.4. The one guy who showed up.
- Messiah Hampton, the “play both” swap: 3-14-0, 4.4.
- Jordon Davison: 13-41-1, 9.9.
And here’s why it’s in UGLY and not BAD. This wasn’t the model’s play. Our board had Raiola #10 at QB, Hill #14 at RB, Stewart #20 at WR. The Tout built the whole card around a backup QB’s 36 attempts and a story about anger after a bye. That’s a narrative, and the data didn’t sign off on it. When you lead with it, put it in Play of the Day, and bet it at -11.5, that’s one debt stacked four times. Fuhgeddaboudit.
THE MODEL
Plainly: the model was solid at RB and shaky at QB and WR. Spearman rho by rating was 0.607 at RB, 0.482 at QB, 0.425 at WR. Projections did a bit better at QB (0.543) and a bit worse at RB and WR. The top-10 rated RBs averaged 20.4 against a 20.5 projection, about dead on. Top-10 QBs came in under (19.6 vs 21.5), and WRs too (14.5 vs 15.4).
Where the article followed the model and won: Cook (#3 RB), Sheppard (#4 RB), Cayden Lee (#4 WR, 7-94-1, 22.4 in honorable mention), Fifita (#3 QB, 27.7). Where it followed and lost: Caleb Hawkins, Sherrill, Epps. Where it went off the model: Sellers, Mestemaker and Laughery paid; the Oregon stack and the Mizell fade cost it. Call the off-model calls a wash, with the biggest swing on the wrong side.
The model’s own misses: Charlie Becker #2 WR, 8.2. Kwazi Gilmer #6 WR, 6.1. Justice Haynes #5 RB, 6.9. Kewan Lacy #6 RB, 9.9. And Graham Knowles rated #1 at QB at 82.3 with a 3.93 projection, then scored 0.0. A rating that high on a guy projected for 4 points is a bug, not a read. Somebody should look at that.
The money the article never mentioned:
- Jamal Roberts (RB – Missouri): model #1 RB, 34-222-2, 41.0, #1 RB on the slate. The board’s top back, not in the article at all, while Cayden Lee from the same team made honorable mention.
- Patrick Overmyer (WR – Houston): model #15 WR, 8-83-4, 40.4, #1 WR.
- Nick Marsh (WR – Indiana): model #7 WR, 6-187-2, 39.7 at 3.49%.
- Jaziun Patterson (RB – Michigan State): model #24 RB, 38.9.
- Conner Weigman (QB – Houston): model #8 QB, 4 TDs, 27.8 at 4.03%.
- Keyone Jenkins (QB – UCF): model #6 QB at $5400, 25.9, 4.8 per $1K, 2.69% owned.
Deep longshots the model didn’t see either: Trelain Maddox (#41 RB) 28.9, Bailey Stockton (#59 WR) 29.7.
THE BETS
- Arizona/West Virginia OVER 60.5: 52-31, 83 points. Cashed, and it wasn’t close.
- Oregon -11.5: UCLA won 17-15. Lost against the spread and lost outright. Our Homecoming Hannah agent had the same ticket, for what it’s worth. It’s worth nothing.
- Illinois -2.5: Illinois won 38-37. One point. At -2.5 that’s a loss. Right side, wrong number. It happens.
- UCF/Oklahoma State OVER 53.5: 42-28, 70 points. Cashed. “Sleeper game. I like POINTS here.” He was right.
- Akron +5.5 and Akron ML: Akron’s game isn’t on my sheet. No final, no grade. I don’t make up numbers.
So 2-2 on the bets I can grade. Both overs came in, the Oregon ticket died with the stack, and Illinois missed by a hook and a half.
THE VERDICT
Grade: C
The quarterback calls were the best in the room. Sellers and Mestemaker were the top two QBs on the slate and the Tout had both of them while our model had them twelfth and thirteenth. The backs were good. The overs were good.
But the article was built on Oregon, and Oregon was off the model. Next week: if the lead play isn’t on our board, it doesn’t get the Play of the Day, two core slots and a bet. Pick one. And check the #1 back on our board before you write the RB section.
That’s the books. Some came in, one big one didn’t. We handle it. Capisce?