SLATE INTRODUCTION
We kick things off on Monday with the main slate featuring all new series and that is my favorite kind of Monday. Seven games on both sites, as we have site synchronicity and the slates lock at 7:10 PM EST on both sites.
WEATHER
- Cool in Texas so the Rangers likely open the roof…
- No word on Arizona roof, doesn’t matter to me today it can only help.
- Wind blowing out to right ~9 MPH in Cleveland.
- And elsewhere …
This pitching slate is not like Sunday’s and that’s a nice thing. Loaded. Very loaded. And I can smell this a mile away — DraftKings has softened their pricing. Go look and tell me it’s not soft. Then do the math. Why would they want softer pricing?
Well, naturally to make it easier for casual players to come in and play. We are three weeks away from NFL Week 1 and really by the time you get to Thursday this week it’s two weeks away. There’s going to be a ton of promotional advertising by DK to get new players in. I would include FanDuel in this, but let’s be frank, their promotional advertising probably consists of paying some kid $15 an hour to go stand on the side of the road in a state where they are banned to promote their product. I can see it now, there’s some poor schmuck kid in Alaska who is saying why the f*** do I have to do distance learning? We live in Alaska. Nobody is coming up to Alaska and catching COVID and if they do that’s the least of their worries because they’re likely going to geat eaten by a grizzlie bear before they die of some other disease, and if they do get the disease then they get eaten by a bear anyways and the bear gets the disease and then the whole world is screwed because we have mad Bear disease problems. And nobody wants that. So yes, FanDuel, I will gladly go stand on the side of the road in my giant fur coat and sip on my fathers flask with a giant sign that says come join our $3 BEST BALL CONTESTS NOW IN THE LOBBY ON FANDUEL DOT COMMMMM…
I think I got a little off topic there, but the point is the soft pricing seems to be to draw casuals into MLB with their money. We’ll see if it sticks all week.
I have 10 pitchers tonight who grade out as favorable plays in my mind. Which tells me you dont have to force a spend up for a guy.
Jesus Luzardo
DraftKings continues to have a flaw in their algo related to games in Texas. They still think this is an extreme hitters park and the Rangers are good offense. Neither is true and considering Luzardo is in the top elite tier of talent in MLB he should in no way be overlooked today. His last start was down right filthy as he was on regular rest and came out for the 7th inning as he finished with 7 K, 2 BB and only 4 hits allowed. Yeah the roof is probably open tonight in Texas, but it’s gonna open because it’s relatively cool in the Dallas area. Make up for your sins yesterday and get some Jesus tonight.
Trevor Bauer
Bauer wins clearly over Flaherty because he’s actually pitched this month. And Milwaukee against RHP? Not good Bob, not good. The assurance we always get with Bauer is that no matter what you can rely on this guy to go out and throw as many pitches as the manager will allow him to throw and that’s normally well into the 100’s. The times we ignore Bauer are when he is facing a team who doesn’t strike out at all and can draw lots of walks against him or when it’s a team who has seen him 3 or 4 times. So yeah, Milwaukee has seen him, but quite honestly half the Brewers lineup couldn’t tell you what they ate for breakfast three days ago, let alone what Bauer’s gonna throw at them today. I am tempted to force a way to get Bauer in on FanDuel at his $12,00 price tag, because nobody else will pay for him with some of the other options today. But alas, that feels foolish the more I look. He’s a DK play.
Outside the Box
It’s very hard for me to consider anyone outside of the two guys above today. Especially on FanDuel, where you can only roster one pitcher and the discount on Luzardo there is very extreme.
Casey Mize
The Cubs offense is about to have a fairly good week believe it or not. They’re going into Detroit and then going into Cincinnati and ice cold hitters like Contreras, Baez and Rizzo are going to have fairly good weeks this week. But tonight is the one night we can avoid them possibly with Mize on DraftKings if you want to get very aggressive on paying up for some hitting. Mize will make a mistake or two but the real measurement tonight on Mize is going to be walks. He has fantastic command and what the Cubs lefties making a living on is being patient in their approaches at the plate. I can see them trying to be very patient and falling behind 0-2 which leads to a bunch of strikeouts for Mize if his great command is on.
I will also not be shocked if at the end of the day you see Mize put up a great score on DK through 5 innings and then the Cubs wind up putting up 6-7 runs off the Tigers bullpen and horrific defense. So my outside of the box play today? Lock in Mize and Contreras together into the same lineup on DK because you are playing Casey for the strikeouts and just assuming Rizzo tries to lean into a pitch because he’s a giant douche bag who has no prayer otherwise.
Guys I am not on who grade out well, doesn’t mean I hate them though …
Mostly not on these guys because it’s a deep pitching slate.
- Alec Mills – Will be better tonight as he has been good against bad teams — but a few spots to navigate through.
- Jack Flaherty – Has pitched one inning this entire month. I know it’s the Royals but it is 90+ degrees in St. Louis today and I bet he only pitches 4 innings.
- Brad Keller – Has been fantastic but now has no Salvy catching him and just does not get enough strikeouts to warrant using.
- Framber Valdez – I expect Houston to win but he has the worst K match-up on the board against the Angels.
So yesterday someone might have wrote an article talking about the vegas run totals in the Wrigley Field game. Wasn’t me. But if they did, I want you to remind them that their statistical analysis banking on implied run totals is about as useless as air yards and nobody likes Air Yards.
Minnesota Twins
Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Jake Cave
LiC season with the kings of LiC. Kepler and Rosario going into Minnesota. This might be the ole Tyler Flowers-Chris Sale theory too and NONE of you have any clue what I am talking about so just ride with it. You see, the theory was that Flowers and Sale who used to be on the same team had such a cosmic connection that after they were separated if Sale was pitching and Flowers was playing elsewhere, Flowers would homer. This continued once Flowers actually got to face Sale and he ended up taking him deep EVERY SINGLE TIME. Soooo, fast forward to the Twins and you are wondering what the ever loving heck does this have to do with the Twins against Civale? Nothing. But guess who the Twins have murdered in Cleveland. I mean, MUR-DERED. Just about every Indians pitcher. But there’s one specifically, and he is pitching today. So yeah, the cosmic universe is going to roll out some LiC today.
It also doesn’t hurt that Rosario, Kepler and Cave are all playing very well lately.
Arizona and Colorado
Christian Walker (ARI), Nolan Arenado (COL), Nick Ahmed (ARI), The Marte’s (ARI)
These teams make runs and make money whenever they meet up. Neither pitching staff has great history against the other hitters and we’ve got Blackmon ready to snap out of his slump which the whole world saw coming a mile away + Nolan Arenado coming in after a day off in L.A. yesterday to get the mind right. This is an angry goats situation and Nolan at 5% hitting 2 doubles and a homer tonight will be a great way to cap off the slate.
However, after all that waxing poetic about the Rockies waking up, it’s the D’Backs bats which have been colder than ice cold. Coming back into their hitter friendly park where they are comfortable and drawing Ryan Castellani. Castellani has made three starts which have gone better than most anticipated but they were all against AL West teams and now he gets his introduction to the fun that is Rockies-Diamondbacks games.
CATCHER
- Alex Avila … Sorry Contreras, but we have Alex Avila coming out of nowhere to start for the Twins tonight. Who knew?
- Willson Contreras … For those who don’t know he is my slump buster pick for this week.
- Curt Casali
- Cam Gallagher … Nothing more than a DK punt on a #CatcherMonday
FIRST BASE
Christian Walker is a must for me today, but if you wanna game stack Twins-Indians and attack Maeda off his epic start last week then roll with Slamtana.
- Christian Walker
- Carlos Santana
- Jeimer Candelario
SECOND BASE
Holy cow, this position doesn’t stink for once.
- Ketel Marte
- Mike Moose Tacos … You know we’re having Taco’s tomorrow for sure.
- Luis Arraez
THIRD BASE
SHORTSTOP
- Nick Ahmed
- Trevor Story
- Paul DeJong
For those of you who want to keep playing Francisco Lindor … your time is coming …. Just wait….
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rusmore
- Eddie Rosario
- Max Kepler
- David Peralta
- Kyle Tucker … Playing extremely well and Sandoval is a rare reverse splits LHP.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Starling Marte
- Charlie Blackmon
- Nicholas Castellanos
- Jorge Soler
OUTFIELD – Value
- Kole Calhoun
- Tyler Naquin
The Dongers Club
- Eddie Rosario – OF – Minnesota Twins – Chairman of the Dongers Club
The Rest of the Club
- Max Kepler – OF – Twins
- Christian Walker – 1B – Diamondbacks
- Alex Avila – C – Twins
- Nolan Arenado – 3B – Rockies
- Nick Ahmed – SS – Diamondbacks
- Kyle Tucker – OF – Astros
- Jason Kipnis – 2B – Cubs
BONUS
- Tyler Naquin – OF – Indians