Sit down. Close the door. We gotta go over the books on Tailgate Week 7, because this one’s a two-ledger situation.
On the DFS side our guy ran a clean operation. His core QB and core RB both paid, he named the top QB on the slate, he put the $10000 back in the lineup, and both of his fades went in the dirt. On the betting side? One for five. Lemme tell you, that’s a lot of money going out the back door.
So here’s how we handle it. We give the Tout his credit where he earned it, and then we talk about Oxford and Baton Rouge, because those two games are where the debts are.
THE GOOD
J’Koby Williams ($6700 – Texas Tech)
“This is the chalk I think goes off. If you fade him, you’d better be right.” He went off. 11-165-2 on the ground, 33.3 DK points, the #3 back on the slate and 4.97 points per $1k on 39.17% ownership. The model had him #1 at the position. Chalk that’s worth the price is still a good call, and nobody fading him was right.
Avery Johnson ($7500 – Kansas State)
Core QB and the Tailgate Play of the Day. 14 of 24 for 209 and a TD, plus 12-132 on the ground, 28.6 DK, #5 QB on the slate at 14.06% owned. The model had him #2 and projected 23.51, so he cleared it by five. The Tout said he’d get loose on the ground against that Kansas run defense, and he got loose. Money in.
Ethan Grunkemeyer ($7000 – Virginia Tech)
“That’s a passing drill for Ethan Grunkemeyer.” 15 of 22, 250 and 3 TDs, plus a rushing TD, 30.5 DK, the #1 QB on the slate at 12.34%. He even said “he doesn’t run” and the guy went 13-25-1 on the ground anyway. Doesn’t matter. It paid.
Nate Sheppard ($10000 – Duke)
“You just plug them in for the automatic 25+.” 20-77 rushing, 11-98-1 receiving, 34.5 DK, #2 back on the slate at 8.28% owned. Paying ten grand for a guy the room mostly skipped, and he hands you 34.5? A beautiful thing.
The fades
Arch Manning: “Let everybody else have it.” Everybody else had it, at 18.12%, and got 9.9 DK. Bryce Underwood: “Hard pass.” 0.8 DK, 5 of 11 for 43 and 2 picks. Fuhgeddaboudit. The SMU “No, thanks” also held: Kevin Jennings went for 20.4 at $8200, Jalen Cooper went for 1.9, and the one exception, Kendrick Raphael, got his 22 carries for 124 and 16.8 points. Short of the ceiling, but the read on that game was right.
Donovan Olugbode ($5500 – Missouri)
Honorable mention, “the second piece of a Mizzou stack.” 9-127, 24.7 DK, #6 WR on the slate at 5.63%. The model had him #31 at receiver. That’s a call against the model and it hit. I gotta be fair about it, even if the rest of that game is coming up in THE UGLY.
Also worth a nod: Isaiah Marshall 23.7 at $5800 as the bring-back, Jordan Shipp 19.5 at $5100, and Jaron Tibbs 18.1 at $5000 as the cheap K-State pairing.
THE BAD
Cayden Lee ($7400 – Missouri)
5-62, 11.2 DK at 18.37% owned. The model had him #2 at WR, so on its own this is a right-call, wrong-day thing. Nobody’s getting whacked for following the volume.
Austin Simmons ($5600 – Missouri)
The yards showed up: 25 of 44 for 339. The touchdowns didn’t. Zero TDs, a pick, 14.8 DK. Revenge game, best total, all the narrative you want, and Mizzou scored 3 points. He wasn’t the problem in that offense, but he didn’t get you there.
Luke Reynolds ($6100 – Virginia Tech)
“The stack piece.” 2-18, 3.8 DK. Here’s the thing that stings: the Grunkemeyer stack was the right idea. The guy who caught it was QueSean Brown, 6-182-1, 33.4 DK at 8.84%, rated #13 by the model, two spots ahead of Reynolds at #15. Right building, wrong apartment.
Josh Manning ($4500 – Kansas State)
4.4 DK. The cheap K-State WR call went half and half: Tibbs paid, Manning didn’t. And “any Kansas State WR” missed the guy who actually broke in that game, Joe Jackson, the running back, 27-159-1 for 27.2 DK at $5000.
THE AMAZING
The Tout’s core went 2 for 3, and the two that hit were a 28.6 and a 33.3. Add Grunkemeyer at #1 and Sheppard at #2 among the backs, and the article named the #1 QB and two of the top three RBs on the slate. On a 12-game slate, that’s a guy who knows where the money is.
THE UGLY
Mississippi State at LSU. The article called it “a 33-32 game.” It finished 31-0.
Off that one read the Tout put Mississippi State +15.5 and the Over 57.5 on the bet card, made Winston Watkins Jr. a core play, and put Anthony Evans III in his games section with “Kamario Taylor is questionable, and I don’t care.” Taylor put up 0.0. Evans got 7-40, 11.0 DK. Watkins, the core WR, went 4-31 with a negative rush, 6.1 DK at 9.48% owned.
What makes it worse is the LSU passing game did go off. Sam Leavitt went 31 of 38 for 289 and 4 TDs, 28.7 DK, and he was the model’s #1 QB. Jackson Harris went 6-85-2, 26.5 DK at 4.97%. The article had neither. The model had Watkins #22 at WR. Making a #22 guy your core WR off a shootout script the data didn’t back? That’s not variance. That’s a process thing.
Then Missouri at Ole Miss: “Close game, points on both sides, and Mizzou covers.” 31-3, Ole Miss. Two games built on a shootout, and the two losing sides put up 3 points between them.
THE MODEL
Plain numbers. Spearman rho by position, rating against actual: QB 0.518, RB 0.656, WR 0.49. Projections did a little better at QB (0.622) and WR (0.542). The top-10 rated RBs averaged 22.3 actual against 20.0 projected, so the model nailed the backs. The top-10 WRs averaged 14.6 against 15.1, about on the number.
Where the article rode the model, it got paid: Williams (#1 RB), Johnson (#2 QB), Grunkemeyer (#6 QB), Sheppard (#4 RB), Overton (#2 RB, 20.4 on 26.42%, fine but no smash). Where it went off the model, it’s a split. Olugbode (#31 WR) hit. Watkins (#22 WR) and Deuce Alexander (#24 WR, 5.0 DK) didn’t.
The model’s own busts: Jamal Roberts, #3 RB, 8.0 DK on 19.97%. Jeremiah Smith, #1 WR at $9700, 4-68-1, 17.0 DK. The Tout told jokes and asked for “3 TD?” He got one. Cayden Lee #2 WR at 11.2, Andrew Marsh #6 WR at 5.1.
The slate winners the article never mentioned, with model rank:
- DeSean Bishop (RB – Tennessee): 32-159-2, 35.5 DK, #1 RB. Model #8, 5.06% owned.
- Chase Sowell (WR – Penn State): 11-151-1, 35.1 DK, #1 WR. Model #29, 0.77% owned.
- QueSean Brown (WR – Virginia Tech): 33.4 DK. Model #13.
- Byrum Brown (QB – Auburn): 26-115-1 rushing, 30.5 DK. Model #16, 2.52% owned. The Georgia “No, thanks” was right that Georgia wouldn’t roll. Auburn won the game outright.
- Sam Leavitt (QB – LSU): 28.7 DK. Model #1.
- Charlie Becker (WR – Indiana): 9-165, 28.5 DK. Model #5, 4.92% owned. The Tout backed off this game for DFS, and the read that “the Ohio State defense makes a statement” was right, 19-15 and well under. But the model’s #5 WR at under 5% came out of it anyway.
- Joe Jackson (RB – Kansas State): 27.2 DK. Model #12.
Sowell and Byrum Brown came out of games the model didn’t love either. Bishop and Becker, the model had in range and the room didn’t.
THE BETS
Graded at the numbers the article printed.
- Kansas State -3.5: Won 35-24. Cashed by seven and a half. The bounce-back read was right.
- Mississippi State/LSU OVER 57.5: 31 total points. Lost, and not close.
- Mississippi State +15.5: Lost 31-0. Lost by 31.
- Missouri +5.5: Lost 31-3. Ole Miss covered by 22.5.
- Duke -3: North Carolina won 24-20 in Durham. Lost.
1-4. And three of the four losses came off the same idea: points in those two SEC games. When the Over and the dog both ride one shootout script, you’re not making three bets. You’re making one bet three times.
THE VERDICT
Grade: B-
The DFS card was an A-minus. The core QB and RB paid, the top QB and two of the top three backs were on the page, and the fades were perfect. The bet card and the LSU-Mississippi State read drag it down.
Carry this into next week: trust the model at receiver before you make a #22 guy your core. When you play a stack, check who else catches the ball. And don’t let one game script carry three bets.
The books are closed on Week 7. Our guy’s still in good standing. Just don’t let me see a 33-32 call on the card unless the numbers say 33-32. Capisce?