SLATE INTRODUCTION
I saw once again some people who remain ignorant about choosing the right contests and thus did not find themselves in a good spot. Then I see good members who are talking between each other about proper contest selection and joining into smaller contests where they are not sweating every single play on the board and doing just fine against any “known” user that you can think of in the DFS world. You could have a very good night last night even without the stellar no hitter by Lucas Giolito. Yes, the Gerrit Cole and Yankee/Brave PPD was a major boost for those who didn’t have him (like us) and I won’t say that the positive results from last night didn’t get helped tremendously by that. But even with a Paddack as an SP2 on DK I was able to return a positive result and you know what, that’s 80% of DFS slates. Just getting positive results is far better and far more important than the once in a month win that is 10x where you can screenshot it. We have folks who have boosted up into the $300 per night range in their contests simply by using good contest selection to become a better DFS player.
It’s a combination of choosing GOOD contests, accepting 5x as a great win and understanding that you don’t need to play lineups with random 5 man Seattle Mariner stacks just to get CUTE because someone who isn’t helping anyone win wrote them up as a Tier 3 stack for that day and thought they just cured COVID.
FanDuel.
My FanDuel….
They have actually included the Blue Jays home game today on the Main slate. Who knows actually why they did this, and lets assume it doesn’t happen again but I love it and the slate locks at 6:37 on FanDuel where as DK locks at 7PM. DraftKings posted their slate before the Yankee game was PPD last night so they have Yankees/Braves players on their main slate but they WILL NOT count — so dont use them!!
WEATHER
- Boston at Toronto … Nevermind what I said above. It appears everything FanDuel touches turns to shit these days as the weather looks terrible in Buffalo. I’m doing my breakdown earlier than usual today and won’t have a chance to update but this looks less than good right now. With the 7 inning double header rule teams are more likely to PPD games. If it starts in a delay then STAY AWAY…
- If it plays and things are clear then it’s an obvious hitters park to look at and yeah, Teoscar Hernandez….
- All other games look good.
Overall there’s some big names out there today and this appears as a ‘Great’ pitching slate to some. Not me. I think it’s actually thin but that could be due to my hate for guys like Tiajuan Walker and Dinelson Lamet who are in a game which I have no desire to pick on either offense with guys like them.
PITCHING
Jacob deGrom
I have zero hesitation with deGrom today. Yes, this is his third start in a row against the same Marlins team and yes he has not gone past the 6th inning in any start this season. Those are the two exact reasons why I love him today. A mediocre pitcher who has to see the same lineup multiple times in a row is bound to get beat up, but deGrom is obviously no mediocre pitcher and the edge to me leans heavily in his favor when you also consider the Marlins lineup has been changing over quite a bit so it’s not exactly the same guys. He’s at home and the Mets could really use him to go deep today so as long as he doesn’t pull a finger or do something “Met’ish” today he’ll be through 7 innings without any damage.
Sonny Gray – DK Only
I would only use Sonny Gray in a lineup with deGrom on DK. deGrom to me is the far better play today on FanDuel and is a must on DraftKings as well. So what do we know about this spot? We know that Milwaukee strikes out a ton and overall is not a good lineup. But they have shown some signs of life back at home lately and the Yelich-Hiura-Smoak part of the lineup can do some damage here. I personally do not expect a smash game from Sonny Gray today — but he doesn’t need much at his DK price.
Mike Fiers
Fly ball pitcher who likes to get away with stuff up in the zone meets the Graveyard — which does play a little better these days but it still houses the Texas Rangers. Nothing sexy, but his win bonus will be nice today.
Outside the Box
Jon Lester
You would think that nobody will trust Lester today after his horrific outing last week at home against the White Sox when the whole world seemed to know he would get lit up like a Christmas tree. Today the temptation to play him is real against Detroit. They have the highest strikeout % of any team in any match-up today based on projected lineups. Detroit in 2020 against LHP is striking out 27% of the time and his $9,000 price tag on DraftKings looks insane to many, but you’ll take an 18 from him today considering some others won’t be as clean. He bounces back today.
Guys I am not on
- Berrios & Clevinger
- Kershaw – Not so much the Giants power (thats so weird to type) but that they do not strikeout enough.
Twins and Indians
Lindor, Ramirez, Kepler
Love this game to the moon. We have two good pitchers going in Berrios and Clevinger but in the case of Berrios he is coming off that elite start we jumped on and now we run away as Francisco Lindor has a ton of energy after the Twins have pissed him off. You woke the dragon Minnesota, good job. Jose Ramirez and Frankie Lindor are prime to have another game tonight but it will stand out much more to DFS players because they’ll see them at the top along with some exposure from the Twins side. Clevinger coming back after being cast away due to the COVID issues will certainly get some strikeouts but he’ll also give up homers — including Mr. Max Kepler.
Oakland Athletics
Canha, Piscotty
Oakland pops off the charts even in this pitcher friendly ballpark today and normally we think of the big name bats here but do not overlook Stephen Piscotty who has been hitting extremely well lately and along with Mark Canha has hammered cutters all season long. Those two are primary value plays to lock in on DK today.
OTHER SPOTS TO CONSIDER
Arizona Diamondbacks
Peralta, Calhoun, Marte, Ahmed
Give me the D’Backs here today over Colorado as Arizona finally gets a win… Believe it or not, Robbie Ray has managed to do just well enough at home against Colorado and to me there’s no reason to consider anyone beyond Story/Nolan for the Rockies and I’ll spend my money on deGrom instead thank you. The roof should open when the D’Backs come up to bad and they’ll find a way to get 7 runs today once the Rockies bullpen which — was fantastic last night — comes into a game. I have a belief that if a mediocre to bad bullpen has a lights out game, you attack them the next day.
P.S. Mariners bullpen also fits that theory as well — so consider San Diego in another good spot today
POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN
CATCHER
- Willson Contreras — Boom! Ride this hot streak as he’s a nice value play on FD again.
- Cam Gallagher
FIRST BASE
- Carlos Santana
- Eric Hosmer
- Justin Smoak
- Cody Bellinger … If the pitching didn’t demand spending $ he would be hard to pass up today. Has been the hottest hitter in baseball over the past week.
SECOND BASE
- Mike Moustakas – FD … Houser gets hammered by lefties. His time to shine.
- Jake Cronenworth – DK
- Cesar Hernandez
THIRD BASE
- Jose Ramirez
- Maikel Franco – Birthday!
SHORTSTOP
- Francisco Lindor
- Marcus Semien
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rusmore
- Max Kepler
- David Peralta
- Stephen Piscotty / Mark Canha … Either is fine but I wouldn’t be shocked to see one of them move up to #2.
- Teoscar Hernandez – FD Only
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Starling Marte
- Eddie Rosario
- Franmil Reyes
OUTFIELD – Value
- Matt Kemp … Making good contact lately, he’s your Rockie value bat to consider.
- Hunter Dozier … Remains cheap and has benefited from the Royals shifting Soler to #2 and him to #3
- Lots of the guys in the top tier are value plays today
THE DONGERS CLUB
The Dongers Club
- Mike Moustakas – 2B – Cincinnati – Chairman of the Dongers Club
Co-Chairmans Specials!
- Max Kepler – OF – Twins
- Jose Ramirez – 3B – Cleveland
- Stephen Piscotty – OF – Oakland
The Rest of the Club
- Francisco Lindor – SS – Cleveland
- Cody Bellinger – 1B – LA Dodgers
- Willson Contreras – C – Cubs
- David Peralta – OF – Diamondbacks
- BONUS …………… Starling Marte – OF – Diamondbacks